Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by with a few evening thoughts on the overall weather pattern as we are about to enter into what can become a very harsh wintry period for much of the country… including here in good old K-Y!
1. The GFS is now a different GFS. The model officially switched over today to the Parallel run that had been going for the past couple of months. This happens as the “old” GFS was finally starting to see the weekend storm along the east coast. The “new” GFS has been less than good in my observation over the past month, yet the boys and girls at NCEP decided it was the way to go. Whatever floats their boat… but it is missing the boat on the east coast storm for the weekend. I would not rely much on this model right now. Hopefully it will get in line with everything else soon.
2. The other models, especially the European and Japanese, continue to develop a big time low pressure along the east coast this weekend. Both models have a weakness extending back into the Ohio Valley that allows for snow to develop on Saturday. I think this is the way to go as of right now. That means we can easily put snow on the ground this Saturday. If we can get a little more interaction between the weakness over us and the east coast storm… that could be interesting. ![]()
3. Snow showers and flurries should continue into Sunday as we await a pretty stout clipper that is progged to move in on Monday. The European and Japanese are leading the charge with this one as well and are actually showing a good snowfall around here.
4. Temps this weekend into early next week will be COLD! Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
5. I am watching the days around Christmas for a southern stream system that will try to develop into a storm. This has really got my attention to be honest! ![]()
6. Overall… the chance for a white Christmas around here is MUCH higher than normal!!! Take that grinch!!!!! ![]()
I will have a full update tonight so check back. Take care.
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SHOW ME THE MONEY…! er, SNOW..!!!
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from the way things look it does seem like snowcover of some type seems quite possible this year for Christmas!
I’m ready to get this snowstorm started already!!!!!…I’m tired of the 7 days away storm, or the 300 hr. mega storm that never happens….LETS ROLL WITH IT ALREADY…SOMEBODY GONNA HAVE TO GIVE THE SNOW MISER A HARD NUDGE!!!!!…LOL..
If there were any to show, I’d be glad to… LOL! Just rain – and we all know what that looks like. 😉
Take a deep breath, relax…and wait till NEXT WEEK. 😉
NWS out of Wilmington, NC is latching on to the idea of a low developing off the coast now. There’s even some mention of ice/snow there, which is rare. Take that for what it’s worth…which probably isn’t much! LOL!
Looks like North Carolina is the bullseye at the moment.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
we need about a 200 mile westerly trend here.. maybe the clipper can phase with it! 😉
WOW !!! now thats an impressive looking stretch of weather ahead…:)
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Monday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
a chance of snow 5 days in a row !!!…WAKE UP SNOW MISER..YOUR ON!!!
here is a close up of bernie’s from above…
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MRX
hmmm…this map is showing more snow back to the west, than the one bernie is showing…
Maybe a westerly trend if that map Tim posted is newer.. I feel that at one time this storm was heading out to sea? I’m just saying..
Tim.. do you ever sleep?? Do you need an invitation to the weather model anonymous rehab center too?? LOL
My gf keeps saying.. you just checked it like 10 minutes ago, it hasn’t changed since then!!! I’m like it might’ve (me..knowing the model runs don’t come out for 6 hrs later!!) lol
LOL…we need to start that rehab center soon…LOL…:)
My wife knows I’m too far gone to save. 🙂
Anyone seeing any flurries in their neck of the woods?
I wish Chris would move back to Lexington so I would know when he says it is going to snow around here that he means here in Central KY and not 130 miles to the east.
I agree with CB. His outlook is Bubba approved:)
As if that even matters;)
I like the way you think.
First meeting in session at Freaksters…though I’m not too sure how annonymous it is! LOL! 😉
FYI…That map updates at 00z and 12z hours but there is usually at least a six hour lag on that graphic from wxcaster. The time stamp is up there ya just have to look really close.
Wx, glad to know that its more than just me. My husband has gotten to where he just shakes his head…..(but he always takes a sneak peek at the blog himself…usually while at work.) 😉
Bubba, if YOU think that Chris’ outlook is closer to on the mark, we might be getting ready to tear down that fence sometime soon!
I am looking forward to the next post! And, Bernie and Tim, better make sure that rehab center is co-ed! 😀
no i wish, i am not very picky snow flurries i am more than willing to take!
Oh, the weather outside is frightful … but the Cats are so delightful … All the others already know … 10 and 0, 10 and 0, 10 and 0!… Oh, they don’t show signs of stopping … and the fans are really hopping … getting ready for the next big show …. 10 and… 0 … 10 and 0… 10 and 0! ♪♪ GO CATS!!! [KEEP IT GOING!!]
Chas! See! The last few years NC has had more snow thant us!
As long as I have CB, Bubba and Rolo all on board with potential…thats all I need to keep my hope going! 🙂
Anybody know if the 00z has had any westerly shifts in the weekend storm or not?? Any phasing with the clipper diving in from the northwest?
Me too MikeM!! Maybe someday when he’s offered the head guy job!! We can hope
some phasing is likely east of us still though some snow Sat is a good bet maybe around an inch.
Too funny ‘Chelle! Now we just need to put that dance and mouth to elf yourself with Cb’s face!
the gfs now shows the late sunday clipper based on a track I see now from the upper midwest to the southeast across the ky/tenn line most of us could get an inch or two.
I love the looks of the long range model, but we all know how things can work out. I’m more interested in the snowfall potential this weekend. The NWS in Jackson and Lou are advertising accumulations in east central and eastern Ky for Sat and Sat night. Do any of you guys (WXman, Mitch,Shane and anyone else) see a potential for a broad area of 1-3″? Maybe an advisory type snowfall coming up.
hey Chris, that was an excellent posting done by you.