Good Wednesday to one and all and thanks a bunch for dropping by the blog. Many areas picked up a fresh accumulation of fluffy snow overnight with the heaviest amounts falling across the southeastern counties. The snow shower and flurry parade is going to continue out there today and will likely last into Thursday. Just as this latest storm wraps up…. we start to focus our attention on the next few systems that will be rolling in here this weekend and early next week.
The term “snow showers” implies that it will not snow the entire time so there will be some periods of not a lot of action out of all this. You can track the flakes here…
The GFS suggests some more light accumulations will be possible through Thursday with southeastern Kentucky having the best shot at picking up a few more inches…
Regardless… any one snow shower can put down enough snow to cause some nasty travel so take it easy on area roads through Thursday.
Friday looks a little better… but I still can’t rule out some leftover flakes in the east.
The models are going to have a lot of trouble grasping what is going on in with the overall weather pattern across North America over the next week. Arctic air is going to finally flood Canada as our southern branch of the jet stream comes alive once again. This is leading to some wild run to run swings in the various forecast models for this weekend and early next week. The GFS is likely to be the model that struggles the most in this situation… but all of the models will have issues.
For this reason… I am back to riding the back of my old friend the GFS Ensembles. Here is what it shows with a fast moving system shearing out through here this weekend…
That could bring a swath of snow across the region and we will be updating that over the next few days. The bigger storm is likely to roll in by later Sunday into Monday and Tuesday as we get a southern branch storm to crank up. This is where the models are all over the place. Some take the low right over our heads toward the Great Lakes while others take it well to our south. The Ensembles seem to be a compromise and look a lot like what the model consensus had been showing a few days back…
That storm system really has my attention and the blog will be paying very close attention to this one. Again… trust NO model right now. 
Regardless of what track that storm takes… odds strongly favor a very cold shot of air to move in by the middle and end of next week.
I will update things as needed later today so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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I am willing to take the cold if that snow falls, lol. The Sunday-Monday storm looks rather nice. It also sounds like the snow on the ground may not have time to melt before more snow falls on top of it which is cool.
Also, I posted at the end of the last comments. Click my name to go to my gardening blog for pictures from this past snow. There are two different posts’ of pictures.
Jake
Thanks Chris!
Regarding my HVAC…Well the compressor is under warranty through Trane….but not the labor…..950 dollars labor charge!……..so lets do the math…..2 summers ago….the capacitor went out 250 repair…..three months later…..coolant tube in the outside unit had a leak….500 dollars…….and now this….so 1800 dollars in 5.5 years living here. I can’t include the 199/year preventative maintenance because that’s not really a repair, but still…….Totally sucks!…..Sorry, I had to RANT
Oh this is going to be one of those storms that is going to give forecasters a massive headache before, during and after. This has the potential to be a doozey… but the question is for who?
Loved them all but especially the one with a faint sun shining behind the tree-tops. Gorgeous! Liked your gardening blog…inspires me to get busy starting some cuttings.
FIRE IN THE HOLEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!
OK Captain. What do you see on the ole horizon for next week.
I know your pain…. I learned a long time ago when they say compressor it is time for a new unit….
No snow last night, so I am counting on the kids going back to school tomorrow 😉
$250 for the capacitor? Wow. It’s like a $3 part and takes about 5 minutes to replace.
I would also shop around on the 199/year preventative maintenance. $100/visit is STEEP. Most of it you can do yourself other than check coolant levels, and the coolant level should never change (it’s a sealed system.) But if you want the maintenance for peace of mind you should be able to find it for $100-$120/year.
Sun/Mon Storm has my full and upmost attention, watch out for this one… Very reliable new model has the battleground setting up just around lexington, with freezing rain and rain south of there before the artic air takes over, it brings over 1.25 of QPF into Louisville, Lexington, Bardstown… If the Artic air can dig a little bit more, we have 93 all over again folks >;)
Can someone tell me what this means?
Here is the latest on what the Louisville NWS says about Monday’s system…..
THE OPERATIONAL EURO IS MUCH SLOWER AND COLDER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MORE STABLE CONTINUITY IN THE EURO…HAVE REALLY TRENDED THE FCST CLOSER TO THE 17/00Z EURO SOLUTION. THUS…WILL INCREASE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS STORM AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
Morning fellow blog buddies…..Chris, as usual always interesting this time of year…. 😉
We got a surprise dusting last night here in Somerset. (We kind of gauge how slick it is if our independent system is out or on a delay.) I have no idea how it melted day before yesterday and yesterday, but melt it did. We have snow on the ground, but, it is more of a nuisence snow than anything.
Hope the ones next week get us all, if they come our way. IF not, I am ready to see buds on the trees, and grass growing. (Sorry, folks….guess I am truly drifting to “The Dark Side.”) Hey, someone has to take Bubba’s place! 😉
We might get HAMMERED! LOL
OUCH!!! That has to hurt. That makes me all the more glad that I have insurance. A few years ago we were offered insurance through our mortgage company that covers any repairs including labor to our heating or cooling units. Everything is covered 100% except for a $50 deductible. If the repairs cost too much they will cover a whole new unit. It costs $19.95 a month. But hey, you proved them wrong – You can stop a Trane.
well got another 1″ of Fluff overnight, just enough to reek complete havoc on the side roads YET AGAIN!…Driving on flat ground is one thing, but coming off of Mini Mt. everest is another…LOL..Driving the wife off every morning, then walking 3/4 mile back up in the snow is beginning to be my morning exercise routine…It sure isnt gonna hurt…:)
I see LMK is jumping on the EURO train for a Monday-Tuesday storm..
JKL..seems to think southern ky. will see temps. in the mid 40’s, with rain/snow mix from saturday-tuesday. I guess we’ll see.
looks like LMK..is on the EURO train for the early week storm!!
JKL…seems to think southern Ky. will see temps. in the low to mid 40’s with rain/snow mix!! from Sat.- Tuesda.
Once I read the whole discussion, LMK was just showing the Euro as ONE solution to the early week mess!
The EURO model is has the storm moving very slowly over the area. It is also showing much colder air and will keep us in the snow vs rain. Since the storm is moving slowly and the air will be cold, there is a good chance for significant precipitation (snow most likely in this case). Of course this could all change when the model is run again.
The EURO model is has the storm moving very slowly over the area. It is also showing much colder air and will keep us in the snow vs rain. Since the storm is moving slowly and the air will be cold, there is a good chance for significant precipitation (snow most likely in this case). Of course this could all change when the model is run again.
What very reliable new model?
If you want spring, DONT READ THIS!!..:)
this is what J.B. just posted on his blog just a bit ago…
TUESDAY 9 A.M.
MAJOR TROUGH TO BUCKLE INTO THE EAST NEXT WEEK WITH COLDEST AIR MASS RELATIVE TO NORMAL TO ATTACK BEHIND MAJOR WINTER STORM.
Now that I have your attention, the post on this will come later.
Models, and the European is now in the waffling zone, are having trouble with the phasing over the East. Again, the reasons are 1) Mega cold air, not recycled stale maritime air, will get into the pattern next week, upping the baroclinic (feedback) ante. 2) Here comes the southern branch, upping the ante.
More later
…………….
I TOLD YOU NOT TO READ!!!…LOL!!
I am an HVAC Contractor In NKY….sorry but I take offense to some of what you are saying about brands, etc. I respect everyone’s opinion, but I have been in this business since 1992 and what most consumers do not realize is the cost of doing business. A contractor comes to your house (not you going to him/her, there is a cost associated with coming to your house (van,gas, insurance, wage or employee, and the overhead to run the business, etc.) When it comes to the part of the capacitor, it depends on what capacitor you are talking about, the one for the compressor or the fan in the outdoor unit. In our market, a maintenance agreement for a true maintenance agreement is around 250.00 for two visits. My company has the best techinicians and our company is the most highly trained when it comes to the safety and comfort of the home. It sounds to me that the company did not provide the value for you. We are providing a service to the consumer and we have a right to make a profit. I assuming that the company gave you an upfront cost before you did the work, correct? You had the opportunity to say no. Each company is going to charge differently and have different skill levels. I do not want to rant but I understand both sides as i am a consumer but also an owner of an HVAC Company. Just my two cents……
that is what i’m wondering.
My only hope is that if the Monday-Tuesday system has as much moisture as it sounds like it’s gonna have, southern and southeast KY get in on the arctic air. We can’t hadle that much moisture in the form of rain. I love snow as much as anyone, but I’m about ready for warmth and sunshine.
is the system takin a southern route for now????
CAPZ 5 Model. Its ran by a guy named Red Baron, it has absolutely nailed the last two winter storms to impact the region… Nailed it, showed trends days before it showed up on the NAM or GFS…
Interesting. I’ve seen Belski mention it on his blog, but haven’t really seen much discussion or know where to view it.
Thanks!
Yeah, its not out to public eyes, but Baron posted what the latest run said last night… Very interesting to say the least.
Honestly, I’ve heard so many negative things about Trane units in the past 15 years that I’d never even consider buying one. Sorry to hear about your issues.
where do we find it?
next mon should be the biggie of the winter the blockbuster! thinking december 2004 setup with the extreme temp gradient the nws mentions, 1-2 feet of snow for nky ice in cky and rain and 60s in sky!! 19.9” this morn!!!
http://www.emergencyemail.org/vuetoo/vue1/situationonetemplate.asp?l=u662***58***47***47t1r5.t5sp.0n5n.t18***47t1r5p1y14***47t1r5rn56***47u744vpn0rF***47p1y14_zrq***47yn6r56.w2t&c=Weather Eastern USA hope this works
that is awesome. if we could just inch the cold air further south, we could all have a big one. it sounds like last years ice storm, only 2 times worse.
http://www.emergencyemail.org/vuetoo/vue1/situationonetemplate.asp?l=u662***58***47***47t1r5.t5sp.0n5n.t18***47t1r5p1y14***47t1r5rn56***47u744vpn0rF***47p1y14_zrq***47yn6r56.w2t&c=Weather Eastern USA
Henry is saying watch out for flooding in the south esp,oh no if we warm too fast.The map was suppose to show where snow is on the ground right now.
chris what are the chances this is rain for the louisville ky area ????could be a big mess if its rain!!!!!!
local forecasters all seem to think it will be to warm for snow this weekend. I hate rain, but I love a blizzard.
Tommy boy my friend you can HAVE IT!! 1-2 ft. !!!…I think I vote for 60’s at this point…minus the rain!…:)
Does the thick blue line on the model runs represent the freezing line?
The 12Z run of the GFS is in now…and it shows an ice storm for counties north of I 64 on Sunday. This bears watching closely…
if we get ice on top of a 1.5 ft snowpack i wouldnt have to go to class for a week at least! maybe i am not so aganist ice now but another 10 in snow would be great!
watch your mouth- say its not so. 🙂
I am with ya Sue. We sure cannot handle any more rain right now. I’m done with the snow, but would rather see that than rain at this point. If I could pick, come on sunshine and 75.
what is the link?
From snow to ice… Is it Spring yet? 😉
Yes. Or if it is a map that has the red and blue lines, the blue line closest to the red is the freezing line.
One note of caution is that you are likely looking at the 850mb charts, which is the upper level air. That plays a role in precip type, but the surface temp is equally important. For example, the 850mb could be above freezing- i.e. rain. If the surface temp is freezing, you wind up sleet or freezing rain.
Keep an eye out, since ice will more likely be north of I64 for Monday. It could either be a big snow maker or a brutal mess for northern areas.
Boyle County- Fairly rapid snow melt in unsheltered areas.
Thoughts http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Thank you! I started some seed back in January, but since I have a new garden I don’t have a lot of cuttings to do. I have had to take care of the ones I got rooted right before I moved to FL and they are doing well.
Jake
Just go to the NWS national page, and link to the numerical model page from there. Basically when you compare the 850mb charts to the 2M charts, what you see is that ice is a real possibility with this system. Right now it appears that this would mainly affect areas along and north of I 64. But that’s only one run of one model and we need to see how this evolves over the next day or so. An ice storm is what we all hoped to avoid.
Yep. Temps. are in the upper 20s and low 30s statewide with only a thin layer of upper-level cloudcover. So we’re getting some good melting going on out there. A lot of dripping from buildings, roads, and vehicles.
Ice would be bad for any part of the state! Pretty much all of the state has a decent snowpack so that would definitely be the cause of lower surface temps. I don’t understand though how this can be considered a blast of cold air if it’s warm enough for rain. So where is all the warm air coming from on this run, the gulf?
RED BARON has shown up about a half dozen times on WAVE3 Belski’s blog. Whatever his CAPZ5 model is is unknown, but he has nailed the last two storm. RAKEMAKER is another that I follow and he has a M.O.V.E. WATCH (Major Ohio Valley Event) out for the next storm. He also has nailed the last two.
This one should be very fun to hype and follow over the course of the next few days…THINK SNOW….THANKS CB
How much do you know about weather? This may have been posted before. Its well worth taqking the time to read
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//matrix.htm
Another great one http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ . It also may have been posted before.
None of these will make us experts but very educational.
not much melting down here today, cloud cover seems to be holding thick today, yesterday there was more peek a boo sunshine ..today…thick cloudcover and light snow and flurries…I wouldnt mind to see some sunshine though.
what is the link? anyone.
Why is it that all the model temp profiles that I look at have the 850mb temps- I don’t see any charts with 250mb temps on them??
In HVAC Business for 22 years…Trane Dealer….have very few problems with the Trane brand in that time! Installation is everything!
2 meter temp. charts are on the NWS national numerical model page. For NAM, I found that the ARL (Air Resources Lab) has some pretty good 2 meter charts. Looking at the surface charts is a great thing…too much emphasis is put on the 850millibar charts during Winter around here.
LOL- Im totally missing something. I’ve probably just been looking at too many numbers today. Of course I’ve looked before, and either it is in a different format that Im not seeing or something…
J.B. just posted this…
The 12Z model runs putting Monday’s storm track hundreds of miles further north in some cases. This would be a rain system for us. The main question is…. have the models overdone the shift and will it go back south….we will have to wait on that.
NWS Indy says…. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING STORM AS IT MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY AND INTO OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTH AND WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT…POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THIS PAST TUESDAYS STORM. BIG QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO OHIO RIVER STORM TRACKS AND AMOUNT OF WARMTH DRAWN INTO SYSTEM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR COUNTIES ALONG EAST FORK WHITE RIVER WHICH WOULD HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS THERE DOWN AND PUSH HEAVY SNOW AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO START NEXT WEEK AGAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT ON WHO WILL SEE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS.
Did the euro shift on its 12z run
well that flood i been talking bout might just be sooner than later, very serious situation to say least for S/SE KY.
I’d say its a bit more north of I-64. None of the thermal profiles from the GFS show any freezing rain for LEX, SDF or FFT. Its more like up in the Cincy area.
Yes, the 12Z Euro is more north and all rain for KY.
Next week appears to be all rain, up to about central Ohio. And I could not be more happy. Time for spring.
Yeah……No one can argue that this has been a COLD winter…Maybe not historic snows, but snow nonetheless. I still would like to see a HUGE snow, but if not, oh well. We will soon see what the future holds.
i could be wrong but i think the 12z euro and 18z gfs are going to come to a more realistic solution in the days ahead. we are not in a pattern that is going to allow the low to track that far north, simply isnt going to happen, mark my words here folks. i could see a possible delta to western PA track but nothing northwest of that, let the models play their games because until saturday this situation is going to be fairly unclear.
I agree….got that Greenland block going on……until stuff starts breaking up, pattern’s still gonna be status quo….it’ll turn back south….
Tommy I hope you are right I think if we got a big rain storm right now we would have big time flooding……
– all of the 12z models shifted to the gfs idea for monday looks like rain then flurries deal with a low track overhead.
– late next week is the storm to watch as it looks like a snow or no deal with arctic air building back in. 18z gfs on the right track.
your on the fence everyone else is rain and potential minor flooding as well due to snow melt. 12z euro and 18z gfs were similar for the mon system.
what may happen this week will be no different than we have already had this winter but i do agree sometime this spring we will have a bad flood but this will not be it IMO
Chris did say that all of the models would be having some problems the question is are they having the problems when they are showing rain or when they are showing snow waiting on Chris’s update
andy
I know your from this area too (Know) what do you think this means for us???
well as Chris said The models are going to have a lot of trouble grasping what is going on in with the overall weather pattern so i wouldn’t put much stock on 1 day’s model runs now if they show rain again tomorrow then i would probably prepare for that but if the models go back to snow or rain/snow then its untelling i would wait for the man to update
Thanks! I am always looking for good sights like these! I have not seen this one before- thank you for posting 🙂
Anyone who is interested in looking at water levels in their area here are some good links. According to the nws/usgs – there is no potential for any major flooding over the next several weeks (at least for the Ohio River)
These are interesting to look at..
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jkl
Thanks MJ- it’s good to see ya!
Can anyone tell me what the weather will be like in Mason Ohio this weekend. I have plans to take my daughter to the Great Wolf Lodge by Kings Island. I sure don’t want to get stuck in Ohio. Thanks.
of course you realize what that means 36 and rain, last time i checked that was as bad as 32 with snow, no tulips blooming in 36 and rainstorm
This is a great site. If the USGS good get some funding for more gages it would be even better but still does a great job. Gives you real-time data so you can see what the water levels are doing.
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=ky&w=map
i don’t know about next week, late. here is the 18z gfs:
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_192HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_204HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_216HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_228HR.gif
it has absoulutly no snow for us, but a major snowstorm for the southeast and DC and a major blizzard on the east cost, including DC.
I’ve got to post resembling like tip on my blog and you gave me excellent idea. Cheers!