Good afternoon gang. I am planning on a much bigger update later this afternoon or early evening but I did want to drop by to show you how the GFS is coming around to what we have been saying for a while… that our pattern is likely to put snow on the ground this weekend into early next week.
There is also a notable westward shift to the main low across the deep south and southeast for late Friday into Saturday. The GFS is actually bringing snow from this low into southeastern Kentucky. If that trend continues… this will be a much bigger threat for several inches of snow in the south and east. The closer that low gets with the system diving in from the northwest… the greater the chance everyone gets a nice snowfall. As is… the GFS is saying everybody gets a snowfall Saturday with southeastern Ky having a shot at a few or more inches. It is also coming around to the clipper idea for late Sunday into Monday and that is likely to bring a swath of accumulating snows to the state. It is a robust little system that can overachieve. Here is the GFS snow total from Friday through early Monday…
That is showing a widespread 2″-4″ during this time with southeastern Kentucky getting 5″. Again… that is what the model is saying… NOT ME. ![]()
More coming up later… I told you this would be fun!! Take care.
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Got my fingers crossed!
Hey Chris: Just wanted to thank you for this site and the community of weather lovers you have assembled. I appreciate your hard work and hours and your expertise and the input of guys like WxMan, Rolo, Bubba, Shane, Tim and on and on. Thank you.
Chris, if this is what the gfs is saying, then what are you saying????
me too!!!…. 5″ would be nice to go with the 3″ I had back at the beginning of the month…:)
Check this out from Bastardi:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=57669329001&title=Widespread%20White%20Christmas%20on%20the%20Table!
here is a CLOSE-UP of the snowfall map that chris showed above…
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
The system on Christmas Eve is looking less likely to dump snow on us…but that’s 8 days away. Let’s focus on the weekend for now. And YES even the GFS is giving more strength to the weekend system!
WHOA!!!!!!! The weather channel is acutally forcasting SNOW here on CHRISTMAS!!!!!! We had better watch
out!!!! π π π π π
Hey Wxm,
Is there anyway you can post the snow map for the weekdn storm? Would it come in friday or saturday?
1″ for Somerset, London, Corbin, Monticello…BOOOO!!!….Can you go ahead and paint some yellow in our area for our viewing pleasure Tim?..lol
You know what that means, Chelle!! We might get our Christmas wish after all! LOL! π
Dashing through the snow, in a one horse open sleigh (but take blankets, as it is going to be cold!)….
HOpe it gets here, but I am like Michael S…we want more than one inch in the Somerset area, too….but…this is Wednesday. I am tempering my excitement with a dose of reality, just so I don’t get disappointed…
Don’t get me wrong, I am NOT disputing Chris’ thoughts, but he DID say that was the GFS model saying that, and NOT him!!! π
well chris what are you saying? lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_066s.gif
Notice how if you draw an imaginary line from the center of the low directly toward Iowa you see precip. all along that line? That’s the trough of low pressure setting up behind the low. That is forecast to fetch moisture off the ocean and bring it into KY while the temp. is right at freezing. That means a good shot at snow here, esp. if these features are under-done in the modeling.
18z NAM coming out…looking more west!
HELLO NAM!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif
Hello SNOW!! π
See what the 18z GFS has.. I’m starting to get excited more then TIM! lol π
Me too!! I might go to the store and get 3 months supply of Milk and Bread..LOL
I am in LOVE with the NAM!!!!
LOL…well you got more the last time so maybe it will happen with this one as well…or we can hope anyways…lol…
Hey Guys!!
Can you weather wizards tell me what that shows? LOL
OH LAWD!!! they’re looking for Jim Cantore in there back yards if it snows..:P
18z isn’t out yet but if it goes west then this will be exciting. we just need a 40-50 mile northward movement for central ky to get some heavy snows
DA’MAN is DA’NAM…lol…its went and spit out a foot of snow for east ky. this weekend…wow..Chris says looking more interesting!!!!…I don’t even own a snow shovel…LOL..but guess what? WHO CARES!!!…LOL…
18z NAM just came out and it shows a decent amount of precip in Kentucky with a good amount in Southeastern KY. This is just one of many models..but it shows some potential for sure.
Hey when does that model come out? I am so excited!!!!
I don’t own a snow shovel either Tim. I sold it in a yard sale a few years ago. I figured I’d never need one again and it was always in my way in the garage..lol
What about us in the Louisville area? Don’t leave us hanging.
I was expecting the system next week to be the main player. Perhaps CB is waiting until tonight to talk about it.
If that pans out, you wont be worrying about 1″ of snow for A LOOOONG TIME my friend… that run of the NAM is showing several inches for east ky.!!!
snow miser is workin on that my friend…:)
The NWS office in Wilmington, OH (ILN) has a long-term discussion that most of you will “agree” with. Here are the highlights:
16.12Z/16.00Z BUFKIT COBB DATA FROM NCEP MODELS /GFS AND
NAM-WRF/ SHOWING A PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON
SATURDAY…ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
CURRENTLY EXPECTED…AS OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK…BUT PROLONGED. MOVED
SNOW CHANCES HIGHER ON SATURDAY…BUT FEEL WE COULD GO MUCH HIGHER
AS THE SIGNAL INCREASES/STABILIZES.
and…
SPREAD BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS BLOSSOMS INTO
MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS ERN TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND OVERALL SYNOPTICS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MOISTURE-LADEN
WINTER SYSTEM TO TREK FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST BEYOND
DAY 7. MANY MODELS RUNS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME FORM OF
THIS…SO IT SHOULD TURN WARMER AND POTENTIALLY MESSY TOWARD THE
HOLIDAY.
I am sure there could be contention with the “warmer” comment but the rest looks to be inline with what will “likely” happen. π
ok fresh pot of coffee, got my bread ready for the birds,
yep the ole westward trend is OUR FRIEND for once in over a decade,
thisa storm going to suprise sum people this weekend,
and next WEEK ROLO is still aboard the BASTARDI SNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWW TRAINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!
COLD AIR DIGGING IN SAYS NO LAKE CUTTER BOYS AND GIRLS!!
get the slieghs ready TIMMY!!!
NOW you know C.B. likes keeping us hangin right on the end of a thread…lol…would’nt be no fun any other way…I think a few of us are going into withdrawl syndrome here…LOL…:):)
sled – CHECK! , coffee – CHECK!! , Bread – CHECK!!!, LAP-TOP – CHECK,CHECK,CHECK,CHECK!!!!!!!!….
C,mon Chris the man baily lets get a first call for snow fall and a update please!!!!!
NWS…JKL…saying for my area, starting as rain friday, turning to snow Friday night, then SNOW right thru the forecast period until NEXT WED.!!! that oughta put ya in the MOOD!!!! FOR SOME CHRISTMAS LUV!!!!!!…LOL…LOL…
Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Friday Night: A slight chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Monday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.
Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Wednesday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
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JKL has a write up about the weekend. Here is a small clip from it
OVERALL…POTENTIAL EXISTS TO ACCUMULATE SOME DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUMP INTO EXACT TOTALS JUST
YET AND WILL MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THIS
TIME PERIOD DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS A HEADLINE OR TWO SEEMS
POSSIBLE
How funny,,,you beat me to it, I was getting ready to copy and paste the same thing…LOL…
18z GFS rolling off the presses…lets see how many feet it says we’re gonna get!!!..lol
18z GFS is trending more west…its not as aggressive as the NAM …but hey…a west trend is a west trend
this is looking better and better with each run for sat.
UH-OH…its got Mitch’s attention…lol…where you been all day, give us some input my friend!!
YOU KNOW IT TIM!!!!!!!! π π π π
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