Good Tuesday everyone. If you are a lover of cold and snow… the pattern for the rest of December is right up your alley and it is coming at a perfect time as we had into the Holidays. The crashing Indices I have posting here on the blog over the past few weeks have been signaling this all along. As a matter of fact… they have been going to the extreme and the weather may follow suit over the next several weeks.
Let’s get the short term out of the way…
Today will see temps fall from the 40s early today into the 30s by afternoon. A scattered rain shower can end as a few flurries this afternoon.
Wednesday looks cold with temps upper teens to low 20s to start and low and mid 30s for highs. Thursday will be another chilly day with similar lows and temps nearing 40 for highs. This brings us to the weekend and what is going to be the potential for some snow around here.
Many of the models are converging on a big time east coast low pressure that rides northward. It comes close enough to throw snow back toward a disturbance in place over us for Saturday into Sunday. You can see that very nicely on the European Model…
You can see one heck of a blast of Arctic Air pouring in behind the departing storm for early next week. That would also be accompanied by some snow.
How do the other models look for the weekend system? Here is the Canadian Model…
Looks very similar to the European. The Japanese Model has been all over this setup for several days now and continues to do so…
Moral of the story… the weekend into early next week has a lot of potential. Even if the main storm is too far to our east… the systems diving in from the northwest are likely to lay down snow around here. How much remains to be seen, but this whole setup looks great all the way through Christmas into the New Year. The odds for a White Christmas this year are much higher than in normal years… despite what the Grinch and Heat Miser say! 
Here is what the forecast looks like…
So buckle up as we have a whole lot of cold and snow tracking ahead of us into 2010! I will have another update later today so check back. Take care.
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Thanks for the update, CB. Couldn’t sleep, so I’m checking the weather. If we get snow, maybe the Grinchly me will take a hike.
From now on, I will just post to tell you fellow bloggers when I’m planning a trip down the Mountain Parkway to Lexingon….because that’s when you can always expect snow!
well buckle down east/se ky it might be a pre Christmas BASH on the snow side of things.
very,very interesting as if we can get a westward trend of a few miles its ON!! ok calm down rolo its still to far out to get excited.
latest runs,
the NEW GFS is showing nothing but a OTS storm.
other models are in agreement of a storm but to far east for much, but I think we get a further west movement by showtime.
now is the new GFS right or gone crazy, well we will see I guess.
see the disturbance layintg back our way is the key, so if we can get the moisture throwing back west into it then we can see some decent snowfall.
Joe Bastardi has intreresting comments about the system.
uses the words, BOMBING OUT!!!mmmmmmmm
i see you have had plenty of caffeine this morning 😉
Andy, rolo may be overloaded, but I have not had enough….yet! Just working on my second cup of java right now….We are still on the warmer side of the just passed front, as our temps have begun to fall a little, but are still in the upper 40s right now.
Chris, looks interesting. And mathteacher, one of my daughters will be travelling this weekend and next week, so I guarantee you it will do something like that!
Andy, rolo might have, but I have NOT….yet! 😉 Just working on my second cup….
Looks interesting, Chris! Waiting to see what you think on the next update! (And you, as well, rolo, Wxman, and Mitch)
We have a real good chance for some snow showers and a little on the ground. The good news is there should be some snow around, the bad news is this shuld be mainly a miss for us- in relation to the “meat” of the system itself.
Sorry, but I am getting the same sense (or lack of) in regards to ice. I mentioned last year in December that we have more potetial for ice now than snow (since ALWAYS on the fence) and we got nailed in late January.
If we continue to be the fence for all of the December events, that will not bode well for January and February. We could get some real wicked mix events this winter.
We need to get off the fence, folks.
Hey Rolo,
Can you tell me where I can find Joe Bastardi post? LOL I have just lost my mind and cant remember where to read it. I thought Accu but not for sure.
Thanks
well I hope the 6z run of the gfs is SICK!! because it just shows cold, and boring weather…no big storm chance on that particular run…now the 0z run had the CHristmas storm. If the other Models win this storm, so much for the quote,quote NEW GFS !!
at least NWS is putting it in the forecast….
.Friday Night…Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow late. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 20 percent.
Saturday Through Sunday…Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Lows in the lower 20s.
Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow. Cold. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 20 percent.
Monday…Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s.
HUGE DIFFERENCES IN CHRIS’S DAYTIME HIGH SAT…of 28*, verses NWS of upper 30’s and actually a point/click high of 41* for Barbourville.. now if this is a clipper type system I can see this kind of temp. swing for Ky..28 north and 40 south (IF) the clipper cuts through the state with and the southern parts are on the southern part of the clipper…but either way you slice it, its a big difference…I prefer chris’s 28* and snow….:)
working on my 2nd cup as well…been along night, I got one home from school today sick…:(
………..
gonna be a 5 or maybe 6 cup morning!!!
if just the clipper is all we see most of its energy will be north of us, just flurries and scattered stuff.
we need the low to east to figure in if we want any SNOW.
As soon as Chris posts something you guys shoot it down. Give it time. There r more things to worry about than snow. If it comes, it comes. Rolo and Bubba G always shoot it down, so why come on here?
Oh what a dilemma… what is a snow lover to do? I love to see the snow and want to see the return of the 70’s type snows… just not right now! We’ve got to travel to Paducah for Christmas, the presents have been sent there, even Santa has been informed to bring the children’s presents to Paducah instead of here. But a few years ago my husband had to make the Christmas trip to Paducah in that big snowstorm they had (no snow here) and it took 9 hours to make the trip. He said never again! So.. I want the snow, but I want to go home for Christmas and be with my family too. And I want my kids to have
Christmas presents on Christmas Day! So, if I can put in my order; I’d like a small, but pretty snow that sticks to everything but the roads around Christmas. Then come January, I want it to snow,snow, and snow some more! Can you arrange that Chris?
I myself think the GFS will come in agreement with the other models and these 2 saystems will indeed PHASE!! aks BOMB OUT to our east with the WICKED THROWBACK MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
sorry MICAH just noticed ur post,
I saw the Bastardi post on accuweather forums.
pretty cool place er they have threads for all the possible storms and things.
we even have a EASTERN KY thread in the per5sonal discussion board as well.
just click on the community tab and go to forums and go to current weather united states.
I dont think anyone can argue with that…if you think about it..lol..we all want snow for Christmas but at least 90% or maybe more are on the road to Grandma’s house or family/friends in general…SOOO what happens if we get a CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM for Christmas???? There could be alot disappointed kids, and GRANDMA’s…:) BUt hey the odds of that happening around here are STACKED AGAINST US…lol…O.K. Am I trying to jinx us????…hmmm I’m kinda right there with ya faye, we are having CHristmas at my mother in laws on Christmas morning, and santa has his orders to go there as well…BUT MY journey is only 5 miles away..but if a crippling snowstorm is on the ground 5 miles or 500 is about the same…..CONFUSED YET?? I THINK I AM…:)
You ask “so why come on here?” As a daily reader, I would like to throw out my two cents on your comment.
They come on here because Rolo and Bubba G have been posting regulars on Chris’s blogs for ages and there are those of us who LOOK for their posts and ENJOY their comments! Never mind that they both are very good at this! And, you can’t question their record, either. Isn’t Bubba still at 100% accuracy or something close?
Chris has never been one to just ask that we take his words and then give him nothing but atta boy’s! Chris has created the best weather DISCUSSION blog around so that we can do just that – discuss – and we ALL are blessed to be able to come and comment, as long as we keep within the rules!
I love seeing their names on here! Just like I love seeing so many others who post daily – I won’t list them because I don’t want to risk leaving anyone out. But since you mentioned those two specifically, I will as well. Rolo and Bubba, post away!
And you too, Geez, but please don’t regard thoughtful discussion as being negative when it doesn’t exactly match Chris’s thoughts word for word. Life IS all about difference of opinions!
Merry CHRISTmas, Everyone!
I think it will snow sometime soon. Isn’t that a good forcast? Its as good as I have heard or seen on here! SO, get ready, it will snow soon. Soon is relative though.
i for one love snow, but when they start going on about snow when it’s a week or more away i don’t get excited about it.weather a week away never pans out.
I like ALL the posts on here, but I agree with Geez to a point as well..
The REAL forecaster on here is Chris, I think that Geez meant that soon as Chris posts, they doubt his forecast and make their own forecast?
As far as BubbaCast and Rolo, they are good debaters and pretty accurate when it comes to rain, but I can forecast rain EVERYTIME and be 95%-100% accurate, but when it comes to SNOW, nobody knows when the COLD & JUICE get together? IF somebody did, we wouldn’t need any models! 😉
I love the look of the 12z NAM today. Forget clipper mania, let’s wrap up a southern low coming up from the gulf up the eastern seaboard.
Still waiting for the 12z Euro to make further comment on the situation…but the potential for this weekend and next week continues to look fun.
If you just read the GFS verbatim, we have what Chris calls Clipper Mania next week (which gives us a white Christmas) and then we have a massive all out snow storm leading up to the new decade 2010.
BTW…the “new” GFS is now operational it seems. So if you view the GFS on the Internet, the “new” one is what you are looking at now. MJ can correct me if I’m wrong.
Any changes on what the models are showing?
Snow of any depth around Christmas will be greatly appreciated.
I’M NOT WEARING PANTS!!!
I’m headed to NC for Christmas this year, which means the odds of a White Christmas here just went up dramatically! 😉
DAMN SKIPPY, WHO WANTS A CLIPPER when u can get a BOMB OUT LOW moving ro our east…
the GFS now on board, as it was showing thwe storm moving out to sea.
THANKS CHAS!!!…WE’LL BE SURE TO SEND YOU LOTS OF PICS OF US IN SNOW UP TO OUR KNEE-CAPS!!!…LOL…LOL…
given the pattern though it could very well easily be the other way around too…lol..
LOL..LOL..:)…yeah who wants turkey sandwiches when you can have the WHOLE BIRD!!!!!…LOL….
OH YES THEY CALL HIM THE STREAK !!!…FASTEST THANG ON TWO FEET!!!!…I HOLLORED OVER DAR TO ETHEL,,,,I SAID..DONT LOOK ETHEL!!!IT WAS TOO LATE,,,SHE’D ALREADY BEEN MOONED…..:):):)
Too bad this is ONLY eye candy 🙂
12z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_324m.gif
Hey! 😉
I have posted snow amounts and also warned about the ice storm chance in December and early January while most were talking big snow. Based on the trends of the systems and our fence riding in KY. I kept warning: Ice, ice baby.. duh-duh-duh-du-du-duuuh-du!
Still, I do not give a detailed forecast- aint’ got the models or the CB skills- nor the time, meteorology training, brains, discipline, integrity, chart skills…. where was I???
As I have posted many times in the past:
1. I take the composite of forecasts (average)
2. Update based on the actual directional trend of the system
3. Throw in heapin’ portions of Bubba luv:)
It just became the same old song and dance, so I stated I would only post an outlook if a significant event. Not seen one yet, but like posting in the winter with all the posters here:)
As far as next week, CB has good reason to be optimistic and has pointed out why. Doubt meter is 10% for some snow, but still up at 50% for much on the ground (1″ or more).
Still better than last year!
BTW, I thought you and I were bro’s since both coming from “The Village” 😉
Seriously though, it seems colder outside due to the wind. Brrrrr! I wore a light jacket:(
I don’t think it’d be too likely that I’d see snow where I’m headed since the yearly average there is less than 2″ but it has been exactly 20 years since that area picked up over 15″ of snow (1989). Anything could happen I guess… The forecasters in Wilmington are predicting near record lows for Christmas so we shall see.. LOL.
LOL! 🙂
Gotta love that BubbaCast! Now when you mention measurable snow, you all better beat me to the bread and milk, its gonna be a doozy for sure!! or cows flyin!!
WELL 12z run of gfs has found the storm, FINALLY! and it is giving the carolina’s a smack-down snowstorm…but only a glancing blow to se.ky… it is showing at least a chance of snow every day from the 22-26th… and then as bernie showed already the classic GFS 300 hr. dream storm that pulls the artic circle down behind it relocating the north pole over KY.!!!!…LOL..looks like something outta the 2012 movie…
Tim, Rolo, Bubba, MikeyP, and Bernie….You guys are cracking me up! I am getting Christmas joy just laughing at the antics!
I want to go on record right now s saying that it WILL snow…whenever it gets good and ready to. I like the way Chris thinks, and I am always rooting for his forecast thoughts. However, bubba’s uncanny knack for being spot on is nothing to ignore, either.
So, me thinks I am just going to read on, McDuff, and see what develops! 😉
Chas…I lived in NC for the blizzare of 93! It was like Christmas all over for all the NC natives. Don’t count it just yet. There may be a surprise for you!
National Weather Service out of Jackson is giving snow from early Saturday through Monday…
They’ve been pretty accurate…so we’ll see.
It looks like the 12z run of the GFS has finally found the weekend storm and it is giving the carolina’s a smack-down snowstorm…but only a glancing blow to se.ky… it is showing at least a chance of snow every day from the 22-26th… and then as bernie showed already the classic GFS 300 hr. dream storm that pulls the artic circle down behind it relocating the north pole over KY.!!!!…LOL..looks like something outta the 2012 movie…
Unless I’m missing something, the NAM shows not one single drop of precip. anywhere within 500 miles of KY through 84 hours, and gives no hope of that low going up the coast. ??? Go Tops!
Looks as if the 12z run of the GFS has found the weekend storm. It is giving the carolinas a smackdown snowstorm, and only a glancing blow to e.ky…BUT we all know the bias the OLD gfs had with storms to far south and east…lets see how the 18z run looks…if it dont loose it completely again….and as bernie showed the notorious 300 hr. mega storm is back, funny how that storm is always 300 hrs….away..and drags the whole artic circle down with it..relocating the north pole over the Ohio Valley…looks like something outta the 2012 movie..
it also is showing snow at least flying in the air the whole week of Christmas…
Could you provide a link please?
Im sure shane was looking at GFS wxman,
Yeah, I think I need to see this…LOL!
Rolo was right, had a brain fart and meant GFS.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_0_prec_84.gif
OH. 12Z trended slightly more westward with the low and slightly wetter. If that trend continues in the 18Z run, we’ll really have something to be excited about.
GUYS Mitch Tim Wxman Andy Shane Bernie Chris ANYONE of our talented people Rolo Vinny Bubba do any of you see snow or rain for Thursday this week? My Father in Law died yesterday and the Funeral is Thursday I was wondering what to expect here in eastern Ky? I guess if very cold pants would be acceptable at a funeral.I hope its okay to ask you all to please keep us in your prayers its been a rough year my mom in May and now my Father in law,well i guess its part of life.I will look forward this weekend to finally collapsing and watching snow.
Okay so the 12z GFS and Euro are both in now *Thank you Rolo for the correction earlier… working since 2:30 in the morning can make a guy a little backwards sometimes!* let’s talk about what’s going on and what I like about what I’m seeing right now.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f96.gif This is the 12z Euro and I want you to notice a few things. First the surface low is off the coast of the Carolina’s… not a great postion… I’d like to see it a bit more west but not horrible either. Second is that we have plenty of moisture over top of KY with temperatures below 0 at 850mb. Notice the 540 line is also to our south and east which means we are go for snow if we get any precip to fall. Last I want you to look at all that red over KY in the top right map. That is a nice upper level low right on top of us which could provide the triggering mechanism we need for some snow. So even if the surface low completely misses us I still think the possibility is there for snow on Saturday. That being said I suspect that low will trend back to the west like the low from 2 weeks ago did and come in farther west than the models were showing. I’m waiting to see the Euro’s 200 mb chart which hasn’t came down on the site I normally use but looking at Penn State’s stuff, I think it’s going to phase the jets and send that low up the coast, instead of out to sea like the GFS.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f96.gif
The thing I like about the 12z GFS is that it has the storm, it’s sending it through the south and that it’s looking pretty impressive, but doesn’t want to send it up the coast. I’m calling shenanigans on this because we haven’t had a storm in a while that cut across dixie only to go out to sea. Most of the storms this fall have went up the eastern coast. I personally blame the track out to sea on the GFS not handling the phasing of the jets very well and putting to much weight on the northern branch of the jet. With the upper level trough digging in the mid west and Ohio Valley, the jets should head back up the coast instead of going to sea like the GFS (And NAM) is showing right now. I will be surprised if this doesn’t change in the next 24 hours and the storm track starts to head more up the coast. That’s the big reason I got excited for the 12z GFS… the storm is there, it’s just not going how I think it should go given what we’ve seen this year.
Just my thoughts on the matter.
Crystal, sorry about your lost. It should be dry Thursday with temperatures in the upper 30’s in the afternoon, maybe around 40 if we can get enough sunshine.
Shane are you a weather forecaster? I may have missed that post down the line somewhere?
Very interesting post and I’ve been wondering how they are calling for Sat/Sun snow when they ain’t that much juice for the clipper to work with and where its coming from?
Yeap, I work for a small TV Station in central WV as morning meteorologist, but I’m originally from London KY, and graduated from WKU’s weather program in May of 2008.
You ever gonna get the blog up and going again? I miss the local area forecast for SE KY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV_gK3Zz608&NR=1
LMK is even mentioning snow for Saturday/Saturday Night with the possibility of accumulation..interesting
BOTH MODELS INDICATE A LNWV TROF APPROACHING AND MOVG THRU OUR FA
SAT NGT FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR MON AND TUE.
AT THE SFC…BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROF/WEAK LOW ACRS WKY…MOVG ESE INTO EKY/ETN SAT EVE AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES SUN. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND PLACEMENT OF
DEEP MOISTURE…SAT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR SOME MEASURABLE
SNOW…THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S…THERE WOULD BE SOME
MELTING. AT SOME POINT LATE SAT INTO SAT EVE…TEMPS WOULD LIKELY
FALL ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS COULD END UP BEING AN ADVISORY EVENT…THOUGH IT IS 4
DAYS AWAY AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES. THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE 00Z AND 12Z EURO RUNS WITH THE 00Z RUN SHOWING A
WORST CASE SCENARIO OF PAINTING ABOUT A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL…WITH
LESSER ACCUMS…ACRS OUR FA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL GET EVEN COLDER
MON AND TUE AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES AND WE GO TO NW FLOW
WITH SUBSEQUENT CLIPPERS. AT THIS POINT…WILL JUST MENTION FLURRIES
THIS FAR OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
have you been asleep bernie…LOL….
Looking at 15 day forecast are about useless but they are fun to watch this time of the yr… my local accu. 15 forecast is calling for 2.2″ of snow sat and sat. night…then rain on Christmas eve, and Freezing rain CHristmas day turning to snow, and snow on sat. and sun. after Christmas….needless to say its gonna be an active couple of weeks coming up, regardless if its snow,rain,ice..its gonna be fun to watch….
Yeah lets hope its snow fun! GFS has us in the deep freeze from now until we close out 2009…hopefully we’ll get some snow during this stretch!
CB has stong arguements for reasons for potential this winter. If CB pulls the trigger and words equal to “fence” or “if” are not in it- bread, milk, and other staples would be wise:)
Ice is my main concern if we fence ride the December systems. Listen to me now and believe me later;)
One Bubba-bit: The snow deprived should see at least one good snow this winter (+5″).
Cold has been under-estimated by most, so far this season. Cold may get the upper hand next week- another reason for CB’s optimism;)
My doubt meter is now at 40%. Was 80%, then 50% now 40%. We could see more than 1″ on the ground next week:)
Stock for snow moving up:)
you should do stand up
JKL is even mentioning snow for the weekend as well in their AFD
LONG TERM…/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…UPDATED
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH TROUGHINESS…YIELDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. DETAILS ON THE
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIFFICULT…SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY…WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SWINGING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW…WITH PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST IF THE QPF HOLDS. STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE HIGHS…AND CLOSE FOR THE LOWS WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE…MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SNOW FLYING AT TIMES
ahhh…if only !!!….The Weather Channel Blizzard of 1993
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44cHhoU0mwc
Good seeing ya today Tim
and here is a recap of blizzard of 1996
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq1UNLolnd8&NR=1
WOW!!! 2 ft…literally, poor guy..or not??
i loved that snow
This is what I’d like to see…Cantore and thundersnow! 😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eQZMLdzUgU
Patty, I was in NC in 93 also, but the area I’m from received little to nothing during the blizzard. One of the downfalls, or perks – depending on how you look at it – of living along the beach.
Anything can happen, but I’m definitely not going to get my hopes up when the odds are clearly not in my favor….LOL!
You just wanna see cantore!!!…LOL…
As true as that might be, I want to see thundersnow just as much. 😉
LOL! Tim .. yeppers! I get up before sunrise.. can’t wait for that 6z run.. probably got it worse then CB! LOL!! 😀
Is there a model AAA rehab for junkies?? 😉
Thought this was funny.. reminds me of “The Christmas Story” F-U-D-G-E
http://www.sphere.com/world/article/al-gore-fudges-numbers-at-climate-change-summit-in-copenhagen/19281919?icid=main|htmlws-main-n|dl1|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sphere.com%2Fworld%2Farticle%2Fal-gore-fudges-numbers-at-climate-change-summit-in-copenhagen%2F19281919%0D%0A
well bubba indeed the cold has been direguarded by everyone,
but ole CBC has been on it, and as late as yesterday them NUTCASES AT NWS saying HO HUM,HO HUM,
I for once would likwe to see Chris THE LEGEND Baliey CLAUS get his props from them yahoos.
he been spot on so far this winter when alot have been DEAD WRONG,
yep CBC is the MAN!!!
Hello…. Hello….
Guys & gals… I hear talk of SNOW, *new GFS, bombing out….
I’ll be honest, I’ve looked at the 18z runs and I don’t see much snow…
Someone please enlighten me with a map or model or something that will show me otherwise…
Thank you….
I was just looking at the models through the next two weeks. Not sure what we will end up with but they look very wild. Very cold and very stormy. Anyone else noticing this?
There is no snow on the models, just rain….can’t enlighten someone about something they can already look and see for themselves. 😉
Yes, Plz…someone enlighten us with some models showing some snow!
CHris has an update!!!