Good Friday everyone and welcome to a little something called the weekend! Things just don’t see right to be going into the weekend without a winter storm moving in to start it out. Every single big event until this week had come on a Friday night into Saturday. We are breaking that trend this weekend as we may end it with a winter storm instead. We are in Winter Storm Threat mode for the entire area for Sunday and Monday.

I will be able to hone in on a more specific region for the highest threat later today as nailing the exact track of these arctic lows is tough to do… even from just a few days out. I am confident that a large chunk of the state will get a significant snowfall out of this! More on all that in a moment.

I want to start things out with the cold temps that are with us to start the day. Skies cleared overnight across parts of the region and with snow on the ground… temps tanked. I can see a few areas getting close to 0 if they do indeed stay clear. With some clouds around… the temp range will be quite large. You can see all that here…

Current Temps

Morning Lows


Clouds will be on the increase as the day goes by with afternoon highs running from the mid and upper 20s in the north and east to 30s out west. Today’s weather will be impacted by a weak impulse diving southeastward at us. This will likely spread a few flurries toward some areas by later this evening. One thing to watch for today is a snowstorm along the Gulf coast. Winter Storm Warnings are out all the way to the beaches for the possibility of several inches of snow. This same storm will likely bring some big snows through northern Florida and toward Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach! This is truly a historic winter for much of the country.

Believe it or not… the low across the gulf was closer than a lot of people think to becoming a major winter storm around here. That impulse diving into the area later tonight was doing everything it could to phase with the energy down in the gulf and pull that storm north. As is… it is about 12 hours too late but will bring the snows pretty darn close to our southeastern counties later today into early Saturday. You can see all that here…



The weak system that does move in here tonight and early Saturday will have a band of flurries and light snow with it. This can lay down a coating at most as of right now. Saturday’s temps will come down as cold air advects into the area. Highs in the low and mid 20s in the north and east look good.

The arctic wave/low that will bring out winter storm threat for Sunday into Monday will track through the plains Saturday then make a turn toward the due east. Exactly where this decides to round the corner will be the deciding factor on who gets the heaviest snows. These things love to focus most of the snows right along and just to the north of their path. Odds favor this low scooting due east right along the Ky/Tn border.

The GFS took it just a smidge farther south with it’s last run thus taking the heaviest snows across the southern two thirds of the state…



I will say the exact thing I said a few posts ago and that is for you to NOT get too focused on EXACTLY what the snow totals look like over your house from run to run. The fact that the model continues to show a swath of very heavy snowfall setting up around here is what we need to focus on until we can hone in on where that is likely to play out.

Having said that… the Canadian Model lends some support to this particular run of the GFS…



As the low scoots by to our east late Monday… snow showers and snow squalls should become quite common for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I will have updates as needed later today and through the weekend so make sure you check back. Until next time… take care.