Good Saturday afternoon. We continue to watch a developing winter storm for Sunday night and Monday. This is likely to bring accumulating snows to much of the region. A heavy swath of snow looks to set up from southwest to northeast. Exactly where that band sets up is the forecasting headache I face.
This is going to be one of those storms that a matter of a few miles makes all the difference between a small amount of snow and a thumping. Here’s another attempt to hone in on the areas that have the best shot at 4″ or more of snow…
The latest European Model snow forecast isn’t too far away from that…
That’s a heck of a gradient between a lot of snow and a little snow. The same model run follows the trend of bringing Tuesday morning single digit lows to those with snow on the ground…
Record lows will be possible with temps struggling into the low 20s for highs. Snow showers and squalls will be around on Tuesday and those can drop some light accumulations into the eastern half of the state.
Another system looks to bring wintry weather our way by the end of the week into the weekend.
Before we get to all that… a batch of light snow and flurries will roll our way this evening and tonight. This could bring some action into parts of the region with the greatest concentration across the north.
I will update things as needed this evening. Take care.
So…. Chris, the Euro was on top of this last night after all! It smelled out the northern shift before the other models. As always…. great job, Chris! I love your blog.
As expected, the NW shift to the usual Ohio river area. I expected it due to the model trend, but not really welcoming it. Salt crusted cars for (at best) an ankle biter. Boo!
Sorry Bubba…we like our snow in Louisville.
I figure we topped out at 30″ on the NE side of the city last winter. So, let’s go for 40″ this year!
Ps- I really do hope we get a big snow in for your area this winter.
No surprise here. What would be a surprise is a shift SE. That would be up there with a football Cats SEC championship.
I don’t think I’m going to read a week out again wait until the day before then check see that way we don’t get our hopes up
I feel your pain Marsha, maybe we will get on little action Tuesday like Chris said.
Wise not getting hopes up since the only thing that pans more than two days out is ice.
Well, might go north of LexTown? Hope we get a little snow love anyway.
We’re off to a fine start for the coming Winter season!
Thanks, Chris.
We shall see what we shall see ….only hide and watch!
NWS in Louisville is “waiting for another round or two” of model runs before issuing any headlines. The high res models are spooking them from making a bad call too early. Guess they are afraid of the NAM High Res and warmer spiking up.
Yeah, they basically kind of almost said nothing to see here.
Who’s gonna blink first?
I trust BG more than any other MET in Louisville.
I’m also beginning to like RK (Ryan Hoake) also from Wave3.
He sends out numerous tweets and info.
CB is still my favorite “Kentucky MET. 😉
I used to chat w/ Ryan on Belski’s Blog years ago when he was still in high school, saw him do a guest spot on WAVE3 one evening, and he was always consistant and very good about his forecasts. BG does well, too…he doesn’t “jump the gun’ like most do, keeps you updated on any changes.
Fear the trend…
And laugh at models greater than two days out 😉 Maybe one……
Usual hopes being up to nothing for Southern Kentucky. Hope we get in on some of the action with the snow squalls on Tuesday.
Yup. I knew better than to let myself get excited.
Nelson county was one of the sweet spots all week and now it will be farther north. Sigh. Trend always wins.
NW shift is a given. Southern IN. to the River will be the end result. Still has another 36 hours to move further NW.
The way things are going, another 2-3 model runs will place the storm completely in Indiana. I love snow, but on the bright side… without the heavy snow cover, temps won’t be as low and that is definitely a good thing.
Models are holding strong over Louisville and have been for 24 hrs now (including the 18z runs)
There are two givens in this world: snow letdowns in KYand the UK football team stinking up the place.
Latest WPC has Louisville and bordering Ohio River counties in a Moderate risk for 4″+. Confidence is building that this could be WSW criteria.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
This must be the hardest place to forecast snow for in the United States. So many different forecasts. Some saying 1-3,some saying more than that,some saying rain and very little snow.
I’ve always heard Louisville sits in very challenging lat/longitude. Then factor in the river, the heat island, the valley, the gulf moisture, the dry Canadian air, etc…etc…lol.
Will Southeast Ky ever get in on the snow love? I sure miss the late 70’s when we all got real snow. It sure is a challenge to forecast with so many factors at play. Thank goodness Chris has some of the old school forecaster in him. That is why I can depend on him so much more than others.
Does not look like it. Based on what maps CB posted, seems the risk area should be further NW.
Paducah has issued WWA for much of its area in WKY and southern IN. Rogers says rock on!
So far se ky is like last winter. Sll rain no snow for our area. Maybe at some point we will get in on some snow action.
Far southern ky got a pretty good snow once lst year. I was in rain section of that system also.
Where’s Rolo? He who pats self on back should also eat humble crow. Choice of sauce of course 🙂
Be careful what you say lest you be accused of being a troll. 😉
True dat
The European had this track on Wednesday night, the new GFS was close, old GFS was way too far to the east. I wouldn’t mind seeing more of a NW shift. It’s too early for snow days!