Good late Monday morning everyone. I don’t know if it is right… but the brand new NAM lays a good old fashioned snow smackdown on central and eastern Kentucky. Here is the WOW…
More updates to come later this afternoon. Take care.
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Good late Monday morning everyone. I don’t know if it is right… but the brand new NAM lays a good old fashioned snow smackdown on central and eastern Kentucky. Here is the WOW…
More updates to come later this afternoon. Take care.
Chris, it just keeps getting good er and gooder!
Thanks Chris…IF this is right, this could be a very historic snowstorm.
Looks good to me!
Thanks Chris for the WOW update!!
i am in 6-8”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! bring it!!!!!!!!!
Wow! But did u say Monday morning? U sound like me Chris lol!
your in the 8-10 in pulaski? look they 20” is moving further west i SMELL 1998!!!!!
ok hell with the TREAT,
OLD SCHHOOOLL WARNING IS NOW BEEN ISSUED BY ROLO AND TTOMCAT.
this runs thru late FRIDAY thru WEEKEND!!!
now question to TOMMY AND BAILEY ALL U ALL, do u believe the NAM or GFS which has been more correct lately.
once again, which model do we trust the most TOMMY.
12z gfs will come around! we can’t expect too much consistency from gfs at any time frame, i will say short term nam is typically the way to go
Thanks Chris!!! I’m so EXCITED!!!
I’d be happy with 6″…real happpy!
could u imagine what caus it would be for a live chat about now?
Each model looks like the heavier snow keeps trending further and further west. Anyone have any knowledge/info/insight as to whether this trend is going to continue?
12z gfs is very lost it appears from nam it brings low way out to sea very quick, but this is the gfs we are dealing with. back in january before the ice storm here it said we were going to get heavy snow, nam was on the ice train, we know how that ended up.
I knew Chris would be excited when he saw the 12Z NAM. It is going to be an interesting weekend!
backwards actually gfs out did nam in that storm, but i think 18z gfs will come around.
12Z GFS is warmer. Still takes us near 40 on Saturday. HOWEVER, keep in mind if dynamic cooling really kicks in, the models are going to be way off. That’s what happened in ’98 and that’s why we got more than predicted…the temps. went lower than expected by modeling.
Please GFS don’t go stupid…please GFS don’t go stupid…
Seems as if the NAM and JMA are the only two that are this aggressive though…other models not that impressive as these two
my granmother lives in hickory, nc if they truly are expecting 16-20” i may just go down that way, but if we can manage something good here i’ll stay put. def not going to be in covington over the next few days
Does that have Laurel County in the 6 – 12? And clay even more? BRING IT ON!
yea the GFS is off the snow train,, very interesting.
The fact I have to be on air in Southern WV where the NAM just spit out 20″ for this weekend in under an hour is crazy. I’m not calling for that much in my first call map… but holy cow if that verifies I’m going to be one happy snow lover this weekend.
yea the GFS is off the snow train,, very interesting.
whats ur thoughts on the GFS shane
Ah..looks like the first good strom of the season is shaping up. Weather Channel is still just saying snow showers for southern Ohio, but nam is showing us at around 8 inches now. That would be fine with me, though…it’s my turn to pull weekend duties being an assitant manager (12 hour shift..ugh)..but I won’t make it off my little street if we have that much snow..lol. Plus, the wife really loves snow, so I really hope the new model is right!!
How much fun would that be in 20″ of snow? I doubt the NAM is correct with those totals…lol.
well i must say given recent history i would go with gfs if i was a forcaster but its very close and tonights 18z or 0z’s will be the story tellers. based on my knowledge of snow in ky south of i-71 i’d go with gfs right now, but it is flipping and floppping so who knows?
i think the storm is going to keep drifting west and ky is gonna see a BIG snowstorm
yea but why would CHRIS POST THE NAM then guys, cause that getting people crazy.
I myself hope the GFS trends west and stronger but I think it will go east myself and not change.
so I am not as ecited as i was, but as TOMMY SAID GFS might come around this afternoon.
I feel like i just got hit by a train,
because the fact is the NAM is NEVER RIGHT,
if GFS doesnt come around next run there going be alot of PISSED OFF PEOPLE round here.
ACCUWEATHER says GFS is spot on and has us with only light snow showers with clipper. arggg
worst case scenario is nam and gfs both differ significantly tommorow still, in that case we are wait and see but i think 12z nam is over doing it and 12z gfs is underdoing it, also always remeber the northwest trend and gfs south east bias, new gfs or not remeber the southeast bias.
Is that map Chris posted a Wunderground map?
right now i’d say 2-4 lex 4-6 easky and 6-8 far south east ky, historically those totals fit better for the month of december around here, 8-10 or bigger would be jan, feb, or march storm from climo stand point.
well, I’m going to the grocery store. anybody need anything? 🙂
the night before the last big snow…i drank a fifth of old crow, took my clothes off, put on a sombrero and got arrested. the next day we had 11 inches on the ground. im heading to the liquor store now, tell the salt trucks to load up and the county police to keep an eye out for me.
Right now I think the truth will lie somewhere between the NAM and the GFS. I’m going for a general 5-10″ for my first call but say that those totals can shift up or down depending on how things play out over the next 24 hours. I will say this if the Euro, Canadian, and JMA are closer to the NAM I would probably up those amounts if I were on the air tomorrow or this weekend.
if thats what it takes do it!
yea now we are back to the ole NOWCASTING, I am fogeting bout it till tom afternoon and seew which way it moving.
3-6 will be fine with me from GFS track but DAMN that NAM mad me crazy though, CB should posted the GFS as as well so people could see the difference and understand things better.
Hey lets get this party started …. lets get a first call on snowfall …. im going 3-8 in lex metro area…. we need a chris update gfs has me worried to death …
map will not load for me, what do the snow totals look like for Floyd/Johnson County please? This is so exciting!!!!
GFS says no way…I think No way on that NAM run…It aint happening…gfs says some light accumulations..that sounds more reasonable…
…..
shhhh…its reverse psychology..:):):)
Looks like 98 all over again the “dusting” turned into a snowstorm not saying that this will be correct but its one model run it’s not set in stone yet. What i am wanting to know is if the NWS is picking this up? I checked out TG’s blog and there will be a significant system in here Christmas Eve into Christmas Day after this weekend. i would put that one on Threat Mode next week the models are just now picking it up.
Good thing you added that disclaimer before we started getting the noose ready!
This is the GFS snow total map, you can compare to the NAM at the top.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
IM AFRAID that 1-3 inxhes is more likely because we are only 36 or less out now, the GFS not going to change it actually shifted east from the snow map bailey put up last nite.
this straight up and not reverse sike
once again we get dragged in by the NAM, really why post that damn think when we all know its wrong.
that why BAILEY POSTED BOTH LAST NITE but then only NAM today, blahhhhhh
yea if GFS shifts west then BOOM, but i dont see it because it never does when we need it.
but 2-4 inches is ok, but man OLD SCHOOL look better.
whats the candian model and euro showing for this storm?
Folks, yo may have read more into Chris’s NAM post than what is there. This system will likely impact far east KY with a good snow event and less from that point on.
I think brother Rolo may have put himself on a Rolo-coaster for a let down. This system is not the one I expected to be a big snow maker, but I would probably have said the same thing about the 98 storm too;)
Still, Chris has been dead-on so far, so if Chris calls it on this one, watch out! If not, you can always drive to Virginia and stay in a hotel there;)
no the NAM had me in 8 -12 inch snow, im not let down, i just dont understand why the NAM map was posted and not GFS, that was misleading to the posters see the GFS usual correct as most say.
huh either way lex looks good for 3-4 inches that is more what i would expect from a december system. and even though that cannot totally satisfy me this is lex, ky dont expect anything over that in one storm in 1/12 winters 😀
That surprised me too, since regardless of what CB posted in words with the map, people are going to think it is “legit” as an outlook.
Perhaps CB is seeing something that suggests the NAM has a chance, or he is just posting it since like everyone here, he is having fun too.
The only model that seems to support this is the NAM and how accurate has it been in under 48 hours? I thought the GFS was.
This could be one of those cases that for future events, we disregard the NAM.
Not long to see if the NAM is good or bad for this one.
I know bubba thanks for calming me down ole buddy, hey the 5pm GFS could come west and SMACK US TOO. or nam could be right. lets just set back and see.
BOYS !! BOYS !!!…everyone will get their dusting..:) thats all were used to anyways..anything else is an over-acheiver…lol..lol…
alot of the video forecasts im seeing is showing D.C. to asheville in 12+ with 6″ back to the ky/va border, then I guess we use our imagination from there…
…
HEY CHAS, you and CHELLE, and SHAWNA…get ready, Cantore will be reporting LIVE from the WHITE HOUSE, since they seem to be in the BULLSEYE…LOL..LOL…
last nights nam had 3-4 for lex, past three gfs runs have had us in 3-4 inches, so with that type of consistency i think i’d go with gfs for 3-4 inches for lex area.
WLEX in Lexington just said that our best chance of any snow in Lexington area will be from the clipper and that the totals might reach 2.5 inches. He did state that this was from one model run. I noticed that his map showed Eastern Ky with about 4 inches. He said later that the mountain areas could get more.
Oh yeah, he said the storm to the east will most likely bring us rain with maybe a chance of it turning to snow before the clipper gets here.
pffftt..
well according to the NWS no worries down here in southern ky…they’ve about decided its gonna be an all rain event…I mean rain to snow to rain to snow…YUCK WHO WANTS THAT MESS!!…
point/click for Barbourville,ky…knox co…
Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26.
Sunday: A chance of snow before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
I think the NAM has lost its mind!!!..lol..oh wait it don’t have one…lol…:)
I agree with the GFS. Here is my outlook for most likely (to this point in time)
GFS = 80%
Average of GFS and NAM = 30%
NAM = 10%
Old School = 1%
Using those percents, you can scale up and down to the possibilities.
BTW, my bet that quite a few people have looked at CB’s last post and thought the map was the outlook. Their faults for not reading it, but that is the power of visual material over actual words.
CB is being involved in the posts and simply showing the possibilities he is seeing. All probably part of his analysis for a forecast:)
NOW WAY THAT RIGHT, the storm have to go WEST OF KY for that to happen, there drunk.
we are getting 4 plus inches tim after change over around dark tomm it be sbow rest of way.
Ok how confusing do they want to make it??? here is area wide forecast for knox co. SAME AREA!! all snow event!?!
Friday…Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday Night…Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the evening… Then snow likely late. Lows around 30. Light winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Saturday…Cloudy with snow likely. Cooler. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Saturday Night…Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 50 percent.
Sunday…Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s.
I THINK WE NEED A 5th GRADER TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT, ANYONE KNOW JEFF FOXWORTHY’S PHONE # ???
My call:
2-4″ generally in central KY. Higher amounts only in the mountains of far eastern KY. Possibly 6+” there. Snow Advisory will be issued this evening or first thing in the morning for the LEX area.
yea agree with u WXMAN, I just got pissed cause of the NAM being post and not GFS side by side,
i look for GFS to be farther east this evening which will drop totals down to 1-3 area wide.
o
agree WXMAN and id say GFSA is farther east this even bringing totals dowqn to 1-3 at best area wide and temps will be a factor because of the low be furter away, no cooling cause it be only LIGHT snow.
I would suggest weighting more to the GFS in that average. Perhaps 80% GFS and 20% NAM.
Other thoughts: A) GFS 12Z run BOMBS us at Christmas time and then again the week of New Year!! One snowstorm after another! It really is turning into eye candy for people like Chris Bailey Claus!
B) WLEX is off their rocker. Our only shot at snow is from the clipper?? Are you kidding me? Did these people even go to a met. school?
Not sure of the snow totals, but looks good to me.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gens/12/index_zdp_m_loop.shtml
As much as I would love to see that 20 inch move over Lawrence County I’m not complaining. It isn’t even officially winter yet and I’ve already seen a 3 to 4 inch snow and the pretty good chance at another 4 inches anyway this weekend. Additionally, we have a shot at another few inches Sunday and who knows about the rest of the week. That 20 inch spread makes everyone want more and not happy with a nice 2 to 4 inch storm that had everyone thrilled just a few days ago. Let’s be happy with it and maybe just maybe we’ll get more.
Why is everyone so dependent on the GFS? Right now, it is the outlier of the models. The UKMET/NAM/SREF’s/RGEM all came in looking the same. Even the GFS Ensembles are looking more like the NAM. The big player is going to be the Euro to see what it shows. I’m just not sure I trust the GFS seeing as to how it’s the outlier.
Model things to look out for:
1. Convergence- If one model stays steady and the other starts moving to it- the truth is in between, but more weight to the steady one
2. Both models stay steady = The result is somewhere in between
3. The model that flops the most is too sensitive to a variable- go with the steady one.
4. Both flip flop- Take the net result of the flips and flops. Zero or negative values equal no snow.
The final point is to look at the actual trend of movement for the system- starting at 12 hours into the expected event.
OK- You now have MOST of Bubba’s secrets. Happy guessing! ;):)
You tell’m Justin!!! …lol… I worship which ever model that puts the most snow in my back-yard and right now its the NAM…:)
Euro comes in looking more like the NAM than the GFS. This storm may not do what the NAM is showing as far as totals go, but I’m willing to bet the GFS is dead wrong. Too many things going against it right now.
I’m not dependent on the GFS, any more than I am any other model outlook. I’m just keeping in mind that just because the GFS is an outlier on this doesn’t necessarily make it wrong. No sense in hopes getting up too far until the storm is actually here. We shall all see soon enough which model(s) verify.
was they ever on their rocker???:)
Sorry, my tiny brain is equating comparison with the word “both”. There are more than two models of course.
Final point now is watch out for the outlier- just as iffy as the flippers.
I agree with you completely. Other models may start shifting towards the GFS, but as of this moment, getting caught up in what the GFS is showing is just premature. 00z runs tonight will be the mack daddy run. Let’s hope the GFS shifts towards the NAM instead of the other way around.
yeah, cause if it snows more than 4″ chas wont be able to get out in it…:P:):)…LOL…all we’ll be able to see is her eyes..LOL..
what is the euro saying as far as snow goes?
Thanks for the heads up, Tim! I’m hoping he’ll change his mind and report from a location a little closer….say, my house! LOL!!
last euro was pretty close to the name..
next comes out around 3 i think or 4.
1″ QPF from Eastern KY all the way up to Boston from what I’ve heard. I don’t have access to Euro maps so I have to interpret what people are saying. Haven’t heard if there may be rain that’s enhancing the QPF or what, but most are saying it’s like the NAM.
I think I trust the canadian model the most
sweetness! none of us should be overly upset most of us are going to get at least 3-4 inches and even more in eky, just by using the outlying model gfs, i am not to worried i think gfs is right mainly because of our history with negative trends but who among us won’t take 3 or 4 inches?
I think earl barker tends to over do the amounts quit a bit. Cut it in half and its looking good.
Ok…Chris…looks like you need to give another update with an explaination of the last post. Also, why does it say Monday morning? Ha!
True dat, but most here seem to be comparing the GFS and NAM. GFS is a more likely scenario. Both are current outliers from a lower and upper standpoint. The “lower” of course is supported by actual results of our snow events;)
Geting dirty about it, the Euro, GFS and NAM would seem a fair composite to extrapolate a solution, but the weight you apply to each is the question.
Just avoid the flip floppers, since sensitivity to a variable this close to the even suggests the model is lost. Then take the net result of the flips and flops, but that is even more of a stretch. Kind of like taking an average of an average;)
CB will clear it all up anyways:)
ur spot on EURO was right on with NAM
CHris has links on the right hand side of blog….
……………………
Chris’s Weather Links
GFS/NAM Models
12z Canadian Model
0z Canadian Model
Unisys European Model
European Model
National Hurricane Center
Storm Prediction Center
HPC
Good point in that different models tend to be better, based on the main origin of the system.
Ain’t that the truth, Tim! LOL! 😉
Crazy Henry at AccuCrackWeather has us in the 1-3″ snowfall
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2009/12/new_snow_map_for_the_stormminor_changes.asp
Short answer? Because the Euro is wrong 90% of the time on eastern U.S. snowstorms.
Everyone needs to check out Accuweather’s headline for the Christmas week storm! They have Kentucky right in the middle of the monster! I don’t think I have ever seen something like this for us from Accuweather.
Looks like Accuweather says Merry Christmas Kentucky! The entire state too!
The Canadian Model has been the most consistent with this system by far..Also if you notice Shane’s comments “if the Canadian, Euro, and JMA are closer to what the NAM says then I’d up snow totals”.
THAT is the system I have been banking on since the day before:)
If this weekend system pans out to at least several inches of snow and the Monday one does too- watch out!!!
Lot of “if”s in there, but far better than the last five years of me telling you all “no way” at this same time 😉
He’s not gonna update til MONDAY!! LOL! 😀
LOL..I see ole MAD MAN HENRY has adjusted his snow fall map a bit…he actually has EXTREME east and south east ky..and east tn..in 3-6″ now…
……..
no offense to these guys, and I know they get paid to do it..but when the BIG one is coming their emphasis are on the BIG CITIES more so than the outlying areas…I can understand that I guess…I mean WHO CARES about us COUNTRY FOLK and getting buried in 12″ of snow, we can take it, fire up the stove, cook some grits…and GIT R DONE…thats there attitude!!…I’m about to have a SPELL!!!.. LOL.. I think it was Rolo’s coffee I think I drank his 2nd and 3rd pot this morning…lol..lol..
GOOD THING WE GOT BAILEY CLAUS!!! noboby else feels the LOVE for the snow here in KY….
It is all an issue of weight. I strongly believe in composite forecasts and the weight is based on which models are the more accurate for specific periods of time, out from the expected event:)
I just want snow!! I don’t really care if this is the big one or not! I do want a big one, but I can’t keep my mind on all those traveling to spend the holidays with their loved ones. I’d hate for them to be stranded or worse. A little would be pretty and festive.
Chris THE LEGEND Bailey CLAUS!!!
If those models are correct, there will be quite a few local weather people looking silly real soon.
Boyle County- Temp.44*……Here is my take on the accum potential after looking at the maps.
Along and west of a line from Maysville to Lexington to Danville to Somerset to Tn. border: 2″-4″
West of that area to near a line from Maysville to north of Jackson to Williamsburg: 4″-6″
West of that line: over 6″
(corrected for wording)
Boyle County- Temp.44*……Here is my take on the accum potential after looking at the maps.
Along and west of a line from Maysville to Lexington to Danville to Somerset to Tn. border: 2″-4″
East of that area to near a line from Maysville to north of Jackson to Williamsburg: 4″-6″
East of that line: over 6″
How about Eastren Kentucky.
well more watches have been issued for maryland and northern Va. , as well as parts of extreme northern South Carolina..but nothing back west into this area yet….sitting on the fence with these storms is NERVE RACKIN!!!
I can think of one off the top of my head. I was watching the weather this morning and heard one of our local mets say that at this time there didn’t appear to be much in the way of accumulation from the system on Sat, up to an inch at best. He was much more excited about our chances from the clipper Sun/Mon and about a potential Christmas storm….
We will have all gone insane by then! LOL!
You didn’t honestly think we’d have any watches or advisories up this soon, did you, Tim? 😉
I expect ours will come later this evening/tonight *if* the NWS feels they are necessary.
Chris wants to see one more run of the GFS before he ante’s up for this storm….nws jackson has left their discussion bout this unchanged since last night….their not stickin their head out either. truth is this may be one we only have a 12-18 hr warning about….
LOL! CB posted a map that probably 80% of people that come to the site will just look at the map and not read the words- then spread word in public
that “a biggin’ is commin’!” and then he lays low;)
He is of course working very hard right now, but the picture will drive most of the chatter- not the words that clearly point out it is not snow map forecast.
Good times:)
I bet all the milk and bread is already gone!
The EURO model was one of the first to pick up on this storm a few days ago, i don’t know if that means anything for now but it does have to take the credit for being one to pick up waaaaaaayyy before the Garbage Forecasting System (GFS)
What about it?
Probably not because the nws isn’t making a big deal out of this, and most radio stations get their weather reports from the NWS
I was quite taken back by the commotion caused by me buying a snow shovel at Wal-Mart this afternoon.
LMAO…All stores in WV will now have Salt, Shovels, Gloves, etc. on diplay tables at the front door!….lol
you’ve done it now shane!!! you’ve stirred the pot!!!…lol
Euro is looking very similar to the NAM. My friends most models look closer to the NAM than the GFS… I would not be leaning to heavily on the GFS for this although I do think the NAM’s totals are a bit over done. Those who live by the GFS will die by the GFS.
I also noticed the Canadian 12z was more north and west than it was on the 00z…interesting
So….to cancel or not to cancel my family “Christmas” get together? We are “centrally” meeting in Corbin. I live in Lexington. Hum…..
I have to admit, I’d have the same reaction. Think about it – you see a local met out buying a snow shovel when there is talk of snow for the weekend. How would you react? LOL!
J.B. just posted this on his blog..
THURSDAY
TWIN MONSTER STORMS FOR MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTHEAST. SECOND ONE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER WEST. NUMBER ONE: I-95 CORRIDOR TO PHL, BOSTON 6-12… HEAVIER AMOUNTS BWI TO WESTERN CAROLINAS… EAST COAST BEACHES BATTERED.
SECOND STORM LOOKING LIKE DEC. ’92.
12Z US RUNS PLAYING FEEDBACK GAME WITH TRACK TOO FAR EAST AGAIN WITH NUMBER ONE.
……………
any takers on wanting to take a stab at disecting that comment…
That’s interesting considering that the Euro is wrong 90% of the time on U.S. snowstorms. I got to where I don’t even look at it anymore.
Exactly what I’ve been saying. I’m not a MET by any means, but have been studying this stuff quite a bit over the years. The GFS I feel is dead wrong. All the models are in basic agreement except for the GFS. For anyone to rely on it right now is just mind boggling.
Okay Here’s a layman’s version.
1st Storm: He’s expecting 6-12″ inches of snow along I-95 (Major East coast Interstate). From Washington DC into the mountains of the North and South Carolina even heavier amounts. A lot of beach erosion on the each coast is likely to occur.
December of 92 was a monster of a snow storm that brought big time snow to interior New England and major coastal flooding.
The feedback comment means he thinks the GFS and I’m assuming the NAM as well were suffering from convective feedback, basically making storms bigger and bigger than they should be, and it’s causing the track to be to far to the east for the first storm.
18z nam coming out…still looks decent..not as gung ho as the 12z..but still looks good esp. for SE KY
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif
51*… thats where the temp. sets right now in knox co. and that may be the daggar in the chest down here, I just hope the temps. drop quickly before cloud cover moves in tonight…could mean the difference tomorrow in daytime high temps…of low 30’s and snow, verses 40 and rain…
This is from the NWS in Jackson as of their 1:15pm update.
DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT…GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO INCREASED STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE BOARD…BUT DID NOT GO TOO
CRAZY WITH THIS YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS COME IN
SHOWING THE PATTERN THAT TONIGHTS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BEFORE
COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. THE DAY SHIFT TODAY MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ISSUING SOMETHING IF THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE
WEATHER PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE.
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=KY&prodtype=discussion
yep, and the 36 hr.. looks white as well…so at least it still has us in the game…just maybe a lower score..lol..
Cancel it…The White Death is Approaching!
18z NAM is rolling… sweet Jimmny Cricket this thing is looking nasty!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p12_036l.gif
All of that coming down would be as frozen precip. It would start likely as sleet and transition to snow. Assuming 10 to 1 ratios the dark blues would see 1″-3″ and the lighters would see 3″-6″, with some sleet accumulation under that.
*** WINTER STORM WATCH***** EASTERN KY..LATE FRIDAY,SATURDAY…YIPPPEEEE
As I posted that, they posted a new update at 3:10pm.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE WATCH IS
PROPOSED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM MIDDLESBORO NORTH TO MANCHESTER…THEN
NORTHEAST TO JACKSON AND PAINTSVILLE. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN FIRST
THEN IN LOWER LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL
OVERNIGHT AS GOOD DYNAMICS AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COMBINE WITH
BEST MOISTURE. OVERALL FEEL THAT MOST OF THE WATCH AREA CAN EXPECT 4
TO 6 INCHES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AREAS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=KY&prodtype=discussion
And I want to emphasize that’s just in the first 12 hours of the storm.
Too much change from just one other cycle. Make Nammy walk the plank!
ATM, I stick to my original- mainly a good snow event for far east KY with 5″-6″ and tapers off from there. Mountains of course could fair better.
Not sure on the taper off range yet. Heck, I am not sure on any of it;)
BOOOO!!! I won’t be for my area. I hate winter..lol
Tim, is Morgan Co in that watch?
New Update coming soon.
Morgan would be in that watch. Starting to issue winter storm WARNINGS for areas in Southern WV.
After checking out everything …. it’s going to be a rain event folks. Wit and see. East KY might get some snow, but southeastern KY, Clay, Laurel, Corbin, Whitley and Knox). Enjoy the rain.
Thanks Shane for the comments! I still have really good confidence that the GFS runs will align similiar with all the other models, should start seeing a notice in the next couple of runs.
5-10″…. IM GONNA PASS OUT!!!
Sounds real good with the 4-6″. I”m sure thats still being a tad safe and conservative! 😉
Maybe you should just stick to eating cans and hush! 😉
QUICK – someone get Tim a prescription for Valium!!! 🙂
When you update, pass out some online xanax. Some of these people are getting ready to lose their minds.
I will try but all of my cans will be filled up with rain this weekend. Sorry.
Yeah I’m about to pass out too…probably 1-2″ here in eastern Pulaski County…bunch of snow hogs..lol
ROFLMAO
somebody dial 911 !!! Timmy passed out on the dance floor….:)
Shane what do you see for morgan co I don’t think we are in th WSW are we?
somebody dial 911…timmy’s passin out on the dance floor…:)
LATEST NAM 3-6 FOR LEX!!!!!!!!!! CHEA CHEA!!!!!!! NOTICE many ppl in va and mid atlantic lokking at a cold rain
Somebody dial 911…timmy’s passin out on the dance floor…:)
MODERATION!!!!
Where’d you see that at Tim?
lmk says lex could get in on some fun!, FD was conservative but INTERESTING!!!!!
Marsha, Do you need help finding Morgan County on Chris’ map?
5-10 inches! jghdsghasah!!!!
lex was bordering 0.5 and .75 qfp on latest nam, 18z gfs will be crucial
It’s going to be rain, sorry folks.
if we dont get clipped by the heavy pow i may have to drive down 75 or east on 64 to run across the shell station parking lot in my underwear IN A BLIZZARD!!! either way i am getting my pow!!!
Sure don’t HELP!!!!!!!!!!
somebody dial 911…timmy’s passin out in the snowstorm!!!!!
I liked you better this morning. Drink some more coffee and get back into the spirit 🙂
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE WATCH
AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
* ENOUGH SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL THAT ALL SURFACES…INCLUDING
ROADWAYS…CAN EXPECT TO BE COVERED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS. A HEAVY
AND WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL…WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE DOWNED
LIMBS AND TREES
NWS in Jackson said that 5-10″ is a possibility for some of the higher terrain areas in the SE portion of their watch area.
This map will help you identify Morgan County: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Kentucky_highlighting_Morgan_County.svg
If you can then find it on the map, then you could see for yourself and you wouldn’t have to wait for an answer. I hope this helps.
It’s going to rain.
I still can’t find it I need more HELP!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, but mostly snow. Consider the fact that we are on the NW of this system…
Look, Goat man………quit RAINING on our parade!~
Can you see the map itself?
Did someone say snow? I guess it’s time to start checking back in.
Merry Christmas
Are you saying that given a map of the State which you live in with your county highligthed in red you can still not find yourself on that map or corolate it to another map without having the red highlight?…..
next week we’ll be to far south east lol only in lex can you never win
I’m anxious to see the update.
What map I didn’t look at no map I think I know where I live I’m not quite that stupid yet….
GFS holding true, moved MAYBE 20 miles west, if that…. 00z will tell the story.
18z GFS looks warmer!!!!UGH
what a day it seems I missed coming to versailles from BWG. WKU version of WRF may run for the first time tonight on this weekend event. I will pass along a site once I know it will be posted on the web!!!
doesn’t look that way to me. still looks like some 3-6 inch amounts east maybe higher.
Told u. it’s gonna rain. no snow folks. maybe in eastern part of ky.
Disregard my earlier comment! I was comparing the GFS to the NAM!
Don’t you think looking at the map might help?
Don’t mind her she’s retarded. You’re wasting your time trying to help.
First call snowfall map is up on my blog. Click my name!
18z looks wetter than 12z to me…
Let winter officially begin for se Ky this weekend. First winter in over 12 years? 🙂
My original 5″ to 6″ for far east KY and higher amounts in the mountains is looking good. Any western shift should cause a thumping for a lot of us.
Sure hope CB posts some good stuff after that NAM map thing;)
Still over a day out, so lots can and probably will change.
I know where I’m live on the map I was just trying to asked Shane a question about snow for Morgan co I’m thinking you was trying to say I was stupid if I was wrong than I’m sorry. I’m done with this….
CampusRay posted a map that highlights where Morgan Co is in relation to the rest of the state. Take a glance at it, then look at the maps again and you should get a better idea where you stand as far as the snowfall totals go.
In the range for a good call;)
The more I look at this the more it seems to be one that either misses bad and is more sharp in a northerly track, or it moves more west and thumps a lot of KY.
My reasoning is that if this system gets pulled west, it will be drawn further as the system flows. Kind of like when you have two a small trickles of water on a window and it is drawn and attaches to another small stream.
“Best” analogy I can think of.
Going to see Transiberian Orchestra now!
my mom is headed to that concert. and yea shane i think your maps are dead on. i also like the odds of a northwest trend which would make things interesting because as we often see these things jog northwest at the last few model runs.
I don’t think this person was trying to help me and if he was than I’m am very sorry to this person, But where do you get off calling me retarded Chris why do you let these call us names like this I am done with this blog all this over a question