Good Monday everyone and welcome to a week of arctic weather. Well below normal temps and several rounds of light snow and snow squalls will be with us all week long. Every area of the state will have snow on the ground before the week is over… some will see more than others. 
Let us get started with the weather out there today. A northwesterly wind flow is becoming better situated to bring greater coverage on the snow showers and snow squalls today through Wednesday. These will be the big, fluffy flakes that blow around and can leave a quick coating to an inch as they come through. You can track the flakes here…
Highs today will hit the low 20s again… but it will never feel close to that with our northwesterly winds blowing. Speaking of those same northwesterly winds… they will continue to crank up and the flow will come down the length of lake Michigan and pick up a ton of moisture and deposit it downstream in the form of snow showers and squalls. I made a map showing the setup over the next few days…
Flakes will fly all the way back into western Kentucky… but the greatest risk for putting a couple of inches of snow on the ground will be across the north and east. The main axis for heavy snow will set up just to our north into parts of Ohio and then up against the higher elevations of West Virginia. It is in that axis that a lot of snow will fall through Wednesday.
Again… it will not snow the entire time and will come in bursts instead. Given the nature of snow showers… it is likely we will have some travel impacts from snow covered roads and reduced visibility at times. I would imagine we will see our fair share of school delays and cancellations during this time. 
That brings us to our Thursday system that will produce widespread snows for the region. This will not be a powerful system and will, instead, be an arctic wave of low pressure rolling across the area. It won’t have a lot of moisture… but it won’t need a whole lot as snow ratios for this will be around 20-1. That means that every tenth of an inch of liquid would fluff up to about two inches of snow. The past few days.. the models have been spitting out anywhere from .10″ to .40″(depending on the run) of liquid precipitation from Thursday into Friday. You can do the math on all that. Either way… it is anywhere from a couple to several inches that would be possible.
I will tackle the end of the week snows with future updates. Those snows will usher in even colder air from Friday through Sunday with daytime highs in the teens and nighttime lows in the single digits. We have a shot at 0 or below if skies can clear over a snowpack.
Ok.. thats all I have for you right now. Help us out by telling us how the weather is where you live as I have a feeling the snow showers will cause some issues. Have a great Monday and take care.
Select Page
Thanks Chris!
So let me get this straight……..When they receive these blizzards with DEEP snows in SD or ND or even NE, KS etc, the actual liquid equivalent may only be .50 or so or maybe even less? I always wondered how all that moisture got up there since the western parts of those states have a very arid climate.
light lazy snow and bout 20 degrees this morning so we are already technically in the low 20s
School cancelled in Clay Co. due to overnight snowfall. I looked out and it doesn’t seem to be much, but everyone here knows it can hit one part of the county and not the next…so I’ll assume that’s it.
18 degrees in Louisville with snow showers
my road is covered i will be surprised if they don’t go ahead and completely close Knox
18 degrees here in Johnson(East Point, near Floyd County) and a light snow is falling. The roads and yards are covered.
Lots of school cancellations, extremely cold. Everyone stay safe and warm.
So, what everyone is saying is everyday we have a shot at flurries or snow showers but nothing major since thursday’s system doesn’t have any moisture. 🙁
This snow doesn’t even show on radar, but it is coming down pretty well. 2-4 inches Thursday is a major storm for Lexington considering what we have seen in this area over the past few years.
I woke this morn to 23* and 1 1/2 of snow on the ground. Everything is covered and beautiful. I was surprised, but pleasantly. And it’s still snowing, nice, SE Rowan county Craney/Paragon
Woke up to about an inch of snow in Berea, light flurries is falling at the moment with a temp of 19° The back roads off of 25 are solid white.
Long live the dome. Looks like the 7 day out storm is not going to live up to its potential once again. Another missed school day (that has to be made up) to look out at a dusting of snow.
Well, it won’t be a blizzard I don’t think…but we will have snow. If I calculated correctly from CB’s post, it could be from 2 to 8 inches, and that’s just at this time.
The models usually don’t get a good grip on anything until it’s closer to the event.
It is 17.5 degrees here with 3/4 of an inch of light super fluffy snow and a “strong” wind of about 9 mph out of the NorthWest. As the sun rises here in Jeffersonville, one can look around and pretend it is a winter wonderland, I hope everyone remains safe and warm.
I think Madison is one of the schools that hardly ever closes.
looks like northern kentucky is the favored area for this wed-thu event in terms of significant snow. Wilmington saying several inches looking more possible over their FA this puts central and southern ky into the ever loved “1-3” inch range.
yep, just what i said yesterday, northern ky,ohio gets a big snow and central and southern ky. gets frontal snowshowers…its a frontal wave, so pretty much like a clipper system the heaviest of precip. falls on the northern side of the low..
snow flying in knox co.
maybe 1/2″ or so is spots
18* in downtown B-ville.
and yet another day off from school for the kiddo’s…
sorry Forgot to put my name in…lol. havent had the coffee yet…
That is so true.
Sober up Tim there is more snow out there today than what was out Saturday for our area neither are worth mentioning though.
I just hope we dun have this to look forward to the rest of winter
Hello to the both of you. We are getting lots of snow on the ridge here in Rogers. Did not expect this today.
What’s your thoughts on Thursday?
Good for them! I’m glad there is still some respect for education.
Not understanding something here…how does keeping kids safe constitute no respect for education?
Cant escape the cold by going to Florida!!.
Key west..55*
Miami…..45*
Daytona beach..31*
Melbourne..34*
Orlando Intl…34*
Ormond Beach…28*
The Villages…30*
Jacksonville..27*
Tallahassee..24*…and this is their forecast for Thursday Night…Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and a slight chance of flurries. Lows around 29. Chance of precipitation 30 percent
anyone up for a WARM trip to the Bahama’s or Hawaii..???…:)all this COLD WEATHER is rough on my achy bones!!!…No wonder all those sno-birds invade Florida in the winter-time..to bad they are suffering as well this morning..brrrrrrr
Lmk says low will move over ky putting heavy snow axis over northern ky and points north. Jkl says it’s going further south.
OH LAWD!!!!…PLEASE!! LETS NOT START THIS ((( OLD ))) ARGUEMENT AGAIN!!!…:(:(
ITS AS BAD AS THE POLITICAL ARGUEMENTS!
LOL!
I do not know if CB caught it, but look at the snow map-
1. The heavier snow wraps around the north and east of KY like we are a barrier.
2. The heavier snow is shaped like a boot that is kicking Kentucky (while we are down).
YOU-CAN-NOT-MAKE-THIS-STUFF-UP! :):(:)
Yes- But not central KY. Classic!
I will be in Illinois and Indiana Wednesday and Thursday. Fun travel!
For what its worth–
Deepest snowdepth of the young winter season here in northern mercer county. 2 blades of grass covered
yeah, I caugth that as well…I don’t know how they (JKL) are coming up with that..but oh well….I figure southern ky gets a couple of inches, while nrothern ky. ohio and west Va. gets the good snow plowing snow, or should I say, snow-BLOWING snow…lol…
Ironic. I will be dead center of the snow band, since I will be at the boarder of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy snow Nazi to central KY- No heavy snow for you! 😉
Wait, I have to travel in it…..
SREF ensembles takes it right over Lexington into Grundy, VA.
I was expecting you to comment when the rollercoaster was heading DOWN the track! COME’ON Bubba, for a couple of days you was ONE OF US! 😉
this is worse maybe some of these know it all folks should try driving school buses in snow
I agree with RhondaB. I still think with .30 with snow ratios its going to be a winter wonderland for most of the state. general 2-4″ isn’t a bad snow..
I rather have a bunch of 2-4″ events WITH power, then a monster storm WITHOUT power.
But with all the models pointing of a GULF storm, just makes ya think how many times those models can’t predict the weather. The models and ensembles from Saturday looked AWESOME, you couldn’t ask for a more PERFECT OLD SCHOOL storm, then the models completely erase it like a whiteboard is unbelievable!
I guess thats why you have some great meteorologists, like Chris that don’t live or die by the models. He’s like one of us, who gets excited when the models show potential and thats alot of passion for the weather like alot of us have on here, especially for snow. Our turn will come, its just a matter of WHEN, but when it does, we gonna hear ALOT of complaints about having NO POWER! lol
Let’s enjoy the rollercoaster ride, plenty of harsh winter to go.
Next potential looks to be around the 16th. (yep another “NEXT WEEK” storm and may even bring RAIN!)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif
I agree with RhondaB. I still think with .30 with snow ratios its going to be a winter wonderland for most of the state. general 2-4″ isn’t a bad snow..
I rather have a bunch of 2-4″ events WITH power, then a monster storm WITHOUT power.
But with all the models pointing of a GULF storm, just makes ya think how many times those models can’t predict the weather. The models and ensembles from Saturday looked AWESOME, you couldn’t ask for a more PERFECT OLD SCHOOL storm, then the models completely erase it like a whiteboard is unbelievable!
I guess thats why you have some great meteorologists, like Chris that don’t live or die by the models. He’s like one of us, who gets excited when the models show potential and thats alot of passion for the weather like alot of us have on here, especially for snow. Our turn will come, its just a matter of WHEN, but when it does, we gonna hear ALOT of complaints about having NO POWER! lol
Let’s enjoy the rollercoaster ride, plenty of harsh winter to go.
Next potential looks to be around the 16th. (yep another “NEXT WEEK” storm and may even bring RAIN!)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif
hasn’t shown up on radar but we’ve had a nice little fluffy snow in Pulaski Co. Light snow showers with about 1/4″ so far
Well, even though it is not showing on radar, we are having a pretty decent snow shower, with temp of 18, and wind chill of 10. Everything is white, and although it is a dry snow, it is beautiful.
As for the Thursday system, I am not sure that anyone is sure about what it might do at this point. Although the models are showing one thing right now, we all know that they are fickle. Chris’ map on this post is for what we are seeing right now, I think. (of course, I could be wrong…it IS Monday, water is froze at work, one of our heat pumps is dead, so I’m cold, and probably have a brain freeze!) IN any event, I will wait for Chris’ thoughts on who gets what, and when. (It’s called keeping the faith! 😉 ) NO, I am NOT excited yet, but still hopeful.
That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it!
Have a safe WARM day, everyone!
Brother Bern,
Just commenting on the map- pure comic gold:)
I will be in in central Illinois/Indiana on Wednesday & Thursday, so that could be interesting, since I expect it that to be ground zero for the event. Fun travel! 😉
Brother Bubba.. I respect your comments and have high respect for the most accurate BubbaCast.. but IF anybody kicks people when they are down is your never ending negative comments AFTER the facts.
Just look at the map. I agree with it too, BTW. It (the boot) wraps AROUND Kentucky. Uncanny.
It is not after the fact though, since it has not happened yet;)
I agree with RhondaB. I still think with .30 with snow ratios its going to be a winter wonderland for most of the state. general 2-4″ isn’t a bad snow..
I rather have a bunch of 2-4″ events WITH power, then a monster storm WITHOUT power.
But with all the models pointing of a GULF storm, just makes ya think how many times those models can’t predict the weather.
The models and ensembles from Saturday looked AWESOME, you couldn’t ask for a more PERFECT OLD SCHOOL storm, then the models completely erase it like a whiteboard is unbelievable!
I guess thats why you have some great meteorologists, like Chris that don’t live or die by the models. He’s like one of us, who gets excited when the models show potential and thats alot of passion for the weather like alot of us have on here, especially for snow.
Let’s enjoy the rollercoaster ride, plenty of harsh winter to go.
Next potential looks to be around the 16th. (yep another “NEXT WEEK” storm and may even bring RAIN)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif
I’m not referring to the upcoming Thur/Fri event. I meant AFTER each event in the past, you know ALL the snowlovers (majority of this blog)don’t need to hear the negative things you say when they had high hopes that it would’ve happened, thats what I was referring to when kicking people as far as your BubbaCast, I’m sure 99.9% of the folks on here have heard it a million times. You RARELY post your weather conditions, a flurry or anything without giving us the onscale of the central Ky snowdome theory or the 32=DRY and 33=RAIN theory.
COME TO THE DARKSIDE, we have cookies!? 😉
Thanks, Coffeelady…your lack of negativity is always an inspiration!
I’m like you, keepin’ the faith.
Tim, not trying to argue…just not understanding the comment.
I’m pretty sure that map is for the lake-effect snow showers today, and tomorrow – not the Weds-Fri. system. At any rate, it has been snowing non-stop here in downtown Lex. since about 6 am…
he aint gettin any of my cookies!!!, and he has to bring his own milk!!..LOL..:P
I agree with Coffeelady & RhondaB. I still think with .30 with snow ratios its going to be a winter wonderland for most of the state. general 2-4″ isn’t a bad snow..
But on the other hand.. The models and ensembles from Saturday looked AWESOME, you couldn’t ask for a more PERFECT OLD SCHOOL storm, then the models completely erase it like a whiteboard is unbelievable!
I guess thats why you have some great meteorologists, like Chris that don’t live or die by the models. He’s like one of us, who gets excited when the models show potential and thats alot of passion for the weather like alot of us have on here, especially for snow. Our turn will come, its just a matter of WHEN.
Let’s enjoy the rollercoaster ride, plenty of harsh winter to go.
Next debate potential looks to be around the 16th. (yep another “NEXT WEEK” storm and may even bring RAIN!)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif
It is. It has nothing to do with the anticipated Wed/Thurs. event.
LOL!
I understood the map to be for the current setup, through Wednesday, not the Thursday system.
LOL…song of the day for Bubba G..
***** YOUR SO VAIN ******
blog version….
your so vain, you probably thing this
blog is about you.
your so vain, bet you think this blog is about you, dont you!dont you!
I had some dreams there were CLOWNS in my coffe, CLOWNS in my coffee….
LOL…LOL…NO PUN INTENDED, we love ya brother BUBBA G…lol…:)
On Saturday.. the models had the perfect “OLD SCHOOL STORM” but with the models erasing it like a whiteboard is unbelievable! I still think 2-4″ statewide snowfall is pretty good compared to what we are used to having! 😉
The next big debate comes around the 16th (yep another “NEXT WEEK” storm and it may even bring RAIN)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif
Boyle County- 21* Periodic light snow….The usual dusting. Precip not showing on radar because the clouds are mostly very thin and very low below the radar beam. Thin clouds equal radiational melting no matter how cold it is.
here is some of paducah’s F.Discuss.
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS OUT…THE QUAD STATE COULD REALIZE 2-3
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AREA WIDE…USING A 15:1 TO 18:1 RATIO.
SNOWFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY…BUT IF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO LOWER QPF AMOUNTS AND WEAKENING STORM
DYNAMICS…LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY RESULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
I saw that as well, but that was suppose to be the storm coming in around the 13th, and the gfs has pushed it up to the 15-17th..with rain to snow event, it is a stronger storm on this run, but if I had a dollar for every storm the gfs had at the 288-300 hr. run, I’d be a RICH MAN!!
me too!! lol It’ll flip flop for the next 288HR range, least we have something to keep us from getting too bored! lol 😉
AMEN!!!…I wish one of those 288 storms would pop up on 06-12hr!!!..LOL.
……..
I’ve noticed the gfs is trying to warm things up around the 20th..If it does I’m sure it wont be longlived..
Light snow is coming down here just north of Hazard. Everything is white outside.
CHECK THIS OUT!…(on radar anyways)..snow is streaking towards the FLorida panhandle!!!
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
Good Morning Folks! We are sitting at 18* and snow showers..down in the south.We also have about 1/2 inch of snow on the ground and still coming down in spurts! Stay warm people!
If all we get is this flurry type snow and cold give me springtime instead. From that discussion looking like this will be another dud for most.
Now thats what I call SNOW!!!!…
http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/details/image/95511/Bless+the+Lake
I noticed that.. The EURO is showing the WARMUP too.. but the EURO also had the GULF low for the THUR/FRI event before as well.. I think they are confused! lol
I’ll say it again.
With regards to snow and the reliability factor of the models why do we even look at them. The only consistent thing about them is the 180 degree turn they make as the event approaches.
JKL has updated the snowshowers from today through Tomorrow. Might issue advisory for VA border counties.
12z GFS is spitting out a little more than the previous 3 runs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_078m.gif
Nah, if I was vain, I would post more 😉
Come on now, can you all not see how funny the maps looks? It wraps around KY and is shaped like a boot pointed in our direction. Ain’t you folks got any comic irony in ya?! 🙂
its official- Coach Brooks retiring. live on wkyt.com now
Well, SProf, If the temperatures remain as they are predicted and we keep getting the snow we are getting now we will likely get a significant snowfall Wed – Fri. (about 3 inches)That’s on top of what we get now and tonight. We have about 1 inch here now.
BADDDDDDDD MOON A RISIN!!! DAAA,FSDAAFDA
I SEE TROUBLE ON DA WAY!!!!
yep he who sleeps on MR FREEZE will be very,very suprised!!!
remember what Chris THE LEGEND Bailey said bout this winter.
and Myself and couple others said we going OLD SCHOOL!! well if this aint old school then I dont know what is.
now all that is missing is a 12 inch plus snow and its acoming and HADIS is coming with it.
Thanks Michael S! Its always nice to see the most recent model runs as they come out.
Here’s to hoping the rest of the noon model runs bring in more moisture for the Thurs System!
When is it coming Rolo so i can be prepared ?
The 12z GFS has the Gulf low back on it.. heres to more flip-flopping!
that looks like a good swath of 2-8″ of snow with high snow ratios.. .25″-.50″ off of the 12z GFS.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_108m.gif
22*
light snow
although there has been no real accumulation since daybreak, it has been snowing nonstop since before daybreak this morning…
Tim, it was snowing when I came to work this morning, and has not stopped. For a while, the ground and everything was shite. Temp has risen to 21, and winds are blowing a bit, so it is blowing off now, but still snowing lightly.
Maybe it is trying to get us prepared for bigger things coming up say,….oh.. toward Thursday/Friday? 😉
(Let’s hope so!)
uh-oh….moderation…..I swear I did NOT say anything mean, either…
JKL has put out a SWS for its entire area.
…ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY…
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS INTERACTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON…WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING
THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED TIME…SNOW WILL LIKELY COVER ROAD
SURFACES…ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE UNTREATED.
ALSO…FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND BETWEEN
5 AN 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND AROUND ZERO DEGREES. USE CAUTION IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO BE
OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME
1203 pm. update from NWS in JKL….
WILL UPDATE THE ZFP TO INCREASE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL FACE THE SCENARIO WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL FALL WITHOUT MEASURING AS SNOW RATIOS ARE EXCEEDING 30 TO
1. WITH FRIGID AIR IN PLACE…ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL ACCUMULATE AND
FEEL THAT A COUPLE OF INCHES CAN PILE UP FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE HARD TO MEET SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER AN INCH IN
ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR NOW. WILL REVISIT THE IDEA WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR
EXTREME EAST. AT THIS POINT…THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IN THE MEAN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 1000-850 MB TRAJECTORIES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
well if this all pans out just right my kids may get the entire week off of school..wont they be happy campers…
Been snowing in Lexington all morning.
The boot is funny……hopefully it will keep on swinging to the west so we in Richmond can get a bunch of snow too!
What does JKL stand for? (is that Jackson)
Why doesn’t JKL just go ahead and issue an advisory for tonight. Especially with the enhanced chance for snowfall tonite. Even a general 1-2″ of dry, powdery snow would warrant an advisory.
Chris has a new update….
When a SEC teams comes to BG and finally plays a real road game they get beat…Guarantee Miss St’s last trip to Diddle…WKU 55 to Miss St. 52….And yes there is more schools in this state then UK and god himself John Wall…GO TOPS!!!! Here is to another run in the NCAA tournament…
were discovered to be more sensible and cozy inside the bedroom invicta further use was integrated into the divan base themselves replica watches Most beds these days have drawers or cupboards built into them replica tudor excellent for storing extra beddings or youngsterss toys omega The compartments either speak in confidence to the aspect replica omega or when space wouldnt permit the drawer can be discovered at the foot end of the bed Modular
Nice blog keep it up