Good Thursday everyone. Our latest winter storm has pulled away from the region leaving behind a fresh layer or snow and some leftover snow showers and flurries today for some. As has been the case this winter… we don’t have a lot of time to rest as we focus on our next snow maker due in town late this weekend into early next week.
The latest winter storm dumped quite a bit of snow across parts of the state. Round 2 of the storm put down anywhere from a couple of inches to as high as 8 or 9 into parts of southeastern Kentucky. This adds to our snowy and cold winter that is in progress. The NWS in Jackson is currently in the middle of their 3rd snowiest winter on record and they have a shot at moving on up the list before all is said and done.
Speaking of the NWS… I want to give them a big shout out as I think they all did a wonderful job with this week’s winter storm. They had some great discussions and some great forecasts. Kudos!
Ok… let’s get into the meat of the forecast as we have more snow chances ahead of us.
As mentioned… some light snows will be winding down today in the east. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 20s central and east with 30s west.
A weak system will dive in from the northwest late Friday into Saturday and may bring some flurries or a batch of very light snow. Can this lay down a light accumulation? Temps will come back down a few degrees on Saturday.
The main threat for accumulating snows around here will come with an arctic wave/low pressure that will slide southeast out of the northern plains Saturday night into Sunday. This low should be fairly weak on Sunday as it moves into the western Tennessee Valley. A streak of snow will likely develop out ahead of it from west to east across the state. The energy diving into the area Sunday night into Monday is pretty impressive and should mean we get a low pressure to strengthen the farther east it gets. The European Model is showing this quite well by Monday Evening…
Here is how the progression of this system looks on the GFS…
Sunday Morning
Sunday Evening
Monday Morning
Monday Afternoon
The setup for this allows for this storm to deepen quite a bit more and I suspect we will see this on future model runs. What does all this mean for us? This should mean a decent swath of snow moves through here Sunday and Monday with the potential for several inches of the white stuff. This is something we will keep a very close eye on for a possible upgrade to Threat mode.
The pattern for the rest of the month will continue to feature many more snow chances and additional storm possibilities. The cold air may actually grow stronger in the coming weeks. The GFS Ensembles are showing some big negative departures over the next few weeks. Take a look at what they are showing in terms of the 850mb temp anomalies…
Those are very impressive and you can see how the core of the cold is basically right on top of us.
I will have more updates on the weekend snow chances later today so check back. Until then.. take care.
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Thank you for the update Chris.
Thanks for the Update Chris.
NWS in JKL is already making this exciting my forecast for knox co..
Sunday…Cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Sunday Night…Cloudy with snow showers likely. Cold. Moderate snow accumulations. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Presidents Day…Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent
…………
I always LOVE to see those words in my forecast…LIGHT and MODERATE accumulations…:)
Thanks CB, but looks like another ankle biter for bunch of us. When will us common folks get one of them there shin or knee kickers?
Heck, if just a few inches, more like an arch skimmer ๐
That southern storm is really gonna crank as well…Southern Miss. is forecasted to get 5-8″ of snow!!..that state will SHUT DOWN!!..they dont have snow removal equipment down there…
i thought you were ready for spring ๐
i knew somebody had spiked your coffee last night LOL
when and how much snow will be going through the Knoxville/pigeion Forge area this weekend and Presidents day. We have to head there for a convention. Worried about getting stuck there and not being able to get back to central ky.
Irony there and all around us ๐
Thanks, Chris! I’ll keep checking for updates on the Sunday-Monday clipper. Doesn’t sound like the typical quick system…so far, February is giving us all we can handle and I luv it ๐
Check out this forecast for Crestview, FL:
Winter Storm Watch
Friday: Snow. High near 36. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
I can’t say I have ever seen a WSW for Florida before! This really is a historic winter for pretty much the ENTIRE country EXCEPT under the dome! ๐
Thanks Chris for the update!
Can you imagine 79″ (over 6ft) of global warming? The closest record I could find was winter 1966. 63% of the USA is now snow covered. Talking about this winter being extreme. Is the ICE AGE coming?? ๐
Bubba.. I hope your right at this point, I have done seen enough of snow this year, I’m ready for thunderstorms, flip-flops, & BBQs. But I feel that Spring is going to take its time getting here.
Just want snowman snow, even if just six inches. The only snow enough for a snowman here was the five incher, but was “dry” snow. Not good for making snowmen, but GREAT for easy removal from walkways and driveways ๐
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
Funny thing is when it did not snow, it was GW’s fault and now with snow, it is GW’s fault. With the news from just this week about more fake data and investments by key people making conflict of interest, you would thing people in Washington would back away from it. Arrogance is a disease ๐
yep the old school winter hac arrived, noiw all we bneed uis about a 16 inch pr more snow fall and i think we get it my end of month in march.
Bus keeps passing us up ๐
Thanks for the update. Six to eight inches of snow here in many parts of SE Kentucky. I doubt whether we’ll have enough sunshine or warmer temps to melt much of it before the next snow comes, so we’ll likely have snow on top of snow.
Saw a funny thing on the news. Some kind of conference on global warming scheduled to be held in Washington, D.C. had to be canceled because of the blizzard they had there. Irony?
You said it, when its fake data, but that goes with fake people that wants the real $$$$$$$$$$$$$ to pay for their mansions, cars, vacations, jelly beans, and don’t forget their retirements.
The money would be well invested if they put that into the national debt OR start studying the chances of ALL the fault lines going off simultaneous (worldwide), wouldn’t that be WELL worth the cause?
It seems that every time ol’ Al decides to have one of his conferences, there is record cold and or snow. Maybe we should have a global warming conference in Lexington and invite Al Gore – that would ensure that we finally get a big one and destroy the dome! ๐
Hearing about all this snow on the ground has me depressed. A little more than a dusting in Monticello & no mention of “light” or “moderate” snow in our forecast for the weekend. Southern KY says…..maybe next year.
Interestingly, Albany, NY has had only a shade more snow this season than LEX at a hair over 22 inches, and as of yesterday, were reporting a snow depth of 0…
LOL! VERY!
LOL! LOL! too funny!!! It may just work!!
For a lot of folks, no doubt, but the bus keeps passing our stop by ๐
I would rather allocate funds to Rolo for billygoat research ๐
It’s funny that Pike County was in the warning area and at least in my part of Pike (Shelbiana) we barely got enough out of this last system to cover the ground. Maybe an inch on the ground total. Weird.
Maybe they have a dome too? Are they our sister “city”? ๐
I can say that a lot of areas in up sate NY are buried and have been just like every other year. We have a lot of businesses up there and the market managers let us know the impact to sales.
We also have stores in all over Tennessee and they have been big snow smacked twice already this season. Ironic.
Even thats a tad better then GW research! ๐
Well guys, I’ve had enough snow to last me for years to come. Please don’t be mad at me you snow lovers. ๐ Normally, I love snow too. But I can’t get off my hill to go to work. There have been wrecks around here. I’ll think of more later. ๐
But for all of you that want it, I hope you gets lots of it.
I’m north of Hazard, and we have plenty that I wish I could send to you guys that want it.
Al G says:
The dome has preyed on yooouur feeeaars!
Rolooooo, I keep trying to reply to your thread, but get moderated.
Please tell the old-school bus to stop here- it keeps missing us ๐
I cant wait to see what this storm has in store for us!
bubba g, the eaway thebrutal winter has hit the mid atlantic tells me we gouing to get a heavy wet old school storm before the first week or in march.
back in our old school days the mid atlatic always got hit do as wekk did, i think we see a cut off low to out east that churns mositure back into us and hammer us for a prolong time.
cause its OLD SCHOOL WINTER and we are going to get a bigg daddy.
im so sick of this “lets blame the government” and the vague statements about how people are getting rich off GW. its such a lame, vague, predictable argument. “all the fat cats in washington are getting rich off of hard working americans”.
I’ve been reading this blog since its been created and rarely post. people are entitled to their opinions, but all this “the government is backwards” crap wasn’t being posted during the last administration. if you truly are upset about government spending thats fine, but to remain quiet when the former president increased the size of government and increased government spending to an unprecedented level shows many people real intentions.
all im asking for is consistency and a lot less political talking points. this is a weather blog. if you want to discuss the data (or “fake” data”) if GW by all means do it. but the political crap needs to stop, chris has said it multiple times and there are a great number of us that roll our eyes everytime we see it, no matter which way you lean politically.
i come here to hear about KY weather…for the 1000th time, can we PLEASE keep it that way?
One more snow fall and then I want flowers!
I honestly think that the vast majority of it blew away… it poured all day yesterday at my house (near coal run village) and we have maybe 2 inches max.
I agree, I too come here for KY weather, NOT Mississippi, Illinois, Florida or Tim Buck Too weather. I don’t have time like some do to sit and read this blog all day long, so I jump on and skim through. Then I see where someone has copied and pasted a weather statement and I read it thinking it’s for our area but NOOOOOOO it’s for hundreds of miles away in Arkansas or somewhere. For Pete’s sake the blog title is KY WEATHER CENTER.
Observations:
1. “So Tired” Great Ozzy song from his Bark at the Moon album ๐
2. True about the politics, more science ๐
3. What we need is one good, knee knocking snow to shut us all up about the GW noise. If not through a change in conversation, perhaps by default due to power being out ๐
4. Got buds in VA that will be without power for a loooong time.
CB, i love those maps, if we could get that to slide by then turn east WOW!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p60_084l.gif
to me it looks like a clipper–unless it hooks up with a southern low, it will be a “clipper-snow” if lucky we can get another 2 inches!..of course I’m talking for cky, maybe more in seky
Then um….don’t read the comments, just read the posts.
Bring on the Bid Daddy rolo…! We is ready…>!!!!!Gimme a good foot to foot n a half and i will be satisfied…..
Ain’t it, tho?
GFS
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
NAM
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
Well we didn’t get much snow from the last one here, probably about 2.5 or so. But we definitely got the wind and the blowing snow! It doesn’t look like we are going to see much snow love out of the next one either, ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBubba….:( but we can hope, I guess…
Will sait to see what Chris says a little later. I do know that our road is like a skating rink by our house. There were cars skating around on it all night last night! ๐
tell that bus to stop here, too. We need a good dose, too. ArtistFormerlyKwnAs Bubba, I want us to both get it!
Last two have gone to moderation….lets see if this one goes through…
Thanks Chris for all your updates. This is the coolest website. My kids and I are getting ready to go out and play in our 5 inches of snow. We just need another wet snow for building a snowman, but without losing the electricity. The last wet snow we were 3 days without power. It was a long three days. Snow is more fun with the power on. I can’t wait to see what the next storm brings. Keep us updated and bring us more snow in southeaster KY.
Just talked to my cousin in Dallas/FT Worth area…Has 3.5 inches on the ground and forcast to snow all day into the night…Most he ever remembers getting is about 1 to 2 inches at the most…
I have between 5-6 inches of powdery snow. It blew around alot so I have places where there isn’t very much and I have places where I have plenty.
12Z NAM sure doesn’t look very impressive for Sunday. Maybe one of those coating snows.
Chris, I think you do a great job at doing your job. ๐ However, the GFS models confuse me no end. Could you explain them on your page? Thanks and God bless.
why is there such an extremem difference in accumulation between the two? Is it because the NAM is showing monday’s accum. and the GFS is showing the tues. accumulation? Please explain…just a weather novice here.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_114s.gif
12Z GFS has a spot with several inches of snow just to the northeast of LEX metro. ๐
The latest run of the GFS is smoking crack, that is bad even for the GFS
Your right.. GFS goes out 120 hours and the NAM only goes out 84 hours. It’s just now coming into the NAM range.
Yes Bernie why the extreme??
That”spot” will be a moving spot for the next three days, it will be over morehead, g-town, probably go down to somerset, up to florence, and then when its game time, it will completely disappear…common guys, this sunday-through tuesday will give us maybe 2 inches so lets not hype it up…let the weather prove me wrong (to be honest I hope the weather can prove me wrong–please)
It will move around allright but I will promise you it won’t be centered anywhere over a 50 mile radius of Lexington.
Yeah….even if it’s the short bus!! ๐ We need some snow love!!
I have to agree with you. We are in KY and I though the blog was to discuss KY weather. I don’t mind and completely understand, for instance, people posting totals of snow or something in a different state, but not complete forecasts and weather statements for someplace other than KY.
Whats the chances of Washington DC getting another major snowstorm? ๐
latest gfs puts me in 6-8 inches!!!! holy cow!!! could i get 20-22 inches of snow in a period of 10 days?!!?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_102l.gif
this thing has eaten its veggies look at the up to .75 qfp working east south east! with temps so cold here sunday night it wont take much qfp to get some sweet totals!!!
Eastern Boyle County- Sun breaking thru 36*
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Todd on wkyt said he did’nt expect much out of the sunday monday clipper.
Pretty good actually. We were well advertising that this would be a Winter of southern branch systems…and it has turned out that way. One after another has moved through the south and then bombed the east coast. The overall pattern should continue like this for the foreseeable future. Wow..it’s really something. And remember, most of Kentucky’s BIG snows come at the end of Winter when we start getting wild swings in the jet again.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_102l.gif
thats some nice totals with 15 and 20 to one ratios, mets up here on the forum saying 25 to 1 ratios early monday morning!!!!
ok maybe for lex but i have seen super clippers drop 8 inches, about 1 or 2 of these super clippers near the region every year, last year i got 4” in lexington from one, it only snowed for about 3 hours but dang it snow, parts of nky got 8 inches!
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=7
this puts areas along and north of the track in for some significant accumulations.
And the surprise in this is….? ๐
two links to two different clippers that nailed th nky area:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/winterstorm020309.html
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/020607.jpg
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