Good Friday everyone and welcome to a little something called the weekend! Things just don’t see right to be going into the weekend without a winter storm moving in to start it out. Every single big event until this week had come on a Friday night into Saturday. We are breaking that trend this weekend as we may end it with a winter storm instead.
We are in Winter Storm Threat mode for the entire area for Sunday and Monday.
I will be able to hone in on a more specific region for the highest threat later today as nailing the exact track of these arctic lows is tough to do… even from just a few days out. I am confident that a large chunk of the state will get a significant snowfall out of this!
More on all that in a moment.
I want to start things out with the cold temps that are with us to start the day. Skies cleared overnight across parts of the region and with snow on the ground… temps tanked. I can see a few areas getting close to 0 if they do indeed stay clear. With some clouds around… the temp range will be quite large. You can see all that here…
Current Temps
Morning Lows
Clouds will be on the increase as the day goes by with afternoon highs running from the mid and upper 20s in the north and east to 30s out west. Today’s weather will be impacted by a weak impulse diving southeastward at us. This will likely spread a few flurries toward some areas by later this evening. One thing to watch for today is a snowstorm along the Gulf coast. Winter Storm Warnings are out all the way to the beaches for the possibility of several inches of snow. This same storm will likely bring some big snows through northern Florida and toward Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach! This is truly a historic winter for much of the country.
Believe it or not… the low across the gulf was closer than a lot of people think to becoming a major winter storm around here. That impulse diving into the area later tonight was doing everything it could to phase with the energy down in the gulf and pull that storm north. As is… it is about 12 hours too late but will bring the snows pretty darn close to our southeastern counties later today into early Saturday. You can see all that here…
The weak system that does move in here tonight and early Saturday will have a band of flurries and light snow with it. This can lay down a coating at most as of right now. Saturday’s temps will come down as cold air advects into the area. Highs in the low and mid 20s in the north and east look good.
The arctic wave/low that will bring out winter storm threat for Sunday into Monday will track through the plains Saturday then make a turn toward the due east. Exactly where this decides to round the corner will be the deciding factor on who gets the heaviest snows. These things love to focus most of the snows right along and just to the north of their path. Odds favor this low scooting due east right along the Ky/Tn border.
The GFS took it just a smidge farther south with it’s last run thus taking the heaviest snows across the southern two thirds of the state…
I will say the exact thing I said a few posts ago and that is for you to NOT get too focused on EXACTLY what the snow totals look like over your house from run to run. The fact that the model continues to show a swath of very heavy snowfall setting up around here is what we need to focus on until we can hone in on where that is likely to play out.
Having said that… the Canadian Model lends some support to this particular run of the GFS…
As the low scoots by to our east late Monday… snow showers and snow squalls should become quite common for Tuesday and Wednesday.
I will have updates as needed later today and through the weekend so make sure you check back. Until next time… take care.
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this will trend north, clippers always are a hit for ohio valley region
YAY! I am in Harlan Co. in SE KY and as of this model run, I am in for a thumper. But, this will change, always does. For the good or bad, who knows. Hopefully this trend will continue, but like tommy said, these do tend to favor northern ky, but this one is different. much more intensive and moist thatn your traditional alberta clipper.
This link to the 00z GFS show a solid swath across the lower half of the state with even higher amounts in the southeast. It uses the 10:1 ratio, but with such cold temps in line, they could be higher. nearly 10 inches for SE KY!!!!!!!!!
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=41&field=acctype
Tommy
NO they don’t…….I have seen them give Bowling green and southern KY five inches…..I have seen them give central/northern ky 5 inches…..It’s not a given it will go through northern KY. It might, who knows, but they don’t always.
well all i know is I feeeeeel like crap this morning, but just give me a little bit and ill be ready to gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo..
be quite ๐
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! starting to come around…
er u at TIM and ANDY!!! u know better to leave the house without checking in…
and we got a 5 -8 inch snow coming troo,
Well, I hope it stays on this track. NO offense, Tommy, but “the lower two thirds” COULD give southern and TAFKABubba a decent snow. so, we can hope. Especially since you just got a pretty good one! Still, the IDEAL track would get us all. Only time, (and Chris) will tell! ๐
scroll up
now this is interesting from JKL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
INTO MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES THEN HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORM
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE LOW. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT IT COULD
PRODUCE. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CERTAINLY A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR THE
SNOW…HOWEVER THIS COULD BE MUCH LESS IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
NORTH.
This matches up with the 6z GFS pretty good.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Good morning everyone. Display in the Jeep showed 4ยฐF as I crossed the KY River this morning. Brrr! I forgot to plug up the ol’ diesel last night too, so she didn’t like it when I tried to fire her up this morning. Wrap up if you are going out.
is that the latest run bernie?
Yes, for that one, its not the one that Chris refers to that much tho. here is the one that he refers to.
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Here is the newest EURO
http://freaksters.com/weather/ecmwf_500p_4d.gif
Hey that only gives me a dusting. Move north!!!
I wish they would blonde proof these things for me. like add some icons, maybe a pic of a snowflake or a snowman on the freezing line or maybe a measuring stick with numbers, lol all these colors have got my brain smoking.
look at this:
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=06&fhour=90¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
that is bringing a good amount of snow to north central ky
Nobody will really know where this is going until it hits W KY. We all know that it is a dice roll when systems hit the state. Funny thing is how they favor south or north but nevah’ evah’ central KY ๐ Dice must be loaed ๐
As of this morning, Dallas has received more snow for the season than Lexington, after getting more than a FOOT of snow yesterday. Everyone seems to get in on the big-time stuff but us, it still continues to amaze me!
Okay I’m with Jen on this, and I’m in Southern Indiana, does anyone know what the maps say for us???
Be careful, the naysayers are watching. Their ancestors used to burn witches, so you never know…. ๐
moving slow here as well rolo, our 2 yr. old twins are sick, and its been a LONG night for me and the momma…
Bubbacast predicts track of sytem and its likely 5″ max of snow:
North KY = 70%
South KY = 30%
Central KY = Seriously? ๐
For what its worth, the HPC takes the low right along the KY/TN border. If that is the track, than areas within 100 miles of that track would have the greatest potential for the heavier snow.
I’m just below you in Louisville. I am wondering how certain the southern shift is? The GFS seems to allow only a pixie dust / close to nothing accumulation for us. I wonder why the southern shift and if there is a chance for a northern shift ( with all due respect to my central ‘snow dome’ Kentucky friends.
Does any have a link to other models? THANKS!
For what it is worth, the NWS is saying, ” IN CONTRAST…THE MOST RECENT NAM IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW…BRINGING IT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.”
So we have the GFS going south and the NAM going north…I hope the weather dudes and dudettes who frequent this blog can help sort this out…
Not trying to rain on southern Kentucky’s parade, but it looks like the last run of the GFS is further north than the 00Z. The 12Z NAM looks a further north as well.
Bill I’m in Corydon, IN it seems as if I’m going to get the brunt of this thing according to you, please let me know what you think, John B with Wave 3 had mentioned yesterday maybe 8 inches but with the models changing as they do who knows.
I love Corydon! Squire Boone Caverns near there! AS you can read below, the latest GFS is trending NORTH again towards you. We will see if this is a trend or a blip as the day progresses…
this is the 72hr. run of the 12z NAM and it has all the deepest moisture to out south, and actually drys to draw gulf moisture into it, giving Miss.,AL. more accumulating snows…
Thank you so much Bill, I will make sure to check back in a bit, and yes I’m about 15 miles from the Brandenburg bridge, my neice and nephew both work at Squire Boone during the on season..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_072m.gif
The KY snowtrain is about to leave the station.. ALL ABOARD! ๐
Before pass..
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif
After pass..
A heart for Valentines Day! ๐
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif
So does that mean more or less for Lexington?
Look a heart for Valentines! ๐
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif
Cute!
It looks to me like the 12zNAM is trying to tap into some gulf moisture. I don’t think the 12z GFS is out yet.
Thats what I see as well.. 12z NAM looks like back to back clippers running over us like a bowling bowl.. 12z GFS don’t start til around 10:30.
Not sure if this is the 12z NAM, but looks like its coming right at Lexington.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
12Z NAM shows the surface freezing line right along I 64 on Sunday…just as it showed it yesterday. This still looks like a rain in southern KY to me.
My sentiments exactly……DITTO!
Well, as i said earlier, only time, and Chris, will tell. We are still due a good one, AFKABubba, but, when will we see it? That has GOT to be the 65 dollar question….the models are jumping around so much, at this point, no one really knows…just like “The Shadow”…..hmmm, maybe we need to rename Chris….. ๐
You pointed out Albany, NY with 22 inches for the season…St. Louis only has 10…so, at least we aren’t the only ones missing out.
And, if the clipper brings us anything, than our total will go right above Dallas’ again. Personally, I am more amazed at St. Louis having less snow than Dallas…
most models keep sky over32 the latest nam has 32 line right near lex…
Flights that are routed through ATL are being cancelled. Travel alerts show ATL flights as on time. Must be cancelling in advance.
I think Chris just fell out of his chair looking at the 12z GFS! lol ๐
is the system coming in sunday or sunday evening?
ALSO.. I expect WSW for MANY counties in KY! Just my 2 cents.. WXman? Shane?
So you think the NAM is more reliable for this system?
So what’s the latest word on this system? Lots of snow for Central Ky…little or no snow for Central Ky?? Needing an update please!
I think you may want to look again, the freezing line is not close. There is a
(-10c) line that runs through there.
i’ve seen lex be the sweet spot so many times that i now am very confident nky gets a big snow, esp with the surface track that run showed.
Remember it is going to snow in Northern Florida this weekend.
They sure are. MIL flight out of Vegas to ATL was canxed this morning.
At the moment southern Kentucky is the sweet spot. But you do realize on the wxmaps overplay the total. There is a disclaimer on them that states a two inch overage. Any way check out the wrf and gfs and the Canadian models. The nam as well. They all agree that the clipper will be to the south but that can change in the next few days. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
I agree with Jenn,I need a blonde definition of all this!! LOL what’s going to go on in Knox and Bell????????
Putting emphasis on the SE bios of the GFS, I think this is a statewide event, but I don’t see the fine print of the models. But incase someone wanted to see the total run of the 12z GFS.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/ten_m_loop.shtml
Okay I see the surface temps you are viewing. The surface temperatures you are viewing are before Sunday night. Once the low gets to the east the arctic air dives in. Making temps plunge to the teens for most areas. Then the low strengthens bringing in wide spread heavy snow. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ068&warncounty=KYC203&firewxzone=KYZ068&local_place1=2+Miles+E+Brodhead+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
That is pretty cool!!!
The psu is the best site for weather models. There is a NCEP weather comparison on the penn state site. They really made the best one stop weather shop I have seen. Many awards and accolades have gone to them. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
That’s too cool Bernie!
CB must be real busy, since he usually baits us with a tweet ๐
Wow…now its time for this to happen!http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Thats what I’m talking about! Let’s just hope it pans 2 days before!! ๐
wkyt said storm could start as rain in southern ky
he did about 30 minutes ago, scroll to the top of the page you’ll see it on the right…
Yep, funny it had not updated when I checked earlier. Flash is crazy!
Chris how recent is this map???
Boyle County- Sunny
My thoughts on Sunday- Tuesday
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Dome buster if that panned out. The whole state would finally be purged of the dome.
Ahhh the pre 1998’s…. Memorieeees, like the corners of my mind….
We need a thrash metal version of The Way We Were ๐
Fresh 12z GFS about 30 minutes old.
12GFS says SMACKDOWN for most of Kentucky! Sweet Spot on that model run?? Looks like to me its the heart of the dome!!!
Not sure what happened here. This post should have been a response to Chris M’s.
Bubba.. I sure hope its the Dome buster! but I’m more like you now.. I want results before hand! ๐
But you got to admit.. the NAM trended north and now the GFS has. I think its looking really promising at this point and now Chris has got me excited! PLUS.. it would be the first time I’ve ever heard of a clipper having WAA, so that could be a sign of something major then a clipper panning..
I’m sure that most of you guys were tots in the winter of 1985, but if some of you more experienced weather folks can help me out…January 1985…lived in London, KY and we got pounded that winter…I believe it was the weekend of the 18th…wasn’t that an alberta clipper that came through. Lexington got hammered too, and just after that on into February we got so much snow. We even had thunder snow.
Actally, no. The NAM shows surface temps. rising all day Sunday…going above freezing early Monday morning actually.
NAM is generally always more reliable because it’s a higher resolution model and it’s intent is to do better at a few days out. But…GFS and NAM both NAILED our last two systems from 48-72 hours out.
I lived in London then too! Well, London England ๐ That area of England rarely gets snows beyond a few inches, but this winter they have had two big snows over 10″. Our family over there said things were shut down until it melted.
http://www.ready.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/grads/nam/panel6/plt23.gif
NAM still has the freezing line draped across KY as of 2:00 Monday morning. Eww.. going to be a tough forecast this weekend.
I was in Berea at that time in college, so had gone through 77 and 78 as well. I did not remember the specific year, but I was telling my husband last night about thundersnow (while I was Berea)and I remember even classes being called there. Lots of good sledding in that neck of the woods.
new post
Wont be tough at all to forcast. Most if not all of Central and Southern KY will be a cold rain Northern KY will get a wet snow. See very easy.
Bring on the snow!
Bring on the snow! Perryvillegirl who are you? I might know you and we could play in the snow together.
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