Good Sunday everyone and welcome to the coldest day of the winter… so far! I don’t think today will come close to being the coldest we see before all is said and done! 
Still… it is plenty cold enough. We are talking about the cold and the increasing chances for bursts of snow over the next few days and what is likely to be a widespread decent accumulation later this coming week.
In the short term… it is just plain old cold! We will start out today with temps dipping into the single digits for those areas that have clear skies and to near 10 for those with clouds. You can see how low we go… right here…
Current Temps
Highs today will again be in the upper teens to low 20s with wind chills back in the single digits much of the day. Here are your temp tracking maps…
Current Temps
Wind Chill
A few more snow showers or flurries will be possible today amidst periods of partly sunny skies. Our northwesterly wind flow will strengthen over the next few days as a couple of weak impulses drop into the region to combine with some moisture from Lake Michigan to produce more widespread snow showers and squalls.
This is a pretty good setup for a couple of waves of fluffy accumulating snows with the highest amounts across the east. This could be enough to cause some school delays and closures from Monday through Wednesday. Highs will run in the 20s with lows in the teens.
That brings us to the arctic wave of low pressure coming our way by Thursday and Friday. This will likely bring widespread accumulating snows of a couple to several inches. It all depends on how much moisture can be pulled northward from the Gulf of Mexico. It won’t take a lot because of the very high liquid to snow ratios that will be noted. The GFS is now most aggressive with the moisture…
Thursday Afternoon
Thursday Evening
Thursday Night
Friday Morning
If the GFS is right… we would be in the “several” inches of snow category for the end of the week. It all depends on how strong that arctic wave gets and that is something to watch in the coming days.
Behind the snows… even colder air surges in for the weekend with highs in the low and mid teens possible. There is also a chance we go below 0 at some point as well.
This is going to be one wintry week ahead and it won’t stop there! 
I will update later tonight… take care.
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Thanks for the update Chris. I’ve been sitting here waiting for it.
Thanks Chris!!!!!
As I type this @ 3:40 am, it’s 8 degrees in Lex. Anyway, can’t wait to see what this cold air brings because there is nothing worse than bitter cold with a snowless ground…..No mention of the “cat fight” in the previous blog? That’s ok; you have a LIFE and it’s 3:40 am and you’re tired. Hope everyone stay’s warm! I’m very nervous about my electric bill since I’m all electric! UGH.
Thanks Chris. MJ had a good FD. Here is just a part of it:IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THAT WOULD INDUCE NEGATIVE
IMPACTS TO REGION IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST
EXPERIENCE WITH THE MODELING…I WOULD SUSPECT THAT WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO GET SOME FORECAST CONVERGENCE ON AMOUNTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY TUESDAY. Sounds like NWS is on the band wagon now.
how smart are these guys at JKL
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD
TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE CONSENSUS IS NOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE…WITH AN EXPANDING SHIELD OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH THE MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY STRONG MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS…AND FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE PERIOD 0-18Z FRIDAY. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH AS
WELL…FURTHER SUPPORTING HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOW. BASED ON INCREASED
POPS…RECALCULATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD…GOING NOW WITH
3 INCHES OR SO OF SNOW THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AFTER 0Z SATURDAY WAS LEFT UNCHANGED…AS WERE THE
TEMPERATURE…DEWPOINT…AND WIND FORECAST. AGAIN…THE PRIMARY
WEATHER ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
Only 3 inches ? through Sat from what i have seen on the models and what others have posted on here that is laughable. and WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY to early to be putting out totals
Nashville TN in there discussion this morning is going 4-8 inches of snow as they see it right now. Louisville,Paducah,Saint Louis,Indy all agree a decent accumulating snow will happen with there forecast discussion. Paducah 2-4.
so Paducah 2-4 and the mountains only 3 ? lol thats hilarious i could possibly see paducah 2-4 but central and eastern KY should bet twice that
We are going to zero or below if we get a decent snowpack
Morning all. 7 degrees under mostly clear skies here right now. From reading the posts above this, it looks like the NWS is getting the same idea about the storm that Chris has had all along. Looks like it might be going to snow in these parts toward weeks end.
Chris, if you are showing the GFS, hoe confident are you in its take on this? I know that yo usually go with other models as well, so I am curious.
I have a white ground this morning! BIG frost that looks like a coating of snow. And, as I said, 7 degrees.
MarkLex, I am all electric, too, and I will definitely be scared to open the next bill!
Heres another one to watch for around the 12th or 13th:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_240m.gif
Just went over to noaa.gov and read the forecast discussions for the mid/late week storm. Sounds like all are fairly certain that we get a decent snowfall out of this thing. Make me get a little excited at the prospect. But, I will wait until Chris goes into winter storm threat mode, which, should happen probably by tomorrow night or Tuesday, I would think…THEN, I will get excited! Had too many near misses to bite at this time…
Bubba, one thing is for sure. It’s definitely cold enough, and going to be cold enough for precip to be snow. If the forecast holds, could this one POSSIBLY be the Bubba buster? Here’s hoping!
YEAH, and this is part of MORRISTOWN TN. discussion…even they say more than that!!!…
GFS SHOWS 48 HOUR SNOWFALL MAY BE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FURTHER MODEL RUNS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH BY
MONDAY FOR SNOW THURSDAY.
I wouldn’t worry about it too much, plain electric is a little cheaper than gas in Lexington, and a lot cheaper if using a electric heat pump.
I have all electric and a heat pump and my bill is always over $100 in the winter and my house is not that big. Heat pump’s are expensive to replace too otherwise I’d get one that’s more energy efficient.
here’s is the snow map up until 6am Friday morning…
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Looks like this is as widespread as you can get, so hopefully we FINALLY get hit..
GO BIG BLUE..!! We love ya’ Cuz…!
Gas would be higher.
snowfall maps…
1st…nashville tn. area widespread 5,6+ inches spreading ne.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX
this one same time from JKL..area snow widespread 3+, and still snowing..
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
and this one out of Birmingham Al. just for the fun of it to show its either an all snow or NO event..
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BMX
7 degrees and sunny. Looking out the window it doesn’t look that cold, that’s for sure. But I hope everyone bundles up if they need to be out in it at all today. Looks like a good chili day.
Bring on the snow and stay warm everyone.
Was nice and cold at 5 degrees with my fresh inch of snow outside this morning. Getting ready for the big one now that I have to return to work this week. GO BIG BLUE!
Thanks for the update Chris & goodmorning, get the kerosene stocked up and extra wood on the fireplace! Brrrr!
JKL FD needs to be majorly revised.. Here is the precip model run for the week’s storm. These are 8 hr segments of snow on each run. I’m sure if you are one of the lucky ones to get under a couple of heavy bands.. 6″+ easily. I still think the GFS isn’t aggressive enough it being a 20:1 snow ratio?
http://coolwx.com/ptype/
Correction.. 3 hr segments of snow.
Looks like the models are getting stronger with this late week system just as CB told us they would…
It will certianly be nice to finally see some of the white stuff here in Central Kentucky (even though Lex and a few other areas have had some)
Just went outside to start the car a few minutes before heading to work and the heavy frost isn’t clearing fast whatsoever! Hope I’m not late for work trying to defrost this car!
I don’t know what the exact temp was in Lawrenceburg this morning but I do know that it was Butt Whippin’ COLD!
12z gfs has 4-7 inch snow factoring in snow ratios. 00z candian was about the same.
Snows in the east?
If the sun and blue skies get any brighter, I’m thinking I’ll have to mow my yard…..
Here in Nicholasville we hit 5 degrees this morning. Right now it is 15 degrees and seems to be taken it’s time moving up today. I am looking forward to ome snow and I hope we get it. I have been wanting a huge snow since the orginal blog started and on here before I moved to FL. Now I am back and I am stil rotting for a big snow.
J-A, it really helps a bunch to park your vehicle facing the East, if you can..that way, the morning sun can start & help you along in the ‘defrosting’ dept.!:) I didn’t park that way last night, but moved the car facing the sun while I finished getting ready this morning, and it was completely clear by the time I got ready to leave! My hubby taught me that…proving that he DOES do a little thinking every now & then. LOL!;)
Another good trick is to put an old blanket or throw rug over the windshied. I use to do that when I was a volunteet FF it saved a ton of time when you got a call in the middle of the night.
17 in Paintsville right now. Sun is deceiving that’s for sure. Waiting to see what the week brings…hope it’s something good!!!!
Hey everybody,
17* here in Belfry of Pike Co. We’re wondering about school for the kids tomorrow because we have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. NOAA has made a forecast of 50%-60% chance of snow tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night along with a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday. They also forecast a low of 11* tonight and 12* Monday night and a high of 20* tomorrow. Hope everybody stays warm and if anybody from Pike Co. has an update on school closures please post.
Thanks
Hey everybody,
17* here in Belfry of Pike Co. We’re wondering about school for the kids tomorrow because we have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. NOAA has made a forecast of 50%-60% chance of snow tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night along with a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday. They also forecast a low of 11* tonight and 12* Monday night and a high of 20* tomorrow. Hope everybody stays warm and if anybody from Pike Co. has an update on school closures please post.
Thanks
Hey everybody,
17* here in Belfry of Pike Co. We’re wondering about school for the kids tomorrow because we have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. NOAA has made a forecast of 50%-60% chance of snow tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night along with a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday. They also forecast a low of 11* tonight and 12* Monday night and a high of 20* tomorrow. Hope everybody stays warm and if anybody from Pike Co. has an update on school closures please post.
Thanks
Hey everybody,
17* here in Belfry of Pike Co. We’re wondering about school for the kids tomorrow because we have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. NOAA has made a forecast of 50%-60% chance of snow tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night along with a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday. They also forecast a low of 11* tonight and 12* Monday night and a high of 20* tomorrow. Hope everybody stays warm and if anybody from Pike Co. has an update on school closures please post.
Thanks
Hey everybody,
17* here in Belfry of Pike Co. We’re wondering about school for the kids tomorrow because we have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. NOAA has made a forecast of 50%-60% chance of snow tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night along with a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday. They also forecast a low of 11* tonight and 12* Monday night and a high of 20* tomorrow. Hope everybody stays warm and if anybody from Pike Co. has an update on school closures please post.
Thanks
mitch, even though the 12z says 4-7” it does not make alot of sense…to me atleast. how can it be explained that western ky and eastern ky get 6-10” and then in the middle the storm lightens up? i can’t buy that i see no reason why the storms main snow swath would not come right through the central part of KY also. From how i see things this could be a 6-10 inch snow for areas from indianapolis to dayton south to nashville and knoxville and all areas in between. of course snow ratios along i40 will be lower than those along i64 and i70 but qfp will be lighter along i70 than i40 so it balances out. this will be an interesting storm to watch. even if lexington somehow manages a snowdome trick 50 or 100 miles away will be some big snow, here’s hoping and praying I do not get called to work wed-thu!
Have you cleaned the filters this winter? That helps too!
I’m NOT getting excited for fear I’ll jinx it! I’m calm, I’m calm< I'm calm, ahummmmmmmmmmmm! LOL!
I’m worried about mine, too. I have electric heat, but I depend on a coal/wood burning stove for the bulk of it.(very small house)
My electric bill is usually $90 in the winter, but this one says $170! And the electricity was off 3 days!
I’m going to call and ask about it, not that it will do any good.
Everyone try to stay warm.
usually id say bring the snow on, but I hope it slows down 24 hrs. im heading home from tx wed into thurs nite, and i really wanna
get home. travling via greyhound- houston to atlanta to ky
I forgot about that one,SnoCat, but that one’s a bit iffy when it snows a lot and the air is colder than cold..I did that once, couldn’t get the stuck mess off because the snow/ice had slipped underneath it and froze it to my windshield…I was late for work and got wrote up..lol..;)
Joe Bastardi has an interesting video on the accuweather site this morning on the up coming storm…here is a link if you want to watch…
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=44795589001&title=WOW!
Thanks to the “change of life” it’s like I have a built in heater. I never turn our heat up above 61 during the day, but when hubby comes home it has to be turned up. He can’t believe I don’t get cold during the day. lol Of course, it saves on the electric bill in the winter but not so much in the summer. I leave blankets out for the kid’s when they come to visit. lol
Global Warming is hitting hard this year~~~
not if you have a gas well its not 😉 so i should always have heat 😛
i told you!! he always mentions 1996 storm!!! lol enthusiastic guy but i just want my crippling snow
I know it’t 10 days out but, I hope this one pans out for the following week. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_228m.gif
sweet nectar>>>http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=45673&source=0
Check the years on Bowling Green.
Here is a clip from JKL on the Thursday system
POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL EVENT. IT
FELT WEIRD NOT HAVING TO WORRY ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES WITH THIS TYPE OF
EVENT… BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. PROGGED
QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR THE EVENT BUT SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE HIGH SO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (THINKING ADVISORY
CRITERIA) ARE A GOOD BET. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
I heard China is having its worst winter in 40 years!
About the POWER BILL! It’s the strangest thing….We actually have the fall/spring check for our heat pump. I keep the filters changed religiously and I even keep the heat on 67 and the ceiling fans on low to bring hot air that rises down….My house is a single story 1375 sq ft 3 bedroom 2 bath house. My power bill was 155 this past cycle (I received it dec 18th and that was for 29 days! Back in the fall when the heat pump didn’t need to be used for over a month or so, my bill was 70 dollars. Another theory I have, these new homes are CHEAPLY built and not insulated very well, I remember when it was being built 5 years ago, they didn’t even put the house wrap on it.
Thanks y’all! Looks like I have some tricks to try out now 😉
Oh, and luckily I wasn’t late for work this morning…lol
Me too James!
yeah when they seed the clouds for snow they should expect snow
That statement the NWS Jackson made….. “seems weird not having to worry about percip type” is because for the past decade they have been so used to having to worry about precip type LOL.
I didn’t realize these low tracks had actual names like “Miller A or B” “Lakes cutter”, “Apps runner”, “Plains Hooker” (LOL) which is supposedly is what we are getting late week. I’m sure there are more but those are the only terms I have heard referring to storm tracks.
better hope that well dont go dry, like mine did last yr..:(
My house is 1047 sq feet and my bill was 108 and that was from Nov17 to Dec 20 and I keep it at 68 during the day and 63 at night. Everyone I know says that is still kind of high. My house is only 10 years old and I was told the heat pumps don’t last but 10 or 15 years and that if it goes out you have to get a whole new one which is about $6000 because the govt requires the newer one’s to be more energy efficient. I added another 4 inches of insulation to whole whole attic and it’s helped but not as much as I wish it did.
That italian roundball coach in Louisville is all in favor of a “plains hooker.” I believe a certain world class golf pro is too.
id say for my area we see 8 plus inshes out of late week storm.
O.K. here is my concern with this upcoming snow event thursday. we know its gonna be a snow or no event no question there. but my question is. where the the Low itself ends up moving the folks on the north with out a doubt get snow and probably alot of it..but do the folks on the southern side of the low get snow or ” NO ” and does the low move right over ky. or to the south of ky….TO MANY IF, AND, OR BUTS!!!…LOL…
My theory is if the low moves through southern ky places like cincy gets pounded, and places like london,corbin,somerset get frontal snows,the it stops, then backlash snowshowers…hmmmm…what about it guys? Chris, Mitch,Wxman,Shane, anyone else got an opinion on it….
Yeah, I know Chris will have an opinion about 2am tomorrow..lol…I’ll have to wait on that one til tomorrow around 6..lol…
I’d rather not have house wrap. Yeah, you pay more in utility bills, but you get better passive air exchange without having to resort to an expensive active air exchanger. Keeps the wall cavities more dry as well reducing the risk of mold.
Our bills are around $200 in the winter heating 2800 sq feet (includes 1200sqft basement) in a 7 yo house.
Remember heat pumps are the same thing as an air conditioner, just with a reversing valve to move the heat inside in the winter, rather than moving it outside in the summer.
18z GFS not as aggressive as its earlier runs. Still on the map though, so I guess thats good news
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif
Well it figures. GFS waffling. 18z run keeps heaviest precip far south of Ky. Will probably keep waffling for a couple of days. Someone else with more knowledge please comment on this. Thanks.
True!
Then there’s also virga….How many times have we seen bitter cold air, the state covered in precip on radar for hours, but nothing falls……Suddenly, after hours have past, the precip starts, but moisture slowly creeping east of us….Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
thats expected, the 18z is still trying to put all its ducks in a gulf system, this is a artic wave so the low will form on the artic front, not down in the gulf…so I would say the 00z and 6z will go back to what it was showing today…
Avg. temp. is 19 degrees so far on the month. Only 4 days in I know…but we are starting out 13 degrees below average. Last January had some brutal cold as well, but it also had above avg. temps. By the end of the month we’ll average out pretty close probably.
The NAM is going to be picking up this storm starting tomorrow. So by tomorrow afternoon we’ll be able to get a better handle on the Thursday situation.
Try heating a 4800 sq. ft. home.
WX
You could be correct, but how can you be so confident of that? History can repeat itself. I guess the past decade has made lots of people ultra conservative when it comes to weather, which is understandable I guess. Patterns can and do change over time. Records were made to be broken 🙂
Some of the ensembles tracks takes it thru eastern KY, 12″+ would be noted, but the artic reinforcement may stop that scenerio.
GFS tracks it off of Columbia, SC (4-8″)
ONTOP of Lexington or Jackson = LOTTERY
One thing to remember, the EURO just picked up this new GULF low yesterday, the GFS has just started picking it up, I don’t think its got a handle on the system quite yet, ALOT of uncertainty remains, but I still feel this one is the BIG DADDY! A heavy band of 2″ snow per hour will be pretty awesome! 🙂
I think the PLAINS/GULF low rides up the spine of the apps, let’s just hope its a slow mover!
well we all get about an inch that much is likely but gfs waffle is no surprise esp with it being the 18z. but we will see IF 1-2” is all we manage from this cold snap i guess we are lucky to see our 1-locally2” snow 🙁
What a waste of cold air!!! Bring on spring, I am sick of goin outside and breaking ice on my hounds water!!!
63 at night….wow and I thoughtI was tight with the thermostat. You guys really are penny pinchers. I keep mine on 68 all day and night and it seems to keep the elect bill in check; not too bad.
Man,
If that’s all you have to worry about then get over it. Don’t get the hound if you’re too lazy to take care of it.
It depends on a lot of parameters, but lowering the temp at night with a heat pump can be a bad thing for your electric bill. Often to return the temp in the morning they have to kick on auxheat to raise the temp that far and auxheat can cost 2-3X running the heat pump… so it’s tricky.
Does anyone know what time those clippers are supposed to “land” tonight? I can see them on the radar in northern Indiana and Ohio…just wondering.
rolo, do u remeber someone everyone used to call superstar?
still looks the snowstorm coming midweek will be a decent snowmaker. hope to make it home to enjoy it.
it’s hard to comment using a PSP (Sony playstation portable) but glad they are able to use net via wi-fi , so i can keep up with latest weather happenings . bailey is one of the best.
BERNIE
What about VIRGA? Do u think, based on your thoughts, that we have to worry about that? I have seen in the past when it’s THIS cold that the moisture stays over the state and moves along for a while and nothing falls, then finally it starts falling but the virga lowers the total.
Good question.. I’ve seen that happen too.. but based on all the forecasts I’ve read and model soundings, I expect there won’t be much verga, since we’ve not had a dominate high pressure overhead, as long as we get these little disturbances that will keep the atmosphere pretty moistened, Mitch may have a different opinion then me.
The model runs on Tuesday will have a GOOD solution to the storm. I’m seeing 2 totally different snow total maps.
#1
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
#2
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Now Chris USUALLY uses the #2 map for guidance. I have no CLUE why that map has no snowfall, unless the operational models that they use aren’t picking up the GULF low as like the EURO is.
I still believe the GFS is having a hard time picking up this system, its going to be pretty complex, if the artic air reinforcement slows down, we could be looking at the BIG DADDY, if it comes in faster then the storm, then it will be surpressed more to the TN Valley. I can’t wait til hear Chris’s thoughts.
*JACKSON CO. SCHOOLS-CLOSED MON.
*JENKINS INDEPENDENT-CLOSED MON.
*JACKSON CO. SCHOOLS-CLOSED MON.
*JENKINS INDEPENDENT-CLOSED MON.
*JACKSON CO. SCHOOLS-CLOSED MON.
*JENKINS INDEPENDENT-CLOSED MON.
*JACKSON CO. SCHOOLS-CLOSED MON.
*JENKINS INDEPENDENT-CLOSED MON.
*JACKSON CO. SCHOOLS-CLOSED MON.
*JENKINS INDEPENDENT-CLOSED MON.
Very interesting, but I’m waiting for CB to say, “Very deep snow warning for all of Kantuck”!
Seems you are well versed in heating devices so my question is during these extreme cold nights….10 and below, does it help to switch to emergency heat to keep the pump from running all night long and day too??
In general, no. Most pumps made in the last 10 years or so can get enough heat out of 10 degree air that they’re still worth running… but a HVAC guy who knows your exact system can give you a more definite answer.
If the heat pump can’t provide enough heat to satisfy your temp setting, the thermostat will turn on the aux heat to supplement anyways, which is generally the same as emergency heat.
IF the 18z pans, it’s not showing a GULF low, that will be around a 2-4″ snowfall statewide. Maybe a spotty 3-6″ snowfall. Thats based on .30 gpf totals. Snow ratio may squeeze out a spotty 7″.
Dude I work 50 hours a week….dont call me lazy. I am just sick of the cold dry, warm wet winters..
I think the 2nd map doesn’t show any snowfall because it is valid for 12Z Thursday (pre-storm).
yea Chris G there was a guy name SUPERSTAR JR!! dont know if that the same guy u talking bout. he was a NAPIER.
we called him back in the day,
OH! It’s VERGA…..Not VIRGA? I was spelling it as to how I had seen it spelled before. Guess I should have Googled it.
Leslie, what is your total snowfall on the season in Boone county? I am moving to Ft. Thomas for school in a few days and was wondering how much the area has recived so far.
18z gfs a little to light with qpf, would yield a 3 inch snow, 18z dgex/nam would yield a little over 4 inches regionwide, jma 3-4 inches, 12z gfs 4-6, 12z candaian about 3 inches. another 24 hrs to watch the trends still. right now a 3-5 event would be the best guess.
I’m pretty close to the airport, and we’ve had a bit over 6″ so far. With that being said, it’s been in dribs and drabs for the most part…I think maybe 2″ is the biggest single snowfall we’ve had so far. I’m hoping the storm at the end of the week gives us more!
Mitch do we have a pretty good chance of this snow?
Hey guys! Love the blog as always. Anyone know the track of the storm yet and whether any stalls or strengthening will occur? Out here in Murray, Ky wondering what our impact may be? Thanks in advance.
*PIKE CO SCHOOLS-1HR.DELAY MON.
*PIKE CO SCHOOLS-1HR.DELAY MON.
*PIKE CO SCHOOLS-1HR.DELAY MON.
*PIKE CO SCHOOLS-1HR.DELAY MON.
*PIKE CO SCHOOLS-1HR.DELAY MON.
for those wondering about verga the gfs mos has relative humidity values around 75% at 12z Thursday when the precip starts, so any period of verga would be brief.
Hey Mitch, are we supposed to get more than flurries tonight in scattered parts of eastern ky? thanks
Will the snow make it in to Central Kentucky from lake Michigan tonight. It looks like it is headed this way.
The 00Z NAM looks VERY impressive with the arctic front and associated snowfall coming into the picture midweek.
this gulf moisure is being underplayed. 3-5 is conservative, but you have to be like that when it comes to snow in central ky. TG had a good write up on his wkyt blog back during the December storm, ultimatley as a meteorologist in this area during the winter forecasting is pretty difficult.
yea!!! i am excited i based my decision to go to nku totally on snow lol, its safe to say no one loves a blizzard as much as me…after the december 2005 storm december 2004 feb 2007 jan 09 and march 2008 snows that i experienced up there i knew exactly where i had to transfer for my last two years, bring on the snow for nky!!!
not totally sure Thomas whats going to happen but 4 or 5 inches looks possible at this point maybe more its hard to say. when the nam gets within range more accuracy can be put into precise totals.
NAM starting to come into play here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_228m.gif
Sorry. Wrong map. Try this one. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/model_m.shtml
Ill get it right before the storm gets here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
I want my fluffy snow in Eastern Ky, no school Mon, Tues and Wed. When will we get this snow?
Thanks Tommy! I will wait a couple days and ask again when the factors narrow more. A lot of discussion about January and February may be like the blizzards of 77′ & 78′. I am curious as to the validity of these claims and what makes the seasons similar? What do you think are the odds that we may see a blizzard this winter season?
yes! we need to connect tx/ark energy with mo. energy if we mix them its big if not then 3-5, either way good snow but lets hope we can combine them!
for western northern and (well eastern ky allready got a widespread 10”+) ky areas good but if central ky doesnt do the big one this time then we’ll likely deal with WAA again after this cold snap and that equals ice cky and snow n&w ky. man i want a blizzard!!!
All we have gotten this season is a few flurries and not even enough to be a dusting, but I have been through several severe weather elements and would like to see a blizzard to cross that off my list.
yea it’b be nice. one thing for sure someone in or near the region is going to get a heavy snowstorm, worse comes to worse i will have to drive to it 🙁 but i’d rather it come to me.
Thats good news, when it comes to winter weather I always claimed this part of the state had a snow bubble over it, but I had not lived here since 1997 until this pat year. I missed the 2004 snow storm, but made it for the ice storm, yuck! 🙁
Just curious on what the snow ratio was in Eastern Kentucky for the December 18th snow. I had no power for 11 days, no water for 4, and no internet for 15. Really don’t want a repeat. Temperatures were not bad then, but trying to stay warm with day time temperatures in the teens and overnight lows near or below 0 would be tough.
00z GFS is getting weaker for our Thursday system. I’d say we all will be looking at a 1-3″ snowfall event region wide.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif
Been reading NWS discussion and updates all day. Two days ago in my area was a .01 to .1 precip, yesterday a .1 to .25 and now this afternoon the storm precip is between .15 and .35 with some areas higher. With a 15:1 ratio they are using thats 3 to 6 inches and the closer the storm approaches the better the forecast models are. Hope this brings good news!
I bet your glad to have the internet back.
It’s snowing outside right now (East Point)…not a lot coming down at the moment, though.
it looks like that run is driving the cold air in faster to me, i may be wrong but if that happens the amounts wouldn’t change much because you would have higher ratios
Closed now.
You are……
jk…:) gotta use the reverse psychology theory….we have hoped several feet of snow each winter and came up dry…..lets try somethin different lol
On WYMT’s site they had them on delay then about an hour ago they showed Pike Co. closed. Now it is back to being a delay. Might want to double check either way in the morning. At least that is what I thought I saw.
If this is going to be a heavy wet snow, I hope it stays away from Eastern Kentucky. I’ve had my share for many years to come.
If it’s fluffy and doesn’t shut down roads, cause wrecks, make electricity go off, etc., I’ll like it!
Preliminary maps showing gulf moisture to converge with storm system.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/Snowstorm.htm#
18z euro still says go time!!!
Snowing pretty good here.
A coating of snow.
thanks! very helpful post!! like the template btw 😉