Good Sunday, everyone. The blog has upgraded to a Winter Storm ALERT tonight into Monday for the increasing potential for 4″+ snows for parts of the state. Pinning down this area of greatest snowfall is going to be the challenge of the day and night.
I’ve set this thing up pretty well over the past few days. I don’t have a lot of changes to the thoughts I’ve posted and tweeted lately. Here’s a breakdown:
– The day will start with some wintry weather rolling across the region. A touch of snow, sleet and a mix will kick things off. Light accumulations may be noted in some areas.
– A second wave of precipitation rolls in from the southwest later this afternoon and early evening. By then, temps will have climbed toward 40 or even the low 40s in central and eastern Kentucky. That means rain will be likely to start. As the rain starts to fall, so will the temps.
– Our southern storm gets cranking this evening into tonight as it rolls up the Appalachian mountains. That means snow takes over quickly in the west and north this evening. That snow line then crashes into central Kentucky overnight into Monday morning. Eastern Ky will likely stay all rain during this time.
– That snow line will finally reach the east and southeast during the morning hours Monday.
– Snow showers and squalls look to kick into high gear for many Monday afternoon and evening. That’s when arctic air surges in. Some accumulations will be possible from those squalls.
– The high resolution GFS seems to have the right idea on the progression of all this…
– Anytime we have a transition zone, we’re going to get some a sharp gradient setting up from several inches to lighter accumulations. Figuring out where that takes place is a toughie, but here’s how I think it shakes out right now…
A couple of things about that map: 1. The lines aren’t meant to be taken literally… it’s an approximation. 2. The numbers and approximate lines are not set in stone by any means. I will update those later today as I get a better look at how the storm is unfolding.
Arctic air surges in here Monday night and Tuesday with record cold a distinct possibility. Lows Tuesday could hit the high single digits for those with snow on the ground. Tuesday afternoon highs of 20-25 look likely with gusty winds making it feel much colder. Look for a few more snow showers to go up during the day.
Next week as a whole continues to look like January with another arctic blast showing up by the end of the week into the weekend. That may bring another round of winter weather our way.
I will have updates throughout the day. I leave you with some tracking goodies…
Current temperatures
Take care.
Time for Nowcast…only Hi-Res models and other short-term models need apply…Sorry ‘old’ GFS, take a seat.
I’ll be adding the RAP, or Rapid Refresh Model to my arsenal today, comparing with NAM and maybe this Hi-Res GFS that’s out.
I’m still holding to 1-4″ as far east as Lexington, though the NWS Louisville has yet to add them to the Advisory status yet.
It may not happen but I have a lot of respect for that potentially narrow band of heavier snow that’s still on the table and could show up anywhere along its path from Southern Indiana to Lexington.
As usual, the Wayne, Pulaski area out of the action. 🙁
Pretty neat to see this kind of snow opportunity so early in the season.
Good luck to the posters in getting in on some snow.
Thanks Mike S and always to Chris.
Great work!
Wilmington OH NWS blinks first and issues Winter Storm Warning for parts of its viewing area including the Cincinnati area and Kentucky counties of Boone, Kenton, and Campbell. 3-5″ forecast.
WSW for 3″-5″ of snow …my gracious the NWS is amazing
Given the relatively small area of the state getting a decent snow and alert, perhaps should have been subtitled : “For the Ohio River” 😉
Love CB, but NOT them there models.
Looks like an all rain event for my area of east tn…good luck on someone getting a good November snow fall..
TWC just showed 5-8″ from louisville following Ohio river northeastward..
It;s still early in the season Tim…. I have a feeling that you in East Tennessee and my area of extreme Southern Kentucky will get to enjoy a true Southern thumper sometime this winter at which time everyone else will be crying that they never get snow. (even though they average 5 times the amount that we do) lol
Roger has his tracking tools engaged and is watching. Surprise higher snow totals for some likely as upper dynamics appear to be underestimated by the modeling.
Based upon observations of the past, if it starts out as rain it will finish as rain in Powell County.
The return of the Northwest Trend, it comes with the first freeze of the season. Let’s see if that plays out. If it does, I will submit my own model – take the early models path and shift them northwest by 75 miles.
Unless the models show snow 75 miles south of us… then they stay that way… sigh.
In case anyone paid attention to the text and not the maps, which is understandable, the implication is that Central KY could be looking at a situation where transition happens around Monday morning rush hour. This is actually the most important, but unstated, take away from the weather situation given the potential for so many things to go wrong due to the heinous driving skills of many of our fellow residents.
Spread the word to your friends and neighbors to allow extra time in the morning, or try to go in a little earlier than normal to get ahead of it. Honestly, I’d rather it end up being rain than have a rush hour timed transition.
Heh, Bubba G speaks the truth. I’m sure the people and the mets from the Ohio River area get all excited during those occasions when the WKYT viewing area is getting the most snow. 😉
Temps will be rather intriguing today as long as this thick cloud cover holds with no sun breaks temps should remain in check. Downside most of us are at or just above freezing so it will not take much to warm into 40’s. Hopefully only lower 40’s and not well into the 40’s.
You will love my conversation with Bryan Shaw of WHAS11 this morning…
A few snipits- BS: I am aware of Chris Bailey. No, I don’t go to his blog. He is also known to exaggerate.
Me: Wow…how would you know, unless you go to his site? I’m willing to bet he is the most popular MET in this state. You’re obviously entitled to your opinion. I only know one station that puts out as much info as him, and that would be WAVE3. And speaking from an actual fact, WAVE3 does check his page out. I thought MET’s like to see what else is being put out there. Just to clarify, too…I never said your map was wrong just because it didn’t match CB’s.
BS: I know because Bailey and I used to be in the same market in West Virginia. I also have several friends in the Lexington market. I didn’t say you did. I just asked where it came from. That is fine that he is popular. Most mets don’t look at another forecast unless someone brings it to their attention or questions why they are different.
BS: Like I said early, plopping down 2-6″ is a huge range. The impact differences are pretty significant. That is the difference between being drivable and potentially getting stuck. That 2-6″ amount also extends far to the northeast where I do agree could get upwards of 5″ but that is out of our viewing area. So if that happens and there are 2-3″ further to southeast, then he can claim he was right. My point is, it is entirely possible both maps end up “right”.
Brian Shaw has a right to his opinion I respect that but being that said I would not discount the Louisville viewing area getting a 5 inch total somewhere. Brian Shaw is thinking that 5 maybe 6 inch snow total if it does occur will occur around maybe Gallatin County and points north toward Cincinnati which is the Wilmington Ohio jurisdiction. Systems like these drive me nuts cannot stand when it start as rain and transitions to snow. It’s always a wait and see game on timing how much deep moisture is still available when the transition occurs. Like I said this storm has all kinds of bust and surprise potential.
Oh I agree completely…. on bust/surprise potential, and on his right to opinion.
Just was a bit surprised he called CB out on his maps and having a reputation to exaggerate.
My opinion is that your stirring the pot. First of all,most of us live in rural KY and could care less what a Louisville area met thinks about Bailey. Second, assuming you had said exchange with Shaw, what’s the relevance of posting the whole conversation on CB’s blog?
I posted a snipit….not the entire Congo. That was way too long.
As far as stirring….you have a lot of room to talk.
As far as authenticity. Yea, I just happened to “guess” him and Bailey new each other and that Chris turned him down twice.
Have a great day, torch.
At first I was like… Who? Then I realized he’s the same kid who has applied to work for me twice.
I obviously went in another direction… Twice.
Be sure to tell him I said hello and to feel free to talk to me directly if he has issues with me.
Doubt that happens, though.
There YA go Chris!!
Lol…well, there you have it.
If we happen to cross social media paths in the future, I will be sure to do so. 😉
BS response to C-Biv
reminds me of a politician that is losing
an election the phrase”I do not read the polls” or when a star athelete is on a losing team the phrase “I do not read the newspapers.”
I was just reading some of the posts to see if anyone mentioned some of the models. And I know this is an older comments section. Also not commenting on anything other than that last BS section. That 2″-6″ range is needed sometimes. I have seen my county have 2″-3″ more in some sections than others. Depends on where the heavy bands set up. Love that Chris shows the potential and most often points out it depends on where the heavier bands are.
I still believe this system has big bust potential along with surprises. County’s along the Ohio River looks like the sweet spot somebody between Louisville to Cincinnati look to get a good thumping. County’s along the Ohio River if the transition happens from rain to snow between 9pm and midnight that WWA will turn into a WSW very quickly. 3-6 inches of snow should be very achievable if that transition happens earlier than expected. Statewide 1-2 isolated 3 inches look feasible with the help of backlash snow showers.
3-6 inch range wherever that deformation zone sets up
You had me with “rolls up the Appalachian’s” that is what I have been waiting for for the past four years now. Louisville has the biggest chance for measurable snow when the low rides up the Apps. Still think bust potential is there as the Ohio River has been in the sweet spot for most of the week. I really hope the NW shift is finished. If this low happens to strengthen it would pull into EKy and make for a cold rain with the heavy snow North of the river. Thanks CB for the update and l hope we all get ino the early season fun.
Whether it’s a bust, thumper or somewhere in between, none of it matters to me. Chris can’t control the weather and it’s not his fault. He does the best he can with what is given by models and trends.
a dusting to 6″+ is what i’m seeing ….I think I ll stick with that prediction
This is from Wave3 the NWS in Louisville is evaluating and considering expanding the WWA and adding some county’s to a WSW.
No way….um…I’m totally shocked….
** Sarcasm meter alert**
Every storm has bust potential, so that’s not something that should raise red flags. More often than not the computer models are correct with their data. That being said, the computer models have been consistent with the last few models. The GFS and EURO nailed down the track and gave amounts that seem possible. However, even with this data, some local Mets have still stuck with 2-4 or even 1-3 inches of snow. Heck, even the NWS in Indianapolis is forecasting more snow for Louisville than Mets that actually live in Louisville. Lol! I think Mets in Louisville are gun shy bc of previous storm forecast gone bad. Follow the data and you shall find your answer. 🙂
The warm to cold air timing is the issue, hence the shyness. The further south east, the more the infamous but very real the 32/33 rule comes into play.
Each model run, though different in snow placement had one thing in common. NW trend. Since was already showing that a few days out, the current forecast solution should be little surprise.
The bust potential I speak of is not directed at Chris Bailey or his forecast. Just that the models have been putting the Ohio River counties In the sweet spot all week. My bust speaks of the NW shift and the heavy precip going more north. Chris B. Rocks.
I agree with you, Bjenks.
The models have actually had from about Hardin County to Lexington in the sweet spot most of the time. Thursday night and Friday is when the trend shifted.
It’s interesting to see how models’ predictions have meandered over the last 3-4 days.
Euro model correctly predicted the Ohio River being the target zone as early as 11/13 but waffled a bit the morning of 11/14 before re-targeting the Ohio River counties. Its predictions have been the most consistent for this storm system.
The old GFS model was, frankly, all over the place even targeting far eastern KY at one point. May as well be pulling predictions out of your hat if you’re more than a day or two out.
The high-res GFS generally fared better targeting central KY until yesterday evening when it moved everything 50-70 miles north and west towards the river in general agreement with the Euro model.
Northwest shift strikes again? I had hoped that the high-res GFS, being a new model, would strive to take this into account since it seems so common.
Was expecting an inch or two total starting late tonight and ending early tomorrow for non Ohio river areas. Expectation being a snow day for a lot of folks, but the timing may result in a huge dilemma for many school systems. The freeze change could be during school start time frame and after they would need to make a decision.
Hope this isn’t the trend of something that normally happens around us this time of year always to the north and northwest and we have the nice cold cold rain
Marc Weinberg sure likes to pat himself on the back.
He’s been talking on Twitter the past two days about putting out the correct forecast and saying totals wouldn’t be high across Kentucky.
He is a NAM lover all the way. Of course, he could be right.
But, he has a bad habit of trying to make other stations and MET’s look bad.
Here is his tweet- All of the morning data continues to shift to the warmer NAM solution which we called from day one!
Eh, when you’re right, you’re right. Whether one gloats about it is largely a matter of character but since the business side of his profession competes for viewers/listeners/followers it’s not surprising to see it. Fund managers, stock analysts, sports analysts, political analysts…all partake in self-congratulations when a forecast proves accurate.
NWS in Louisville just expanded their WWA to include south central ky!
Yeah, I noticed things like that about Weinberg long ago. The other night he said that they weren’t in the business of being first (forecasting totals), just in being the most accurate.
ooh boy….
I only come here to read the comments (eating popcorn) I enjoy reading comments from snow lovers that miss out or only receive rain 🙂 Melt down comments are fun. BTW No pun intended with the word “melt” Have a great week and lets not forget its only November ha
Well regardless if we get rain or snow or something else I do think it is going to be a dangerous mess since the temps will be falling so low.I may only get rain but even so I still wont be able to get off the hill until the temps warm back up if there is a coating of ice on it.
The roads are probably going to get very slick everywhere.Everything will have to freeze with the temps that is on the way.
Chris it sounds like you may think we will have another cool spell during Thanksgiving week.I do hope its cool but nothing extreme with people traveling.