Good Thursday everyone. The blog is shifting into full WINTER STORM THREAT mode as we are seeing an increasing chance for a significant snowstorm from Friday night through Saturday for much of central and eastern Kentucky. As you know… THREAT mode is only to ramp up awareness for the possibility of a significant winter weather event. If my confidence increases… we will take it to Alert status.
The trend for a faster and farther north and west moving storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is clear as a bell. We are seeing this happen because our second system diving through the middest is being progged stronger which carves out a sharper trough helping pull the east coast system westward.
Both the NAM and GFS are now in lock step with one another suggesting a widespread heavy, wet snowfall for most of the region. Take a look at the impressive snowfall numbers coming from the models…
NAM Snowfall
GFS Snowfall
Here is my early peak at how this MIGHT work out…
1. Precip moves in from south to north on Friday. It will likely be in the form of a cold rain and wintry mix as temps will be in the mid and high 30s.
2. Heavier precip moves in Friday evening and changes to wet snow as temps drop to freezing.
3. Moderate to heavy snow may develop areawide late Friday night into much of Saturday. Temps will be holding near the freezing mark so this would be a wet snow. Nice for building snowmen! 
4. Snows will taper to snow showers from west to east later Saturday into Saturday night as temps drop into the 20s.
5. A separate “clipper” system moves in late Sunday into Monday and can lay down more snow.
In looking at the overall weather charts for this storm. I am reminded of a similar setup from back in early February 1998. Now… I am NOT saying this will even come close to producing anything like that “dusting”. But, I can see some similarities in the setup. Ironically… this system has a chance of producing the most widespread heavy snow for central and eastern Kentucky since that very same system.
Again… we still have a ways to go before I can say this is a stone cold lead pipe lock to happen! The threat is to raise the awareness level to the possibility of a big time snow event around here. Don’t go stocking up on bread and milk just yet. I will tell you when and if it’s time to do just that!
The blog updates will come fast and furious over the next few days and we will crank out some live chats too. I will try to have the first one at some point this evening so check back to see when.
Have a great day and take care.
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nam and gfs both have me at 4” here in southern fayette cty. if this can go a little further west WOW
YEA!!!! I like those maps MUCH better, I was just on the edge of the snow in the previous ones! 😀
Thank you Chris Bailey!!!!!!!!
I can’t wait until Alert mode!! This is so exciting!
Chelle where you been? We were in freaksters earlier!
Gosh I’m so happy I stayed up a few min longer to see this!
Oh the possibilities that the Thursday models may throw at us…
Thanks CB for all that you do for the blog!
Wow, it looks like the Christmas storm is taking a backseat big time to this weekend.
Chris just go ahead and put us in alert mode. 🙂 I’ve already told some individuals who live on Lawson mountain in Clay county that they will be snowed in with at least 6″ of snow this weekend.
dfntly staying in town for this event!
I’m gonna be too excited to sleep tonight. LOL But now that I’ve seen your update, I’m gonna hit the sack as 5:00 A.M. comes early. Wow! Thanks for the update, Chris. I’ll be watching to see when you have the live blog.
I understand that! 🙂
I’m so glad I’ve got a 3-day weekend this weekend. Today is the last day I have to forecast this potential monster for southern WV on air, and that means I get to enjoy it this weekend!
well this morning I am going with 4-8 inches for my area.
now I like CBC by this morning runs we might be buried. and thisd storm may EVEN BE BIGGER for us after it starts!!!!
WOW!! Is Paintsville in the 4-8 range? My granddaughters are gonna love this!!!
I can just see Chris all excited running around in circles…”I get to issue a threat! I get to issue a threat” I love his excitement!!! 🙂
the CHRISTMAS STORM IS STILL IN PLAY!!
Thanks Chris for the exciting update!
Holy Cow Batman.. now even the Christmas storm is back in play with ALL snow and even more potent, I think we may have wished for more then we want!! lol .. If you LOVE snow, you will love the 6z this morning! WOW!!!
Hi all,
So all you weather gurus out there..I need some advice. I will be traveling from Norfolk VA to Lexington this weekend…originally planned for Sunday, but as the maps show, the mountains of Virginia are in the 20+ range…no way Im driving through after that. Earliest I can leave is Friday at noon…you all think that’s early enough to get home (9 hours travel time) before the meat of the storm hits and I get stuck somewhere in the middle of West Virginia?
LOL, I’m ready to build a snowman and drink hot chocolate.
yes if u leave at noon u make it IMO.
Winterstorm watches starting to pop up. 🙂
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/wwd/radnat/natrad.html
yea I been watching that, i say we get one issued by 4 this afternoon.
For the LEX area, 06Z NAM shows 2-4″…GFS shows 1-3″ on the operational runs. Eastern KY in my opinion has the potential for a significant snowstorm from this.
I agree with Chris that the overall setup on this system reminds me of the great Superstorm of February 1998. I doubt we’ll even come close to those snow totals, but the setup does look eerily similar.
You’ll be fine if you go Friday night/Saturday morning. Just be careful.
tx WXMAN for ur imput, keep it coming.
And YES even after the storm this weekend, which is looking more impressive with every run (the NAM even tries to kick up a secondary low over KY now)….the storm rolling in for Christmas Eve is still on the table!!
Just my opinion, storm looks farther west on the radar then either the NAM or GFS showed at this time, so I’m going to go with it shifted a good 50-80 miles and EKY will get slammed with a foot 😉 and LEX will get a good 4-8. Lol I wish… But doesn’t it look farther west so far?
I was lookin at the latest runs of the NAM and GFS and actually thought they looked further east only dealin us a glancing blow in east ky.
your right the 0z and 06z are further west than the 18z
I don’t think it looks further West on the radar compared to the 6z NAM. The radar does however have precip further North than the NAM at 6z was showing. Not that it means anything right now but it is something to watch for. The further North this thing goes, the higher our chances are at seeing more rain at the onset. This thing has to be perfect for it to hit us the way we want it to.
Not talking about the models being further west, I’m talking about the precip in the gulf being further west then what the models were showing.
Yeah, At this point. I am counting a northward trend as more west… Because that is essentially what it does for the storm is push it toward us and away from Virginia.. Could get interesting, to bad I have classes today.
U CANT LOOK AT RADAR AS THE SYSTEM NOT MOVING OUT YET, IT is drifting east though, but it will turn ne later on.
the positioning of precip shield now has nothing to do with thtrack ole buddy, cause Low just now getting going.
the models as ANDY said look great, NEW NAM will be out at 9am.
I think everyone is in “FORECASTED SNOW SHOCK” dealing with 10+ years of our recent trends.
We are talking about 24-48 hrs out, not 384 hrs out!! lol 😀
My 2 cents, we want it to RAIN on the onset, it really helps to get the atmosphere humidity levels higher faster then the COLD verga. All the OLD SCHOOL storms that I can remember almost always rained at first.
yep, every big snow I remember in my 35 years was rain at first switching to HEAVY WET SNOW.
Louisville getting left out again. 🙁
That brings up an interesting point. If there is any fly in the ointment here, it’s that temperatures are going to be very borderline for this event. In fact, some runs show us SEVERAL degrees above freezing on Saturday. Amounts of snow accumulation could be significantly lower if we go near 40 degrees like you see in the models.
if im seeing right the 6z nam loop of snowfall thru sunday went OFF and we are left out,lol
it the 6z loop im looking at for snowfall thru sunday. hmmmmm
ok I think somebody hack into my data base i got the model run from.lol
yea frget what i just said,
the 12Z name has a WRAPPED UP STORM A SIGHT.
DANG it STRONGER on NAM by looks of the 24 hour 12z run,
seriously the new NAM looking at hour 42 is still looking ok for several inxhes of snow, lets see what GFS brings man if we could get about 75 miles or westward trend it be SHOW TIME.
yep looking good, but it could get HUGE.
not worried bout temps once HEAVY PRECIP STARTS temps will cool down just right.
come on westward trend just a little more in next ryun.
yeah, and NWS in JKL is literally trying to RAIN on my parade down here!! saying snow could turn to rain on saturday…BLAH!!! 😛
look at that baby, man it a damn great looking storm, there going get BURIED to the east of us, i mean 2 plus feet.
What to watch out for:
A driving /steady wind mainly from the west when the rain comes. THAT will be the practical sign IF a snow storm were to hit.
That is what happened in 98, but that was an odd system. Signs are this could possibly be a mini or medium version of that system.
My EARLY first call.
Line from Covington to Bowling Green, westward — 1 to 2 inches.
From Maysville to Richmond down (including Lex Metro) — 4 to 6 inches.
From Ashland to Jackson — 8 inches
Pikeville East — up to 12 inches
the 12z NAM shows evaporational cooling taking place over southern ky, and northern tn..at the onset of the precip on this run
30 hr..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif
Rolo, you mean Virginia or Eastern Kentucky?
MAN THE NAME has BLOWN THIS LOW UP.
look at that, if NAM IS RIGHT, prettest SNOW STORM IVE SEEN in a loong time if NAM is right.
IMO the storm will COME IN A TAD FURTHER WEST TOO.
Look at the liquid precip totals for the next 54 hrs…..If most of tis falls as snow, then we are in the catbird seat with a ratio of 10 inches of snow to every 1 inch of rain am I seeing this right?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_054l.gif
ALL TOGTHER!!! WEST YOUNG MAN, WEST!!! just a tad more, im greedy, this is a MONSTER STORM and I want all i can get TIMMY!!
so what does that mean tim? Please explain
means SNOW!!BOB!!!
EVAP COOLING is upper layers down to ground temps coming down to what we need.
12z nam says “Get ready for the smackdown”
CHAR east of us but not by much, we are going to see 6 plus inches maybe more if the west trend comes in more.
best looking snow storm ive seen in over decade in this region.
Oh sorry..lol… well going by what the 12z NAM shows the evap. cooling means, if it does in fact start as rain it will QUICKLY turn to heavy wet snow, the kind that sticks to everything…powerlines,trees,if it hits it it sticks to it better than a stick up airfreshener…LOL…
OK I WILL QUIT POSTING, BUT ITS TIME!! we arew finally going to SCORE A SNOW WORTH GETTING THE KIDS OUT IN!!!
yep we are very close to going OLD SCHOOL ON THIS ONE with just the slightest wesward movement!!!WOOOOOOOOOO
ok i quit, im sorry ive posted too much. sorry
Expect about 6-9 hrs of light rain on the onset.
You gotta think the 120 snow total accum map only goes out to 120hrs and its still SNOWING! 🙂
I think the NWS is playing it safe and conservative, which I don’t blame them verses our 10+ years of trends.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
12z NAM says JACKPOT!!
noway it rains for 9 hours, if it does then i be worried.
Sorry- meant from the east- to the west (duh)
man if this model holds alot of us will be just a miss of the biggest snow in 12 years plus.
man WESTWARD!! heck 60 miles is all i want here in gunchester.
the models are back to the snowstorm for CHristmas eve, Christmas day and the day after…. gonna be alot of STATE WORKERS who arent gonna get to spend Christmas with the FAM. this yr….Our gain is their pain…unfortunately…
you folks traveling for Christmas this yr. anywhere along the eastern part of the U.S. had better think twice!!!
I going make sum CASH TOO got the truck ready toplow DRIVEWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND ALL!!!
ROLO HOODRATS WILL HAVE SOME FOOD ON TABLE THIS YEAR!!!woooooooooo
the storm is slowing down in movement as well, meaning UHH OHH..
I am on the verge of going OLD SCHOOL FOLKS!! let me drink another pot of coffee and look and the afternoon models..
John Austin, it makes me happy, too, except that it means that Sara might not make it home before it hits!
Of course, plans change, and we are not at alert level…..yet! 😉
I will be bringing my personal blog out of hibernation to comment on this storm early this afternoon… but after looking at the 12z NAM all I have to say is…. OMG!
All together now…WEST, WEST, WEST, WEST…
NO dont quit, this is what we’ve been waiting for, for over 10 yrs. now…were just getting started…LOl..
anyways us stayhome dads who are snow lovers this is better than a vacation away from it all…:):)…LOL…
WOW, Virginia is going to get pounded.
To be honest I dread this because there will likely be some power outages.. I still haven’t recovered from the 2 day outage I had last week.. Heavy wet snow = trees falling on lines..
Hey Chris!! Hi everyone!WOW!! I haven’t seen snow totals that large since my daughter was 3(98) as others have mentioned. She is 16 but is still hoping for a major storm. When will the new runs come out?
Can someone please please paste the 12z nam ….. so excited
When do u think Chris will put in a new post?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036m.gif
most of this should be falling in the form of SNOW!!
I agree. 12Z NAM says this storm goes right upshore…not out to sea. Wow. When was the last time we saw the operational NAM 36-48 hours out showing a FOOT of snowfall in eastern KY??? I would elevate this to “MILK AND BREAD” status at this point.
I can feel the excitement building on the blog just from Chris updateing to a “threat” level. We have to be careful, because if we are not, then if’when he goes to Alert mode, we will crash this thing!
Rolo, man, you need to drink a little caffine. You are too laid back about this thing! 😉 (JK my friend.)
when even Bubba gives it a definite maybe, we could well be on the ferge of tearing down the fence. Bubba, you think sleds could do it?
Anxiously awaiting the next update along with everyone else, Chris! 😀
how many times have we refreshed this page in the past oh day or so…LOL…
I think nws lmk is underdoing this for the bluegrass and bowling green areas right now 2-4 lex metro and 1-3 bwg metro look good.
christmas eve storm on both the 6z gfs and euro to our south meaning snow with that track.
Oh, this is true!
Well if it end up actually happening then hopefully that good ole’ Cumberland Parkway will be the first to be cleared 😉
ok after consulting with my TOMCAT and his little TOMCAT BALIEY I now anmd in OLD SCHOOL ALERT MODE!!
this as Bailey does will be upgraded to OLD SCHOOL WARNING BY EVENING AFTER THE NEXT MODEL RUNS!!!
as TO said, GETS UR POPCORN READY!!!
TIMMY I have refreshed over 300 times today so far.
IF I had a penny for each time.. I’d be a very RICH man!!! LOL
I 2nd this motion!! Especially folks that live on the Va & WV border!
HENRY ATT ACCU is pitiful watch hi video, he has us getting a inch or 2.lolllllllll
but he going by GFS which is not nearly as strong as NAM, so hopefully GFS comes in line later on.
bengals wr henry died. just thought some of you would want to know. a sad time for the entire bengals club and his family.
its is SAD but the guy had so many chances, then goes off on his girl, then jumps in back truck. he brought it on hisself.
Oh no, don’t quit Rolo! I love reading your thoughts…I’m glued to them sometimes like a kid is glued to the t.v. when a cartoon is on! lol
good
The infamous words of BernieMac, don’t pay attention to the snow accum maps on accuweather.com.. IF Ole Henry had us in a snowstorm, I’d be worried for rain! Their maps have to be outdated or the ones they want to play out! lol
The precip type model is showing at least a 6 hr rain event, but that might be under playing the NE wind or evaporation cooling.
Most of western/central KY juice is going to come from the clipper, but the southern storm is gonna feed it more, just how long it rains is gonna effect our accumulations. I still feel that the NWS is under achieving comparing to the 12z nam. It’s much more COLDER & WETTER! 🙂
IF we get more of a westerly trend, our totals will go thru the roof!
I just saw that myself.. May God bless his family & friends. That is really sad to hear, he was a REAL good WR!
Thank you, Rolo. That’s great!
REMEMBER BOYS!! IM WATCHING, AND CHECKING THE NAUGHTY AND NICE LIST!
If that 12z Run of the GFS says what the NAM is now saying…HERE WE GO! Lets prove Henry at Accuweather wrong! lol
(I love Henry, he’s just not putting the snow where I want it to be this time)
this looks like a good a chance as we’ll get for snow around here, NOW TYPICALLY when these things come out of the gulf they ALWAYS trend northwest enough to give us a cold rain. as of now we all see some heavy snow it looks like BUT a 50 mile west trend (which happens almost everytime) would put many of us in heaven!!!!!!!!! i think nws playing it conservative is smart, given the past 12 years of huge busts i would not be issuing any advisories or accumulations until after tonights 18z runs if they still hold true.
Really sad situation. And btw we don’t really have the details. It could have been the fiancee’s fault.
I’m not blaming her just saying it’s a tragedy and lets not blame him.
12z run of GFS says noway ky…:( it shifted east…no snow, its over…goodbye.DOOR SLAMS!!!…
he.he..he…he…..BAD JOKE!! J/K…but it did shift a bit further east with the deep moisture that comes into ky..
chris’s little tweeter says WINTER STORM THREAT CONTINUES!!!…so stay tuned for another excited episode of “””””” AS THE WINTER STORM THREAT CONTINUES “”””” !!!!
LOL…CHRIS’S LITTLE TWEETER..LOL..YOU GOTTA ADMIT THATS HILLARIOUS!!!
O.K…so I drank Rolo’s 2nd, and 3rd pot of coffee!!!…lol..lol….
We know that eastern and central Kentucky is going to take a hit. How about the Louisville area? Are we on the outside looking in?