Good Saturday afternoon gang. The POTENTIAL storm for New Year’s is really gaining steam as the European Model continues to show a thing of beauty if you want a snowstorm around here…
Thursday Morning
New Year’s Day Morning
Saturday Morning
This model continues to be rock steady with this kind of solution and is showing what would be the third blizzard to strike the country in a two week stretch. That is some big time cold coming in behind the departing storm with some serious wrap around snows on Saturday.
As we say in the TV business… stay tuned!
Take care.
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Thanks for the update, Chris. Hope everyone had a very merry Christmas. Heres looking for a white New Years. As you said Chris, I will be staying tuned.
NO POWER OUTAGES, PLEASE! I admit it, I’m an electricity junkie… 🙂
Things sure look interesting…thanks for the update, CB.
is it showing a big storm for us or just one for the eastern side of the country?
is it showing a big storm for us or just one for the eastern side of the country? if anyone can help me it would be helpful?
intersting but its 5 days away…if this were a rainmaker 5 days out well thered be no doubt but we’ll see i rekon
Andy Rose wrote:
Hey Mitch or Shane or Chris what models are supporting 45 degrees tomorrow? I thought it was suppose to be cold but JKL is calling for sunny and 45 tomorrow is this right? Based on prior track record i am doubting it just trying to get some outdoor work planned for tomorrow
Reply to this
Friday, December 25, 2009 3:28 PM mitch wrote:
no 35-40 east and near 35 west with more clouds. this fits in well both mos and raw guidence. with 850 mb temps near -10 even with a little sun that forecast of 45 will likley be off a bit.
Reply to this
Friday, December 25, 2009 7:03 PM Andy Rose wrote:
not surprising thanks Mitch
Reply to this
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I’d say 45 was pretty darn good call today?
Thanks Chris for the updates..
IF you are a snowlover in Kentucky, you will root for the EURO & JMA, that would make alot of people shovel snow for a while! This one would have more impact then the one that hit eastern KY, because this one would include CENTRAL! 🙂
The reason I like the New Year’s storm, the HPC total precip map, it gives us an idea of where the tracking is. The GFS bios is surpressed or puts the moisture too far to the south and with reinforcing artic air coming in around the same time, this is going to be very interesting for alot of us! My thinking its tracks just over or east of the apps.
BRAND NEW 12z HPC
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
Now here is the JMA (shows freezing line above KY, but that is a 6 hr DELAY, so that would put the moisture with the ARTIC AIR. Mitch or someone else can verify that info for us.
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif
JMA just updated I think.. Now its coming in with what the EURO is showing..
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif
I can’t really interpret the Euro. Can anyone indicate what those runs might mean for Lex and Central Kentucky?
JKL and LMK pretty much say its no big deal for us according to the AFD. Oh well…its still a few days away.
IF it pans out.. BLIZZARD! 🙂
They’ll probably awaiting what the GFS & NAM puts into the pot as well on Monday model runs.
Can someone explain to me why arctic air sometimes suppresses storms while other time’s it doesn’t?
Got it. Would suit me fine. Corn beef, cabbage, and closings.
yeah i agree maybe that forecaster should play the lotto LOL needless to say temps didn’t behave they way they were predicted yesterday by anybody or most people today
Those two discussions are, in a word… pathetic! The guy writing the JKL extended discussion is the worst in the biz… bar none!!
All we need now is the NAM and GFS to start showing this madness and I’ll start to get excited.
Looks to me if the models continue the trend through tomorrow and especially Monday then we are certainly onto something.
Oh yeah, today’s my birthday y’all! 🙂
most folks were around 42 which is in the fairly accurate range when forecasting a high temperature of 38 for the day. However my thoughts were about 2 degrees to low because of expected cloud cover which was not present today.
Yes JMA is showing that as mainly snow with a mix south. still some differences between that and the euro.
doubtful but several inches of snow could fall.
the other offices such as paducah, indy and charleston aren’t better with this storm. we should be lucky to even get an expteded discussion as nws indy does not provide one and at the pittsburgh office you’re limited to the amount you can write in a discuission. I would like to have a detailed discussion like MJ’s everyday and I don’t agree with limited details in the disucussions. For now we’ll have to anaylize the models on our own.
18z gfs takes a step in the right direction I’m sure the 00z run will take two steps back.
Isn’t it strange; they new about this blizzard striking the plains as a “certainty” pretty much 4/5 days before it happened and it verified. Here we have to wait until the day of
Happy Birthday John-Austin! Wish for a dry powdery deep snow 🙂
if this actually ever happend that’d be amazing but this is way too good to be true
Well, I don’t know too much about JKL, since I am more in the LMK area, but, undoubetdly, IMO,the absolute GRINCHIEST, whether it be discussions,short-term or extended, and esp in the winter is none other than “DK”..lol…he’s incl. in my in-law’s, so I can say that! ha-ha!;)
LOL…I prefer the terminolgy, “WHEN”, rather than “IF”…
…ever the optimist…;)
Happy Birthday!:)
Boy, you couldn’t have planned THAT any better date-wise, could you??! Do you get double the gifts after pulling that off, or what??! lol! I always wondered how that worked…but then again, I have a cousin born on a Leap Year, so does she only get older in 4 year increments or what…???! 😉 (J/K!)
Amen to that. We just got power back on today after 6 days withour it after that little snow the other day. I cannot imagine what would happen if we had a real honest to goodness blizzard. The world as we know it would end here in LC.
I aint’ sayin’ nuttin’ until Monday. BuubaG is keepin’ it zipped.
Here is a sample of the GFS 18z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_150m.gif
Just announced that Urban Meyer is stepping down as the football coach at Florida for health reasons. Wow.
Double WOW..!!!
…
Because you don’t want to jinx it or because you seen only rain..???
hummmmm…. lol
for you maybe but for the fence south central KY and below it would suck if it was mix
Having the EURO showing a major snowstorm is a BAD thing…because the EURO has a horrible track record (no pun intended) for eastern U.S. Winter storms.
However, make no mistake about it I HOPE KENTUCKY GETS ABSOLUTELY CLOBBERED BY THIS THING. I want to see so much snow falling that there is no possible way the salt trucks can keep up.
That would be a nice 30th b-day present for me. So much snow I wouldn’t know what to do. As long as the roads are clear by next monday. Some of us working in law enforcement still have to go to work.
Yes, it may mean that Charlie Strong never coaches a game for Louisville.
I was thinking the same thing….lol
…
uh… not this year. the euro had the corect solution 3 or 4 days before the gfs or most models on all three systems this month. the gfs just has to many issues with it which I outlined earlier. many forecasters disagree with that statment such as MJ who from his comments clearly prefers the Euro model.
Thank You Debbie!
Some years I have gotten jipped but this year was overload. I can definately say I was blessed this year 😉
Today was an awesome day, finally got to wash some cars!
🙂
too surpressed
The recent blizzard that went through north carolina to new york City was first picked up by the EURO, and the NAM model did best on placement of precip, it just didn’t have the temps right so the snow was too far west on the NAM model……the GFS has been a follower on the storms in the east this year so far so lets hope the EURO is right and the others follower after in case this is the real thing for us so people can have a warning
CJ is saying its Bobby Petrino ay Florida. Wow, what a skank that guy is.
Snow, Snow, Snow.
Mitch looking at the maps now what does that mean for east ky snow rain or what?
Mitch or Chris looking at the maps now what does that mean for east ky snow rain or what?
Is this suppose to be a wet snow??
As long as its after new years eve I dont care I have plans paid for and will be mad if I cant make them due to the white stuff
Just that every non clipper event has either been a model bust or ice event for the past eleven years. Anyone notice how is ice or rain outlooks are dead on accurate, but snow events have been dead wrong every time?
For this reason, I will zip it until Monday;)
Yes the temp profiles are the Euro’s main issue. But if you watch closely season after season you’ll notice it has a lot of trouble with the track of lows too. I got to where I rarely even take it seriously.
Canadian is the only reliable model…GFS,NAM, EURO are always wrong…Canadian is always right
Does their discussions really matter that much since the system is 5 days out and more times than not these don’t pan out as first expected? After all, a discussion is not the same as a forecast.
Done 🙂
Snow pretty accurate for eastern Ky, now if they can pan one out for central Ky! 😉
So… In years past I have always brought snow home with me from the Great Lakes… Will this year be the same?!?!? We’re leaving Tuesday evening or Wednesday… It hasn’t stopped snowing up here since around noon on Christmas Day!!!
To me looks like “significant” light snow and some ice is on the way to se and eastern Ky. for wed.-fri.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Ya learn smoething new everyday. It’s true I guess!
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