Good Saturday everyone and welcome to the day after the big day. The big weather change has taken place as we are now into a much colder pattern that is likely to grow into something that can go down as legendary for much of the country as we head into the new year.
In the short term… we are looking at a decent Saturday across the region. We will see a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday will see a weak system dropping through by the afternoon and evening hours. This will create a band of light snow and snow showers that will carry us into early Monday morning and may put down some small accumulations. Highs Sunday will be in the 30s.
A few snow showers and flurries will be possible on Monday and some of these may linger into early Tuesday… especially in the mountains. Highs will run in the upper 20s for Monday then low 30s for Tuesday.
All eyes will then focus on the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week as a potent storm gets going. The models are getting VERY close to advertising something HUGE for the middle and end of next week and this is going to be getting a ton of attention in the coming days. The European Model is the most aggressive of the bunch…
New Year’s Eve
January 1st Evening
That has one heck of a look to it and would be a major winter storm for much of the eastern half of the country as arctic air pours in behind it.
The GFS is getting close to showing something similar during the same time, but does not go into a full phase of the jet streams like the European Model does and is therefore faster and weaker…
Wednesday Evening
Wednesday Night
This will be an interesting few days of storm tracking as that storm looks like it has a ton of potential. Given the last two storms over the past week have been historic for different parts of the country… this storm cannot be taken lightly.
On a related note… January has all the makings of something from the famous winters of the late 1970s. 
Let’s see how it all works out.
More updates through the weekend so check back. Take care.
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Sounds good just hope it holds.
Let’s see. OKC and Tulsa had blizzards. OKC has NEVER (since records have been kept) seen that much snow, from one storm, EVER! My home town, has seen a big snow (first time in twelve years)..Perhaps the dome will be broken this winter. We still have three more LONG months…It will only take ONE big storm for us to be sick of snow…You know I’m right :)………Just NO ICE STORM or WET HEAVY SNOW…….22 degrees and heavy snow and people having to common sense not to drive in it (unless they absolutely have to) will be great 🙂
Dallas had it’s first white Christmas in 80 years.
I dunno
I think it’s just some sort of weird fluke that the storms have tracked in such a way that we haven’t been on the receiving end of storms. I mean, we’re in the same spot in North America that we have always been (east of the plains/west of the apps/gulf to our south. WAA (due to our location) always had its opportunity to surge into our area (we haven’t moved)….Yet we always managed to get crap loads of snowfall back in the day! Surely it will happen sooner or later.
can anybody say, FEEL LIKE ISH AT 7AM..
man gotta get something in me, tx ole Chris THE LEGEND Bailey
Well, how many times have we heard, the potential big one is out there and excitement reigns the days leading up to the event only to be denied by mother nature time and time again. I for one am not getting pumped until the stuff if falling on my back deck. Still plenty of time for big snows but Im just not convinced we are in the right spot as MarkLex spoke of in his post. We are in a meteorlogical dead spot it seems. The weather loves to dash to our northwest or out southeast. It’s just odd how the weather acts before our area and after its past our area. Enough weather. Hope all had a good Christmas
since we just received electricity for the first time since last weeks storm, I hope that we don’t get another big one.
Morning to all. Beautiful morning out, crisp, and clear, and cold.
MarkLEx, I agree with you, Sooner or later we will bust this pattern, and get a snow! We just have to be patient,and it will happen.
Well, we are having Christmas today, so, I am going to say Merry Christmas again! Got things to do, so I better get on it! Check in later for updates. Everybody have a great day!
Looks like a fun few days of tracking ahead Chris! Maybe this will be a snow maker for central Kentucky 🙂
Oh, it my brithday y’all!
Chris,
thank you so much for the informative and friendly posts! I continue to be impressed with your blog and am a huge new fan! Please keep it up. Happy New Year, all.
Lisa
Happy Birthday John-Austin! Hopeyour Christmas was a very Merry one!
Our temp is now at 37. Beautiful day out!
Enjoy Christmas with your family coffeelady!
gfs is very slowly coming around to the euro once again however this 12z run was still missing puzzle pieces of the storm next week thanks in large part to some major biases in the model. The euro model may be holding back the energy to much on Wednesday which would mean the storm would move a little faster and not as deep which actually makes more sense.
GFS biases
1. way to suppressed
2. to much emphasis put on the northern stream
3. to quick to send energy to the east and putting to much emphasis on the first wave in a complex low pressure system like this one
all three of three of these are biases in the model and like with baseball three strikes and you’re out.
what everyone should take out of this is not to trust the gfs at all. wave 1 tracks from Texas on Wednesday and into the mid Atlantic by late Thursday the main low will form in the gulf Thursday and track up the east coast for new years and Saturday.
**** GET READY *****….LOL…
THis forecaster is saying the same thing Chris is about next weeks storm…
part of his particular blog…
I am skeptical about any two stream forecast the GFS has. The fact is the models ensembles are going right to the means for a mid atlantic monster yet again. This one, with more northern branch, should be a large storm So the system that is in the plains Tuesday is gone Thursday, but it weakens coming out of the mean trough and there is too much left behind.
Then it gets going. The next wave over the gulf comes northeast along the boundary between the cold air and the advancing new cold air, so once again look for the wave not to jump to the front offshore. The GFS is simply trying to put its eggs in the basked of the 1st system mentioned above and its tricky , because it might happen, but I dont think so. It smells of a feedback fiasco. Instead the first one weakens and the phasing comes with the second one. This one like the mid atlantic mauler has little snow west of the Mississippi but starts cranking it out New Years eve in the Tennessee valley with the threat of another major storm and with the arctic branch charging in, blizzard near the east coast Friday and Saturday
……….
THat part about CRANKING IT OUT IN THE TN. VALLEY ON NEW YRS. EVE…Makes me tingle all over…LOL…LOL… is this an area wide snowstorm for KY. or another east ky. storm??…hmmmm gotta love this loaded winter…
HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!
Merry Christmas coffeelady…have a great,wonderful day with your family..:)
Boyle County- 44* Sunny with a cold wind. I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas.
I am yet to be impressed with the snow chances around New Years.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Merry Christmas Coffee hope you have a great day with your family you deserve it.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Happy Birthday!! Wish for some snow for in central KY!! 😉
even though central ky will likely miss out on any big snow for this storm staring mid-late next week it is very interesting how massively awesome of a pattern we are in. I’d be happy for the ohio river counties to get hit hard which as we know is alot more realistic than expecting lex to get hit hard. as of now i am back and forth between heighland heights and lexington, so i sort of get my choice for where i want to be when i am not working. btw they’ve allready got 5” on the season in H.H., ky.
I know everybody is entitled to their own opinion but surely your not calling an inch of snow significant. It maybe significant in southern FL or GA but not around here
Hi, guy! I’m absolutely acclaim that way of thinking and all of joined.