Good Thursday afternoon gang. I am updating the blog to move us into Winter Storm Threat mode for the Sunday through Monday period. We first targeted this time frame from several days back as one to watch and I am seeing enough to upgrade this potential to get the word out early since we are going into a weekend.
The arctic low pressure will be diving southeastward across the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday and will strengthen on it’s way to the coast. Overrunning snows will break out quickly from west to east across the state on Sunday with the heaviest snows coming Sunday night into Monday as our system wraps up. The models continue to come in a bit stronger with each run. Here is what the GFS is showing for snowfall through Monday night…
Do NOT take that map as the absolute truth!!!! I am only showing it to give you guys an idea of how this snowfall moves through… from west to east. Another thing that will come into play by Monday will be increasing snow ratios meaning we will maximize the amount of moisture needed to produce snow. Snow showers and squalls should continue well into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and this could add to the totals.
A couple of other weather notes..
– A few flurries or some very light snow will be possible Friday night and Saturday.
– There is a southern snowstorm that is just now cranking up and may spread snow from Texas to… gulp… northern Florida!
– It is possible that all 50 states record snow on the ground at the same time this week. The last time that happened? The late 1970s winters. 
– Looking farther down the road for the next storm threat? How about the end of next week into next weekend.
I will update as needed. Have a great Monday and take care.
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I am loving this winter!
Storm threat this early is good news.
here in covington we are in the top 10 snowiest february’s on record and we are only 1/3 through. 14 inches has fallen at my house this month lol i’d love another 10 or so from this storm sunday night!!!
tx LEGEND….
Do you mean Hawaii will get snow?
Bring it on……lovin’ it!!!!!
it is not uncommon in Hawaii in the moutians!!!!
he probaby means 49..
common weather prove that we can get more than 2 inches out of this one..give madison co. at least 4 please
I smell a dome buster coming our way. Hang in there central KY!
as long as nky gets snow too its ok 😀
i left the dome world!
Yep…I am almost positive the Hawaii Mountains have some snow at certain times of the year.
Looks like we will be laying Snow on top of Snow late this weekend!
4-8 inches out of a clipper like system…yep, this definately is not our typical Winter CB!
Does Hawaii have snow right now? I heard the same comment from WKYT about 47 states having snow, the exceptions, Florida, Louisiana, and Georgia…what about Hawaii?
ok shane need a update on blog by tomm on ur thoughtsa.
Thanks Chris! I hope it makes it toward the woodford direction! Don’t get me wrong I love the several inches we’ve had this winter, but my goal for snow has always been the “big one”! Still waiting……..?
it does snow in Hawaii.. so he meant 50 states.. Hawaii sees snow fall above 9000 feet, Hawaii even has a ski season, my brother and his wife have been…lol its on the Big Island in Hawaii
Actually, it does snow in Hawaii! The three tallest mountains often receive snow in the winter time and people can and do go snow skiing there.
Learn something new everyday..sorry I was wrong,,,now please snow, I want to be wrong about madison co. getting a small amount of snow out of this sunday-tuesday system..please
Mauna Kea (Hawaiian for ‘white mountain’) is a 13,796′ (4205 meter) volcanic mountain whose summit sometimes gets a skiable/boardable mantle of snow. There are no lifts, no grooming, no resort, but a road goes to the summit to serve the dozen or so world class observatories located at the summit. You must have a 4-wheel drive vehicle to get to the summit, which serves as your “lift.” Basically, skiers take turns being the driver, who picks up the other skiers at the bottom of the runs and ferries them up to the summit. Conditions at the top are extremely variable. Winter temperatures range from 25 to 40 degrees F (-4 to 4 C), but wind chill and the high altitude can make it seem much colder. Between April and November the weather is milder, with daytime temperatures varying from 30 to 60 degrees F (0 to 15 C).
Boyle County- 36* clouds and sun
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Critical issue for Central KY will be temps…warm spike coming, look at GFS..shows it where snowfall drops from 6 to 3 inches. Watch that wipe out our snow in Central KY
Boyle County- 36* clouds and sun
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Forgot to add, if the models trend north (like usual) than this will be another wasted opportunity for a “Bigger snow” in central KY…maybe 1-2 inches at best
Been there done that. Oh, FWIW, don’t head up the mountain from the beach with a hangover…….
I live less than a 1/2 mile from the Mercer/Anderson County line. The weather seems to always be much different here than in Danville.
My brother lives in Mobile,Ala.4-7 inches of snow possible! hehe
I agree. I travel thru Boyle and Mercer (north to south) every day and have often times seen a variety of conditions in these areas in the winter months
Good grief. when will this parade of snow makers subside?? any reason this winter has been so active?? El nino or la nina?? If you folks remember, our summer was way cooler and I remember complaining it was a bad pool summer. The cool trend is continuing. Our weather really is odd at times. too bad we don’t live closer to the ocean and get the copious amounts of moisture to accompany the cold air.
Don’t usually have to worry about weddings this time of year but guess what – I am coordinating a wedding on Sunday. It is small but the bride does hope she has some guests there. Maybe the “bad” stuff will hold off until Sunday night.
I just updated my blog *Click my name*, and I have to say this storm could be a nice one for much of KY. Even more impressive than the surface output of this storm is the upper level dynamics. I think this is why Chris is jumping on this one to threat mode already, this could be a very dynamic storm with a potential of phased Jet Streams, as shown by the Canadian GGEM model: http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs250mbWindsHeightsNA096.gif
If this happens the storm could rapidly intensify and drop some heavy snow squalls as it does so. This is one to keep an eye on for sure.
Looks like the Farmer’s Almanac is pretty good in it’s predictions. Guess I need to see when I need to plant those potatoes, green beans, and such.
I love the way the GFS drops the snow totals in central Kentucky right up to Louisville. The Louisville NWS will be all over the warm tongue rain/snow line again. Should be too cold for rain in Louisville though so those numbers are underdone. Based on his blog, Jay Cardosi seems very excited about this storm as well.
Well, I hope that we here in southern KY get some snow love out of this one, too. Seems like we have been on the edge for all but 1 all winter…let us AND you folks in Madison Co get it this time!
tx shane that is great, i agree that the heavier snow will be futher south IMO.
I sure hope we get a domebuster, so I can get rid of the “Artist formally known as”. I am not Prince and I certainly do not have his talent (the dude is an amazing guitar player- just for starts).
Again, CB has been deadly accurate with clippers, so if he raises it up a notch tomorrow, it may pan out:)
There’s always snow up on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa every winter…
More snow for TX, LA, and FL! Amazing stuff. And we keep seeing these southern storms move through the flow for the foreseeable future. Makes me wonder how the Spring severe weather season may shape up…
That includes parts of the panhadle of Florida! 😮
id say 3-6 inches right now for the area coffelady.
While I would still like to see a large snow here in the Lexington area my thoughts are increasing towards spring and summer.
I am just wondering how warm spring and summer may be and if it is looking like a summer of drought or not; severe weather. When we may start to see spring, etc.
Check out this picture:
http://static.squidoo.com/resize/squidoo_images/-1/draft_lens1728029module71659191photo_1259518877Hawaii-snow-mauna-kea.jpg
Me too!
Here’s another one:
http://gemini.physics.ox.ac.uk/photos/geminin-dome-snow-mr.gif
Thanks Chris for the update! You hardly get excited with it just coming into the NAM, so makes me wonder how much wheaties is that clipper gonna be eating??
And Shane… already says DOME buster!? thats some mighty “BIG WORDS!” this far out..lol Also great BLOG Shane!
I’m kinda like Bubba now, just hopefully he don’t have to stick with that name NOW, thats hard enough for him to type in every time and for me to get used to it!!!! lol
Well, if JAY is getting thrilled about it, it must be going to do something, huh, Robbie?? LOL!:)
Snow totals on the models always go way down around the ‘donut hole'(in my case in Bardstown, “the fence”..), and knowing our luck, that’s probably what will happen. I would just like to see a decent snowfall around HERE…I mean, everybody in the Ville keep whining they’ve NOT seen a “good” snow in YEARS…??! hahaha! I can count several that they have gotten, but drive about 30 miles south and if we’ve got 2″, that’s cause for excitement, but usually, we’re stuck to the ICE on the fence.:(
Hopefully, some of the upcoming storms will sufficiantly supply us ALL w/ what we NEED & WANT!!!:)
GFS
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Correction, that was the upper air from 12z GFS, not Canadian… Thing I was looking at on the Canadian was the Vort Max on this storm… looking strong.:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg
Looks like 2-4 inches for me. I’ll take that 🙂 just hope it doesn’t start until Sunday night…have to be in Richmond during the day on Sunday.
This is the recent discussion from the NWS for Louisville
NWS Louisville still looking at significant snowfall potential for Sunday into Monday morning. Here’s a portion of their discussion…. NOW AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GO…IT MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD…BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE QPF…IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AND OUR COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY GENERALLY NORTH A LINE FROM HARTFORD IN OHIO COUNTY TO NEAR BEREA IN MADISON COUNTY. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER STABLE WITH THE MODELS…THE QPF AMOUNTS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE. THUS…I AM RELUCTANT TO TRY AND PINPOINT SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…SHOULD SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR…WINTER STORM WATCHES AND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
Looks like a possible 2-4″ for me. I’ll take that 🙂 Just hope it holds off til Sunday night because I have to be in Richmond during the day on Sunday.
Big words I know… I think Lexington sees a good snowfall out of this… something in the 5″ plus range. Some people might not call that a Dome Buster… but that’s a pretty significant snowfall for Lexington. We’ll see how it plays out but this storm has models under playing it at the surface written all over it. The upper level charts on this thing look very strong, a favorable for something a bit stronger than a typical clipper to come rolling through.
Shane love your blog.What do you see for the Pike county Pikeville area???
work has the maps blocked, just wondering what Chris sees for Johnson/Floyd counties with the upcoming snow? Thank You.
This is in the Jackson discussion.
THE BEST SHOT OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH… FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE
POTENT UPPER LOW AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF H3
JET ALSO PASSES BY AIDING LIFT. THE 11/12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PRINT
OUT BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE-HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TUE… AND WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS LIKELY AS
THE AIRMASS COOLS… WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOT ALL
MODELS ARE ON BOARD AS THE 11/12Z GEM FOR ONE IS MUCH LIGHTER WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA AS IT KEEPS THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO
OUR EAST. HOWEVER… WITH INTEREST ALREADY SOMEWHAT HIGH FOR THIS
EVENT… WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HITTING THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON
I hope us folks here in Madison get something nice. 🙂
Now now Tommy don’t be greedy. 😛
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…
PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…PAINTSVILLE…
CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…
HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…
INEZ…PIKEVILLE
345 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
…ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK…
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY…AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS IS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THE SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY…AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS…ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER…COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY…AND THE SNOW MAY BECOME
HEAVIER AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS JUST TO OUR EAST.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM TO PROVIDE A DETAILED SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER…COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS OF EAST KENTUCKY ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO…LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
FOR MORE WEATHER AND FORECAST INFORMATION…PLEASE VISIT OUR
INTERNET WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.
$$
ABE
HOPE THIS HELPS…:)
Crystal I think this will likely be a storm that causes a Winter Storm Warning for Pike county, the criteria for which means at least 4″s in 12 hours or 6″s in 24 hours. So that should give you an idea of what could be heading your way for this one.
He has not put out a first call map yet.
thank you couchtater, it does.
Check out this snow coverage map. That is downright impressive.
http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Weather/Snow/Cover.aspx
NWS Louisville still looking at significant snowfall potential for Sunday into Monday morning. Here’s a portion of their discussion…. NOW AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GO…IT MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD…BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE QPF…IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE AREA AT MOST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AND OUR COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY GENERALLY NORTH A LINE FROM HARTFORD IN OHIO COUNTY TO NEAR BEREA IN MADISON COUNTY. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER STABLE WITH THE MODELS…THE QPF AMOUNTS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE. THUS…I AM RELUCTANT TO TRY AND PINPOINT SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…SHOULD SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR…WINTER STORM WATCHES AND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
I for one am really hoping that it snows enough to cancel EKU classes for at least two days! I would love to spend some more time with my son and catch up on some homework!
Wow all this weather has been really impressive. Hoping fro BIG Snows…. Maybe the government should now stop the investigation in to global warming. Because I believe we had our fair share of cooler weather now for the past year. Maybe they should study why it has been getting colder for the past year. Just my thoughts and bring in a Upper Michigan snow storm.
Global warming causes climate CHANGE!!! Just because it has been snowing or colder does not discount global warming.
I know this is not a place for debate but for the benefit of people who keep saying that the current weather disproves global warming……..by doing a little research and you will see that these comments are just silly- if you actually understand the science behind it.
This current storm in the gulf has the potential to bring Florida its largest snowfall EVER, if the forecasts are to be believed!
Here is the forecast for the NW corner of the FL panhandle just west of Century, FL:
Tonight: A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: Snow. High near 36. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
For those of you not well versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8″ of snow, in FL!
This current storm in the gulf has the potential to bring Florida its largest snowfall EVER, if the forecasts are to be believed!
Here is the forecast for the NW corner of the FL panhandle just west of Century, FL:
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 32. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: Snow. High near 36. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
For those of you not well-versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8 inches of snow, in FL!
This current storm in the gulf has the potential to bring Florida its largest snowfall EVER, if the forecasts are to be believed!
Here is the forecast for the NW corner of the FL panhandle just west of Century, FL:
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 32. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: Snow. High near 36. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
For those of you not well-versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8 inches of snow, in FL!
Here we go again…
This current storm in the gulf has the potential to bring Florida its largest snowfall EVER, if the forecasts are to be believed!
The forecast for the NW corner of the FL panhandle just west of Century, FL is calling for the possibility of 1-3 inches tonight and another 3-5 inches tomorrow.
For those of you not well-versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8 inches of snow, in FL!
This current storm in the gulf has the potential to bring Florida its largest snowfall EVER, if the forecasts are to be believed!
The forecast near Century, FL is calling for the possibility of 1-3 inches tonight and another 3-5 inches tomorrow.
For those of you not well-versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8 inches of snow, in FL!
Global warming doesn’t exist, end of discussion.
The forecast near Century, FL is calling for the possibility of 1-3 inches tonight and another 3-5 inches tomorrow.
For those of you not well-versed ion mathematics ;), that’s 4-8 inches of snow, in FL! If this verifies, it would be the biggest snowfall EVER in FL!
Not worth the fight. It’s GW if it’s hot and GW if it’s cold. They can’t lose. lol. Why fight about it?
The forecast near Century, FL is calling for up to 8 inches of snow thru tomorrow.
If this verifies, it would be the biggest snowfall EVER in FL!
uh…right…”science”…
I am being good now, so should you 😉
But now that you said the thing about research, is it the same stuff from the UN and East Anglia? It was GW when it did not snow and it is GW when it does snow- now THAT is brilliant in concept! 😉
Comical how the EXACT SAME groups and media that pushed global cooling in the 70’s are now pushing warming. Same agenda, opposite approach to it 😉
Posts like this make me want to buy a gas drinking Hummer and put my AC to 65 in the summer 😉
I watched the last UPPER LOW really good as it scooted to the east.. with this new setup, it looks like we will become Ohio from the last storm. No wonder I feel the excitement in the air! 😉
18z GFS so far..wow!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_084m.gif
Regarding the spring storms etc. I have a question about something I remember noticing, even my DAD commented on it when I moved here back in 1996…..
I remember in the spring/summer……Looking at the national radar from say 1990 to 1994ish (time frames) and every time KY was COVERED in active thunderstorms…..IT seemed like every time there was a system in the region, that storms on radar would explode over KY…..My dad remembered this too and asked me about the storms when I moved here…..Does anyone remember it being particularly stormy here in the spring/summer in the early/mid 90s?
SOMEBODY CALL THE EMERGENCY ROOM I AM GONNA HAVE A HEART ATTAKC!!! THE LATEST GFS PUTS ME IN .5 TO .75 LIQUID!!!!!!!!! WITH TEMPS IN THE 10S O BOY!!!!!!!!!! OLD SCHOOL BABY!!!!
I aint gonna never git no homework done in this pattern, CB it dont matter here in ft thomas we’ll take 12-20 inches anyday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cracks me up how a thing like GW divides rightwing kooks and leftwing kooks. But then some kooks on both sides believe it, some don’t. I thought Chris said none of this political crap on here, so knock it off.
I just love how it was global warming until the numbers started proving otherwise, and now its the all-encompassing “climate change”, so they can point at ANY event to push their agenda!
I just love how it was global warming ’til that didn’t pan out, and now its the all-encompassing climate change, so they can point at ANY event to push their agenda!
This is a question for WXman.
LOL! Good thing I only posted the operational GFS, just wait til the GFS snowtotals come out.. May want to breath.. its very important!! 😉
It was global warming until the numbers didn’t add up, now its the all-encompassing climate change, so they can point at ANY event as proof!
i have waited and waited for this kind of pattern and i am finally eperiencing it! 1/2 to 3/4 and 20 to 1 ratios would equate to quite a snowstorm!!!
Just something liberal lefts cooked up in the late twentieth century. Total hoax.
Shane do you think Morgan co in eastern ky will get much snow?
I was trying to be good here.. Bubba forced me!!!! lol I’ll make 1 point then I’ll shutup about it.. In 1834, they thought the world was becoming an “ICE AGE” so they tried to pass a BIG AGENDA for it, then it failed in 1956. then in 1974, they started the “GW” agenda, after 30+ years where is the “SCIENCE” to back it up? This has nothing to do with politics, just a WEATHER RELATED question!! It was hotter in the summer of 1908, (NOT MANY CARS, COAL POWER PLANTS) then it was in the summer of 2009… Get it???? (nowadays..millions of cars, thousands of coal power plants) Ok thats my 2 cents! lol
Besides, theres 3 things you can’t discuss with people.
1. Will Gilligan ever get saved off the island.
2. Will Charlie Brown ever kick the football.
3. and of course..GW
I just hear TG say that R word for Sunday….
I say scoot this south about 200-300 miles. 😉
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_84HR.gif
Me three!
Theres 3 things you can’t discuss with people.
1. Will Charlie Brown ever kick the football!
2. Will Gilligan ever get off the island!
3. and of course GW!
Bernie from the looks of that model we here in Eastern ky won’t see much snow at all.
Dude, chill out…It’s only snow we’re talking about here.
What is the “R” word?
Jake
Don’t take that snow map to heart, that only goes out til Monday 6am. Plenty of snow coming in behind it! 😉
Actually, your post makes no sense, since by your definition, everyone is a kook. Now THAT is kookoo 😉
Kookoo for cocoa puffs level.
Rain?
dude, snow is my religion please do not offend the snow gods, it is up to them where the dome occurs. seriosuly this could be big esp as it turns because it will have to slow down as it turns north eastward!!!
that has me in the 8-10”!!!
RAIN..
But every model I’ve looked at, freezing line is well below KY. But they may see something I don’t.
GFS and NAM is similiar to these models
JMA
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif
NEW EURO
http://wxcaster4.com/ecmwf/NORTH-AMERICA_ECMWF_1000-500_SLPTHK_72HR.gif
CANADIAN GEM
http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif
UKMET
http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif
BUFKIT puts out 5 in lexington using 10:1 ratios.
at the surface southern ky met get a shot of our friend WAA. the time of the temps just over 32 and the dry slot should be almost the same but there is a chance for a rain mix sun pm.
you forgot one: will the rabbit ever get the trix!!!!!!
Remember,
That’s a snow depth forecast, not new snowfall
So whats wrong with this picture when you have snow in MS,AL,GA,FL and your telling me rain on Sunday. No wonder I don’t try to read the maps.
You heard the boss Shane get to crackin 😉
If this keeps up, CB will have to bring that full page grinch picture back to the blog.
this is not surprising as southern KY always gets WAA
that snow just to out west sure does look like its headed our way….
Well, it looks like we in southern KY are going to get the shaft again….BIG SIGH. Guess we should be used to it, along with TAFKABubbaG..only this time, it looks like he might have a chance.
Although we have had one decent snow this winter, we still seem to get the puny ones for the most part….oh well, we will play wait and see to see what happens. but, at this point, doesn’t look like there is any need for us in the southern parts of the state to get excited….Artist, think I will remane myself as “TheEmptyMugFormerlyKnownAsCoffeelady…..;)
It’s funny how even if someone like mitch, even mentions rain everyone goes into this freak out mode. Come on people, the majority of the heavy precip will not be here until we are cold enough for snow all the way down through the atmosphere. And, if you would read mitch’s blog you would see that the latest euro is trending further south. So please calm down. 🙂
I am new to all of this, the reading of maps, nam, gfs, and other things, I have pretty much got that stuff down, but can I ask a question at the risk of sounding dumb, or stupid or something like that. Just what is WAA? any info would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
Warm Air Advection.
You should be jaded by now 😉 I just went on a run and all we have here is an inch or two in spots.
Tommy has become a snow-elitist! 😉
I think this will be more a north KY event, but hope that CB suggest otherwise.
ATM, best case is 8″ for north KY and 2″-4″ for central. Like I said, would be nice from now on if Chris is more specific and says “Winter Storm Threat…. for North KY”, since generalizing makes everyone think they are gettin’ the action. 😉
Well then, this could mean TG is referring to his viewing area and CB is being a little too general with the KY snow threat talk. Big state 😉
Thanks Shane!
Thank you Warren, I really appreciate it!
Actually, Chris say’s across the region. I don’t want to put words in his mouth but, if he thought it would just be for northern Kentucky. He would have outlined that area like he has in the past. Just my opinion Bubba. 😉
And a NICE one at that 😉
Just seems odd for TG and CB not to at least be in the same ballpark for an outlook that close in.
my daughter-in-laws mother is in wiley tx which is just out of dallas and they have 7 inches on the ground amazing. she lives here now and this winter is the first time she has seen snow..
It gets worse, since all of them but Florida have had several big snows in the past 12 years and now FL may get one. It will last about 30 minutes, but still.. 😉
Not seeing the Sunday event as a big snow maker for anyone but N KY. Fence seems to be setting up for the usual place. Warm air in, it moves out and… we know the drill too well already.
Let’s see what CB has to say before calling Groundhog day 😉
will the coyote ever get the roadrunner…
Well, as for TG I’m a strictly CB kinda guy only check out TG from time to time. So maybe I should expand on the weather blogs I read. lol 🙂
come on Bubba NKY meeds soem snow love!….man i am tired if shoveling snow;)
I remember it being particularly stormy(severe-wise)during the first couple of those yrs. We’d just moved into this house(which doesn’t have a basement…grrr!)and @ the time, my workplace was undergoing some ‘reconstruction’, so we got to take off if we wanted to. I know that in 91 & 92, especcially, I spent more time corraling my 2 Doberman’s into the car and driving 6 miles out to my aunt’s house(next door to where we used to live!)to her basement almost everytime a bad storm would develop in the daytime, as I was here alone and extremely afraid of tornadoes. I know that was the case in ’90, as the storms/squall lines seemed to always develop in the early/mid morning hrs and I’d climb out of bed, turn on the TV, see the radar, change out of the jammies, leash up the dogs and be out to my aunt’s ALL within 10 min’s..LOL! I also recall 93 being pretty active(a case of knowing “where I was” @ that time..lol)because the electricity@work would go out due to storms about twice a week there for several months.
Hope that helped you out a little?!:)
Wow, really? Because the models clearly indicate that this is going to be a close call for central KY. We could end up with a wet mix of rain/snow. AND…the Euro model is about as trustworthy as a flat tire.
Good point 🙂 Big snow looks pretty and is nice- IF you keep your power and IF you do not have a big driveway like me that goes up a hill 😉
So, your saying I can depend on the euro like I can depend on your winter forecast. And, please specify what models are indicating this rain/snow line being a close call for central Kentucky.
Does the next set of maps come out at 10:30 p.m.?
have any new models came out? are there any major changes? i’m in clay county and wondering what the trend looks like for us? hopefully not the “r” word!!! hoping for BIG snow, a couple inches will do though…
Man this snow on the ground got the temperatures freezing at my house. I had this old propane heater kickin strong for the past 7 hours and I swear its giving me a stomach ache and a headache to. Still hoping we get more snow tho cause aint nothing better than watching the kids across the holler throw snowballs at cars on the interstate.
I’ve nailed every single storm lately…to the point that I’ve had people thank me for saving them from the forecast from a certain station in town. Is that what you are talking about?
Let’s see… GFS clearly paints the freezing line along I 64 ALL DAY Sunday. The NAM clearly paints the freezing line along I 64 Sunday. Do I need to go on?
http://www.ready.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/grads/nam/panel6/plt27.gif
In fact, I 64 might even be in the rain Sunday. But don’t take my word for it. Listen to the kids who don’t even have their degree. 😉
Warm air advection is a term which means the horizontal and/or vertical movement of air from one place to another. Here in the Ohio Valley, southwest winds are typically associated with warm air advection as the winds bring up warmer air from the southwest.
I’ll have to say, you’ve been hitting our area pretty darn close this winter!
Back to school tomorrow ! Maybe another snowday on Monday !!
Again, case example of why (if true) it would be best for CB to be more specific, since “region” is Ohio Valley, so BIG area. We could have a regional storm and it mainly be in N KY and Indiana / Ohio.
That is why it would be nice for the threat area to be specified for KY rather than people assuming “region” equals KY. Current logical answer in N KY is the threat area and the rest of us are (as usual) the fence. TG would not say rain and CB would not say snow storm unless both are correct.
well, Mr. wxman you were so excited about making remarks on an armature’s thoughts you must have over looked part of my post. where I never said that it wouldn’t be a mix. I said that when the heavier precipitation began to fall it would be cold enough to support snow. I was referring to Sunday evening and, overnight through Monday. And I was talking about when you said that this winter would be warm and, wet. And i know your going to post some bogus stat. But, where I live it has been below normal the majority of the winter . And, you also said it wouldn’t be that snowy of a winter and look we have had more snow this winter than in the last three combined. And, those people you “saved” must have been the voice of reason. Let me close by saying that I am a friendly person wxman. And, I don’t want any trouble I’m and going to post my thoughts just as every one else regardless if “YOU” agree with them or not.
Though history suggests fence for central KY, I would not trust the GFS either way ATM. It was saying big snow just a few hours ago 😉
Well, I had a ginormous post but of course it got moderated. so maybe it will come show up or not. And, there is only one person on this blog that I listen to and that’s CB so you can say w/e it is that you want to me, someone who is an amateur but, im going to keep posting what I think regardless if you agree or not. 🙂
Wxman, don’t let him get you upset..it’s not professional to toot your own horn!! 🙂 Regulars on this blog know you and know your a great met. Who cares what this guys says.. Who is he?
I don’t let none of the models i look at sway me either way until see what the man says.
you just gotta love some of the egos around here lately. 😉
I am a long time lurker of this blog since the wkyt days. (i know this means nothing) I am not trying to cause trouble I was just posting what i thought. Like everyone else just so happens wxman picked me to pick on. And, I suppose no one recalls when wxman called for a warm and wet winter now do they. I’m just sayin. But once again i will say im not here for trouble just for the weather.
Well before I go to bed, all i gots to say is I’m lovin this snow FINALLY..I have at least 8 inches on the ground with drifts between 13 to 15 inches..and it looks like it may stick around a while, and I’m also what appears to be the 6-8 range right now for Sunday through Monday..so I’m doing the happy dance..(it ain’t pretty, but it’s fun) it’s just about time we had a good ole fashion snowy winter..and guys, play nice, hell it’s just weather discussions..nothing personal!
I doubted we would get the snow from the wrap arounds..and my biggest apologies to Chris and other folks on here who know what they are talking about far more than I do..but I thought for sure the dry cold air was gonna zap all the moisture..and it would be like it was the last time I drove my car down the mountain waiting for the big snow just to wake up, walk down , get the car and drive it back up! haha, so no more doubting for me..night y’all.
just relax folks both runs of the sref and nam are colder tonight.
I realize BM at LEX is not popular on this blog, but it should be mentioned that he was very bullish on this clipper for Sunday and Monday adn thinks it will be all snow.
No offense intended but I really don’t care what BM has to say otherwise I would read his blog which I will not. This is CB’s blog and I stick with him.
please be respectful to cb’s site..this is for weather blogging, not to be turned into trash like topix..why would anyone on here get their feelings hurt? there are no forcasts written in stone, even the pro’s miss now and again, so let’s be nice and polite, and enjoy the topic of weather without being rude…
I haven’t seen anything that gives us any RAIN, not saying it won’t happen, I’m just not seeing it in the operational models. This has the setup to be one of them surprises.. forecast 2-4 and end up getting 4-8+. The ground temps are all under freezing statewide..
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=18&fhr=99&field=ptype
I heard him on the radio this evening hinting towards accumulation. Normally he’s as conservative as they come so when he gets gippy I have to pay attention. For the record his arrogance drives me nuts.
Off the blog Congratulations to the Lady Cats. These women are the real thing and hopefully they will get the respect they deserve in the rankings. They killed Georgia.
CB will post and we will see if still in threat level. If emphasis is north, we know the drill.
for those of you worried about waa you might want to take a look at the 00z gfs the 32 line stays in tenn and the heaviest snows are over southern ky, great news for me and those of you in se ky though. I’d be more worried the snow goes south. again all based off of one run.
HERES A GOOD ONE TO SPARK DISCUSSION…. IMAGINE WHAT METEOROLOGY WAS LIKE THIRTY YEARS AGO BEFORE MODELS AND FORECAST GRAPHICS… ANY COMMENTS?
More accurate? 🙂
It goes both ways. While there are many who tout global warming there are just as many who cry foul every time its cold here and say its not true b/c its cold here…never understood that one. IMO, no one has had a good debate and I’m not saying that some of the global warming supporters are right, but if you want to disprove, then bringing it up every time its cold does nothing to disprove…that just makes us look bad. Take for example that real cold snap back in Jan., while it was cold here up in Canada they were seeing above avg. temps…weather goes on.
00z GFS did in fact bring the heavier snow south.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I don’t have a degree in meteorology..does that make me any less capable to predict the weather? No….does it make me right less often? Maybe…….(smile)
You know a degree is a piece of paper. It’s not the degree a forecaster has, but the fact that the forecaster has the knowledge. And I’m still learning, too..like everyone else.
Not being rude or mean, just voicing an opinion. All respect due given, WXMan.
Nope…CB wasn’t n the game yet!
After, the sunday monday storm, models are showing the possibilty of yet another snow for ky!!! For the late week of course and we are still yet a week away, but it is something cool to think about.
this has nky hit written all over it imo, these systems always trend bad for sky and lex area
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/00zgfstmaxint066.gif
Southern KY may have just a smidge of mix but it shouldn’t last too long… This storm is pumping in a nice bit of cold air behind it.
All of this snow has been affecting me economically. Lately I’ve been forced to drive my GAS GUZZLING 4-wheel drive truck to negotiate local roads.
Hope all of this comes to an end before I run out of money!
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