Good Friday and Happy New Year! I am just dropping by for a VERY quick update as the coldest air of the season is blowing through here early today. Temps will fall through the day and that will lead to even colder air for the next few days as we go into the deep freeze for a long time.
A few flurries or snow showers will be with us today… these will be rather isolated with a much better shot coming in this weekend into early next week.
Track the temps and wind chill here…
Current Temps
Wind Chill
Single digit lows are likely Sunday and Monday mornings across the state. I will have more on the rest of the forecast coming up later today so check back. Take care.
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well since this guy that issued this long term discussion from JKL has my initials i will take credit for the discussion 😉
.LONG TERM…/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…UPDATED
A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE
USED FOR DAYS 4-7 OF THE FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
WERE TO THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. THE ABOVE
MODELS BOTH AGREE QUITE WELL THAT A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND COMBINE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE MODELS USED…VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST GULF AIR TO CREATE A
POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
PROMPTED AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM 18Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 0Z NEXT SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY REASONS FOR THIS ARE AS
FOLLOWS…MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN EXTENDED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WITH SUBFREEZING AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA…AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TO PRIME THE PUMP SO TO
SPEAK…STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS…A 110+ KT 500
HPA JET COUPLING WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140KT 250 HPA JET
STREAK…AND A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 C DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF THESE FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALL COME TO FRUITION LATE NEXT WEEK…AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COULD DEVELOP. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS ANY HIGHER FOR
THIS EVENT UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE ANALYZED. IF THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS…UPCOMING
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THAN THE CURRENT MEXMOS NUMBERS ARE COMING IN WITH. WITH
THIS IN MIND…ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 4-7
ACCORDINGLY…WHILE STAYING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. ALL IN IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE A VERY COLD AND
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
good morning and Happy New Year from Paintsville. Andy Rose, so does that mean very cold air will be in place just in case something materializes in the famous 7 days out forecast? I love reading this blog but haven’t learned all of the weather lingo just yet.
Andy Rose, thanks for sharing that. Maybe this will be the storm that breaks the infamous “snow dome” for all of us! At least, the discussion is sounding more promising!
Happy New Year, and thanks Chris. Looking forward tdo your next update, especially in light of the JKL discussion…
Happy New Year everyone. Had a lite snow shower around 9:30. Sun is out now. Looking forward to tracking the system coming in next week.
Happy NEW YEAR 2010, somebody put another log on the fire! Brrrr!!
Here is a funny for today! 🙂
The Snowdome
(tunes from Johnny Horton – Sink the Bismark)
In December of nineteen ninety-eight the cold rain war had just begun
The Kentuckians had the biggest dome that had the biggest rains
The snowdome was the warmest that ever made its mark
Inside was warm as the sun and her walls were stronger then steel
Out of the cold and foggy night came the cold from the old man winter
And every Kentuckian, they knew and understood
Old man winter had to destroy the mighty snowdome, the terror of the land
Destroy them walls stronger as steel and as warm as the sun
We’ll find that mighty snowdome thats makin’ such a fuss
Old man winter gotta destroy the mighty snowdome ’cause the snow depends on him
Hit the walls a-runnin’ old man winter and spin those winds around
When we find the mighty snowdome old man winter gotta cut her down
Old man winter found the mighty snowdome and on them fatal winters
The mighty snowdome started shifting 15 miles away
Old man winter gotta destroy the mighty snowdome was the Kentuckian sound
But when the mud had cleared away
Old man winter retreated and went down
For 10 long years and weary nights they tried to find her weakness
Chris Bailey told the people “Put every model onboard”
‘Cause somewhere on this land I know she’s gotta be
Old man winter gotta destroy the mighty snowdome to the bottomless pit!
We’ll find that mighty snowdome thats makin’ such a fuss
Old man winter gotta destroy the mighty snowdome ’cause the snow depends on him
Hit the walls a-runnin’ old man winter and spin those winds around
When we find the mighty snowdome old man winter gotta cut her down
The fog was gone on the 12th year and they saw the mornin’ sun
Ten degrees away from snow the mighty snowdome made its’ stand
Chris Bailey said “Turn those winds around”
We found that mighty snowdome and we’re gonna cut her down
The northern winds were aimed and the snow were comin’ fast
The first artic wind hit the mighty snowdome, they knew she couldn’t last
That mighty snowdome is just a memory
“Destroy the mighty snowdome” was the battle cry that shook the central skies
We found that mighty snowdome thats makin’ such a fuss
Old man winter destroyed the mighty snowdome ’cause the snow depends on him
Hit the walls a-runnin’ old man winter and spin those winds around
When old man found the mighty snowdome old man winter will cut her down
Someone must have stayed up all night working on that, uh Bernie? That’s pretty good.
Thanks! Believe it or not, took about an hour this morning.. lol 😉
That cold air rolling in wasn’t messing around. Bottomed out at 16F at my house in NW LEX.
Well, the 06Z GFS showed us getting smacked around all month with repeated snowstorms and cold. The 12Z run now says maybe a flurry here and there and that’s about it. Hmm…
I noticed that also. Is that the usually flip flopping of the GFS? What are the other models saying to make the NWS mention it this far off?
Here’s the best way to put it. If the cold temps shown on the model are correct, it will just be flurries. However, if there is indeed more precipitation like the previous model runs said, then we will see the upper air levels start to warm and it will be a freezing rain event or just plain rain depending on how much the surface temps will warm.
Ha ha Bernie. That doesn’t surprise me. That is the way my poems usually flow…but it gave me a good chuckle to start the new year. To borrow a phrase from afriend of mine…-2010…..wow! May this be the year the snowdome goes down!
The models always flip-flop like that…you really can’t trust them until like the day before.
From what CB says, if they are in agreement, it’s a good sign, however, they can and do change quickly.
That’s why I don’t take the models at their word…I just wait for Chris to translate it to real time.
Some of the other weather folks on here are good, too. I like reading their take on the models and the forecast.
Mitch, WXman, anyone who might know the answer to this…
What are the actual amounts for the legend at the end of the maps pertaining to the amounts of moisture? For example, the light green is 0.01 to 0.1,
the blue is 0.5 to 0.75…what exactly does that translate into inches?
Thanks for any help!
it really depends on the liquid content of the snow it maybe 10 inches of snow for an inch of water or it could be 20 inches of snow for the same water. The snow that eastern and SE KY had was more along the lines of 10 to 1 or maybe even less. The colder the air the more snow to water equivalent typically
Mitch, Shane, WXman or someone else may give you a better knowledge then I can..
0.01 of an inch is hardly much precip, just a flurry maybe..
the higher the precip levels and the more we go below the freezing mark can raise the precip total of precip to snow ratio. A steady 32 degree snow, usually gives us a 10:1 ratio or 1.0″ of precip would be 10″ of snow. IF its colder it usually means a better precip to snow ratio. 25 degree usually is a 15:1 ratio or higher, the wind chill and dew points play a big part on the ratio as well. I hope that helps.
The standard of 10:1 ratio that I think of is:
0.00-0.10 = flurry to dusting
0.10-0.20 = flurry to 1″
0.20-0.30 = 1-3″
0.30-0.40 = 2-4″
0.40-0.50 = 2-4″
0.50-0.60 = 3-6″
0.60-0.70 = 3-6″
0.70-0.80 = 4-8″
0.80-0.90 = 4-8″
0.90-1.00 = 5-10″
as for ncep qpf output which is what you’re asking about
.01-.1 light green
.1-.25 green
.25-.5 dark green
.5-.75 dark blue
.75-1 lighter blue
1-1.25 even lighter blue
1.25-1.5 even lighter blue
1.5-1.75 light purple
anything over the next week snow ratios will be 20:1 since it’s very cold. that mean for .1 qpf 2 inches of dry powdery snow will fall.
It’s been flurrying here in Berea for the last 30 mins or so.
Madison County – Berea
Dim sunlight & flurries
28.1° FALLING
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!!!! I hear the wind howling temp at 23 degrees here in Pikeville according to my computer.I love the poem Bernie you need to move back home lol.
Thanks Andy Rose, Bernie, and Mitch! I understand it better now…the light green is not as low as I thought it would be, depending on the ratios.
I appreciate your explaining it to me.
It’s obviously what I am looking for , thank you for information , 徵信社 cheer!
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