Good Monday gang and welcome to a brand spanking new work week. We are quickly counting down the days to Christmas which is coming up next week. Wow… that is hard to believe! I am working on my gift list and will post it soon so you guys will know what to get me. 
I am working on getting a gift for all of you… and I think you know what that is!!
Let’s get to the weather to see how the gift giving business is going.
Here is the breakdown…
– Today looks like the mildest day for a long while as temps spike up into the mid 50s under partly cloudy skies. Enjoy it because it changes Tuesday.
– Tuesday will see a cold front move through the region and will feature high temps coming in the pre dawn hours. Temps will fall from the 40s when you head into work… to the 30s for the drive home. A few rain showers will be around in the morning with a few flurries by later in the day. Winds will be rather gusty again too.
– Wednesday will be the coldest day with highs low and mid 30s with lows in the upper teens and low 20s.
– Thursday will be a calm day with lows in the 20s and highs back in the normal low to mid 40s.
– A clipper will be rolling across the region later Friday into the weekend. This will bring much colder weather in here for the weekend and at some point or another… snow. The question becomes… how does it snow? Will it be from a big storm in the eastern US or will it come from disturbances dropping in from the northwest? That is something to be tackled as the week goes on.
– As mentioned here more than a week ago… I think the chances for a white Christmas are MUCH higher than normal around here and for much of the country!! This is a game on pattern that is trying it’s best to lock in right on into early 2010!!!! 
Why do I say this? Well… the big 4 indicies I look at continue to head toward a very cold and stormy look…
I know those charts don’t mean much to you… but it’s pretty amazing to see all 4 showing the same exact thing and even more amazing to see them at an extreme level! Sit back and enjoy the ride because it is going to be fun!!!!
More updates later today so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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Thanks Chris… I think I can go to bed and sleep now with a report such as this one and have sweet dreams of snow.
Chris
I hope your right. Lots of doubters here, with good reason. We almost got our big one last year. We had 1 “decent” event (ice storm and 4 inches of snow on top of that) then a good clipper shortly afterwards (I think that was 3.5 inches) I remember it looked like a white out outside…Let’s hope we get at least one BIG snow this year. Who knows, with those indicies, he sounds like he knows what he’s talking about! I have no clue what they mean
When those indicies line up the way they are, the potential for a monster Eastern US snow storm is on the playing field. We just need everything to come together right, but lets say the odds of us seeing a good snow are way up as long as the indicies hold what they are showing right now.
33 cool degrees this morning
Thanks Chris for the updates..
Let’s see if we can get new results and stop the old trends, so BubbaCast model can be updated for a change. 😉
Chris, if a good snowstorm comes to pass for Christmas, that would be the best present we could get! But, if it is even during the Christmas week period, and the ground is white for Christmas, I will take that, too!
Either way, we are certainly going to have the cold in place, for sure!
Looking forward to the next post. Make the Monday a GREAT day! (I am checking my list for the second time already!) 😉
I agree with Bernie, and MarkLex…hope those charts mean good things for us in the snow department! ( And Mark, I don’t understand them, either, but if Chris says they are good, I will take it! ;))
Bubba points:
1. If your post is more than a few words, always copy the post before submitting. That way, you can simply paste the post if you get the infamous “moderation” note;)
2. The stars are aligned for some big December weather and CB is on to it. The big issue is what side of the fence we are on. Somebody in the east half of the US is probably going to get smacked with some snow powwa’!
3. MarkLex, true about the trend and 98, but we were still in a decades long snow tend then, so that does not count;) I think this is the longest gap ever for not getting a “big snow” in a large section of KY- dome central.
4. We do not want another ice event this winter, since trees have not had time to recover and there are many poles that were made weaker from the last one. I see more of a chance than not that we could see another ice event before March. If you recall, I mentioned this about this time last year too.
5. What was out last white Christmas? I remember one in 1989 and maybe 1990. About 20 years was last one? I am talking accumulating snow- not flurries.
6. Coffeelady- keep the faith:)
7. My doubt level for next week has dropped since a few days ago. From a scale of 1 to 10, it was an 8. I am now down to a 5:)
Woo hoo! I can just hear Santa’s big ole foot steps as he tromps up onto our porches and stomps the snow off those big black boots! HO HO HO! Merry Christmas. Our gift of nature’s beauty all wrapped in white! Now that will be a beautiful Christmas!
Thanks for the update, Chris!
From NWS…JKL…wed-sun…
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DRY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY… WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
THEN CARRY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA…
WHILE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES. TEMPS WERE LOWERED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT WARMING OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT MOST… IF
NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP THAT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND WOULD BE SNOW. WHILE
POPS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD… THE PATTERN FITS
ONE THAT WOULD AT LEAST OFFER A CHANCE OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM CLIPPERS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE 14/00Z
ECMWF ALSO OFFERS THE TANTALIZING SOLUTION OF A MORE ROBUST SNOW
EVENT FROM A WELL DEVELOPED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTING BY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW TO BITE
ENTIRELY ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION HOWEVER.
hmmm….. TANTALIZING!!!!…thats like me and a HUGE BUCKET OF KFC. is over there >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>0<< and I never get to eat it !!...:(...:)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture
Holy mother of snow storm Batman… check out hour 168 off the latest Euro. Cold in place, A low off the coast with an upper low on top of us, and moisture too boot! Let the games begin… let’s see if this bad boy holds up on coming runs.
i like the feeling of where the pattern is going, clippers can be fun, even the 1-3” snows are great for this time of year, and like we have seen in the past clippers can deliever up to 6 or 8 inches like in feb 2007
feb 2009 of this year parts of NE ky saw 8” of snow from a clipper. 4” in my backyard, i’ll take a clipper anyday over a southern stream storm with snow/rain/ice/sleet mix that results in a headache more so than a nice snowfall
Thanks Chris! I’m ready! I always loved games! Especially sledding, Snow forts and those infamous snowball battles! Of course I’m too old for those games now. But I remember the day!!
I believe we had a white Christmas in 1993…
The next best thing to a big one would be several back-to-back clipper events giving us a big one-type snow cover!
Here is AFD from LMK about the weekend
LONG TERM (TUESDAY – SUNDAY)…
CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND TODAY`S COLD FRONT AND SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH ONLY LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO OUR WEST HOWEVER…THE
COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER…BUT
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK…HOWEVER…ALL MODELS START TO DEEPEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA…BUT WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
SPECIFICS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY AT THIS TIME THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN U.S. BUT WITH THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
AIR IN DOUBT BASED ON THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW…IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN JUST HOW COLD THIS AIR WILL BE. AT THIS
TIME…HOWEVER…IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING FOR THE RECORD
BOOKS.
WITH LITTLE OR NO RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEK…CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
BE LIMITED. SO WHILE IT DOES APPEAR SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE…LET ALONE
PROVIDE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS.
I went opposite thinking of you. I was really doubtful for a December snow til last few days ago. Mine has went from 0 to about a 5 on a scale of 1-10, after the 20th.
I really like this pattern the models have started to pick up on.. We don’t want ALL artic air, I rather be on the fence then 20s and dry.
sorry i hate to break it to lmk even though climo wise we are not favored for a white xmas attempting to call the weather from 1.5 weeks out is a bad idea
WOW. The GFS doesn’t show it..but the “new” GFS which goes operational tomorrow does! Check out the 162-186 hour range on the 12Z run. Snow and/or ICE storm for all of Kentucky on Monday the 21st! Gotta’ watch this for a trend..
I am on the same page. Mine is a “Doubt” meter. I doubted snow would fall by 80%, but now down to 50%. Coin flipper level now;)
Déjà vu, since I remember this stuff coming up all of the sudden in late January. In fact, last year at this same time I posted concerns about ice being more likely than snow for us and posted not to be surprised about it earlier today.
That would be one sucky gift:(
If the fence is over KY for a big system next week, watch out! If a big winter storm does take place with the cold air around, we do NOT want to be the fence- unless cold rain.
CB will give us a heads up if he even thinks ice is a chance.
Yes, we had about 6 inches in Lexington on Christmas Day, 1993. We also had a couple of one or two inchers on Christmas Eve around 1999-2000.
You’re correct about the 1999 Christmas eve morning snow. That was my Dad’s last Christmas with us and he loved the snow at Christmas. That’s one I’ll NEVER forget.
I agree BubbaG! I’ve seen all the ice I’d like to see myself!
yeah old GFS is rolling it through here on the 228-264 time frame (24-25th)
228…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228m.gif
240…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_240m.gif
252…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_252m.gif
that would be snow north…mess in the south at least its still on the radar, and the possibility is still there for MAYBE some snow for CHRISTMAS…
me too !! if I want Ice I’ll go to the FRIDGE and get it…:)
Wow it has made it to 64 degrees in campbellsville so far today…our temperature around here have more swings than mlb…lol hopefully the big one is on its way since the old gfs isn’t picking up on anything.
Knox County, KY
Barbourville 3 E 63º
2:00 pm EST
Dewpoint: 47ºF
Humidity: 56%
Precipitation: 0.00 in. (SINCE 12AM)
Wind: WSW at 9 mph
WHAT AN AWESOME DAY TO BE OUTSIDE DOING ABOUT ANYTHING!!!…accept SNOWBALL FIGHTING!!!!…LOL…:)
Bubba, brother, I AM keeping the faith! Just to see your doubt meter go down a tiny bit give me some hope!
Tim, 64 here right now, with the sun trying to peek through the clouds, and succeeding at the moment….
Wxman, let us hope that the NEW GFS is the correct one, and that the fence gets torn down over KY, so that we can get in on the snow love, too…..ALL of us! What a gift that would be!
No, I am not getting over excited. I just hope that the models stay on track. IT’s time to tell the Heat Mizer….”Mr. Heat (and Cold) Mizer…tear down that fence!!! (My apologies to former President Reagan) 😉
I myself say whatever will be will be..
its 60 degrees yere at the moment.
Well, Rolo, of course, whatever will be, will be….but it is still fun to speculate….. 😉
Yeah but we gotta’ hope it’s snow and not freezing rain. The new GFS depiction of Monday looks very similar to the textbook over-running event we had early in the year with ice everywhere.
What a great day in Southcentral KY. Somerset airport reporting 66* as of 3:30 and the thermometer at my house has 67* and its sunny…nice weather for mid December…but I’d rather have a foot of snow and 25*..lol
I remember that Christmas far too well….my mother loved snow. She died on Nov. 21, 1999. She always said it was wrong not to have a white Christmas and that year we did. I said she bumped someone out of the snow position job. Ha. It made me feel better anyway.
Folks,
Look at the signs- extremes. Today was significantly warmer than expected. Could be an early sign of the opposite for next week.
I forgot about 93 and 99. My wife’s parents were visiting from England for the 93 one. I thought that was in 89. Lack of consistant snows have made me lose historic track;)
most likely true, the mos can’t handle advection( transport of warm or cold air) very well which is what most temps forecasts are based off. Thought the raw temp numbers were also a degree or two to low today.
looked a snow or rain deal with mostly snow for most of us. But i could see an overruning event for the region early to mid next week, hopefully before christmas travel.
some of the models like 12z nogaps and jma are still trying to phase our late week clipper with low pressure in the southeast, something still to watch. This would increase the chance for snow in this timeframe.
Mitch, I am for anything that increases our chances of snowfall! Especailly near to Christmas time!
It will be good to get the next update, as Chris will probably flesh out his thoughts a little more, although it is still a few days away.
Our local forecast is calling for highs in the 50s on Thursday.
Chris has an update up.