Good Thursday folks. Today is shaping up to be a much colder day than we have had over the past few days as old man winter begins to impact the weather around here. This is the start of a fairly wintry period that should take up much of the month of December. As a matter of fact… the system we have been talking about for the weekend continues to try to turn into a bigger deal for the eastern half of the country. The bigger the deal… the better the shot it brings some snow around here.
Let’s talk about today as the cold air will be filtering in. We will wake up to temps in the upper 30s and low 40s and will hold there, or even drop some, through the day. Some leftover moisture will be with us as rain and snow showers will be scattered about the area. You can track those here…
Some leftover flurries will be likely tonight into early Friday as temps remain cold. Highs Friday will stay in the 30s after we start the day with temps in the 20s.
That brings us to our weekend system. This is something we first started tracking back on Monday as the models were just sniffing it out. Up until this point… they had been stringing out a broad area of low pressure from the gulf to just off the southeast coast and actually jumping all that into a lead low well off the east coast. What is happening, though, is we are getting enough energy hanging back that the trough axis is neutral to slightly negatively tilted. This allows for a deeper low pressure center farther south and west from what the models had been thinking. Here is the GFS…
Saturday Afternoon
GFS Precip Type
Here is what the GFS shows for snowfall..
The NAM is very similar…
Saturday Evening
NAM Snowfall
The Canadian Model looks to have an even stronger low that is closer to the coast. It appears to throw moisture back a little farther west than either the GFS or NAM. Let’s see what trends the models bring us today as it wont take much of a western budge to bring more flakes to our part of the world.
Looking ahead…
Sunday looks dry and cold with temps in the 30s for highs again after a cold start in the upper teens and low 20s.
A weak system works in Monday and this may create some light wintry precip.
A much bigger storm will move through here or just to our south and east by later Tuesday into Wednesday with rain and/or snow. This storm will bring down the coldest air of the season by the middle and end of next week! This air will be of arctic origin so it could get darn cold before all is said and done. Get used to it folks! 
I will have another update later today so check back. Have a great day and take care.
Select Page
I see snow flurries
saw couple as well big A!!
i have a feeling this whole saturday system yea its gunna end up farther west then all maps are saying.
I must of blinked to much, cause I missed the Flurry!…lol..
well a STRONGER STORM showing up,
I also think the track is going tro be further inland IMO once it get togther, more of a middle of road track betwwen yesterday low and what model are forcasting as of now for this low.
so HOPE IS THERE for us here in SE KY.
well the NWS in JKL has upped the snow chances for my area (BARBOURVILLE)..check it out……
………………
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
yesterday, that 50% was a 30% of rain/snow mix…so we might actually get a flurry or two…lol…I wont hold my breath just yet though…even though I think this last storm did trend a bit farther west than models showed a couple days out..so, if thats the trend, who knows the snow system may give a western JOG as well…
*** YOU GOTTA CHECK THIS OUT ***
Winter storm watches for most of Louisiana for snow!!!, all the way to the GULF COAST!!…. 🙁
………………..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/
and I would say this is just the beginning of many more watches that will be posted as the day goes on, just not for us…:(
I’m thinking us folks in central KY are gonna be outta luck on this system.
yea parts of alabama looking at 4 plus inches as well,
Yeah we are certainly not going to be seeing snow here anytime soon. Sorry folks. On a positive note…there appears to be a good chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night/Wednesday. December looks to be the stormiest month we’ve had in a long while based on thunder.
A flurry or two, Tim? HAHA, yeah, that’s probably about the way it will turn out. 😉
NAM coming in futher west,
the model runs your speaking of 00z cmc/06z gfs remove any arctic air in front of the mid week low to rapidly and tracking the low into the lakes these same model runs you speak of create a snowstorm for San Fransisco and Las Vegas. The 06z gfs you saw with thunderstorms for us just glanced over has snow for san deigo if it was to happen. This is due to the model digging the trough to extremes in the west causing a stronger eastern ridge which will not be there. remember your own advice from yesterday, don’t take the models as end all be all of the weather and you have to look at why the model shows something.
Huh? What are you looking at? Check out the 06Z run of the GFS and “new” GFS about 144 hours out. There is NOTHING in the western U.S. whatsoever except a digging trough that fuels the storm in the OH Valley. VERY realistic looking solution actually, and I think it’s likely to play out that way. I didn’t say anything about looking at why the model shows something. I said don’t bite on the day 15 snowstorms because GFS frequently is too aggressive with cold/snow in the long range.
Lets see that nam can someone post it please?
yeah nam pull deeper moisture into east ky, while the gfs takes it east a bit…THE MODEL WAR IS ON!!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif
NWS in Morristown TN. is saying 3-5″ in the east Tn. mnts…and generally 1″ down in the low valleys of east tn..
…………
wonder where SwVafan is??? I figured this would have his attention over there.
Now we’ve already whittled it back to “leftover flurries”. Not that I’m crying foul, but I have noticed this pattern constantly.
I find it interesting that the “new” GFS is more aggressive with the system coming in Wednesday than the “old” GFS is. If the “new” GFS were to be correct, we’d be looking at very Wintry weather next Wednesday night and Thursday.
Next Wed/Thur is going to be really interesting.. The same makings as Blizzard ’93 .. low from the west. Low from the north .. low from the south and bombs out in Ky.. probably ALL rain for us, but somebody is going to get clobbered in snow near us!!
The systems for this week and next week are all same song and dance for central KY. We need one good hit to prove the dome has been removed.
The next two weeks will be rough for some, but is anyone seeing anything that suggest were are not one of the fences for the systems again?
Again, we need a good hit to provide an actual result. Results are more important than forecasts with great potential for snow.
CB’s job must get rough for this area. My prediction is that when we get hit, most will shrug the warning off due to previous history. Unless and ice storm warning- then panic will rage in the streets!
uhh oohh,
The following stat I find interesting..this is rainfall stat for lexington this past november, the rank, the record and date of the record all according to the NWS in Louisville hompage
Lexington 0.96″ 5th 0.45″ 1976
Thanks for the update, Chris! Temp has dropped here from 41 to 37, but it is now hovering between 37-39. I will wager that the wind chills are pretty good, too, as we still have a little bit of a breeze.
Weekend storm might just bring us some flakes to see after all, looking at the maps! Hope so. But if not, it’s early yet! 😉
Have a great day, all!
WEll, in inject a little holiday cheer into the discussion I say….”Let is Snow, Let Is Snow, Let It Snow!
Can someone post some of the maps for next week’s systme? It would be much appreciated!!! Thanks
Anyone else getting some light snow right now?
Those ice warnings are enough to put a panic in anybody including me. As far as I’m concerned that “I” word is a bad one! LOL!
Yea! for you! I’m happy when any snow lover sees flakes! Even if it’s not me!
I’m sure that the blog picks up during the winter months.
Ok…gonna admit this…I love snow…there I said it.
Now bring it on.
We need those lows next week to get together and dump on us.
Does anyone know the date of the first measurable snow for SE Ky last year?
Jackson recorded 0.1″ of snow on 11/16/08.
I thought that was pretty weak so I went a little further and noted that 1.1″ was reported on 11/20/08. Looks like there was a 2″ snow on the 20th-21st last November.
lol the 7 day snowstorm
In the DEEP south, don’t the put up winter storm watches/warning if little snow is expected? Say, if we were expecting 1-3 here, that would be a winter weather advisory, whereas the gulf coast, that would be a winter storm warning? I could be wrong. Not sure what their criteria is down there.
I wonder if back home in western NC (Transylvania county) will get any snow. I know we had our share of disappointments growing up. I was looking back and there were years we recorded ZERO snow for the season, while Lexington had 20+ inches. Wish I had been living here back then
I guess I was right!
A winter storm watch for up to an INCH of snow?
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOWFALL DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT…ENDING NEAR DAWN.
I think it is because it is so rare down there that people just freak out. They have absolutely no means to deal with anything on the roads. When I live on the Miss. Gulf Coast in the late 80’s it started snowing at lunchtime one day. Just big wet, flakes, and I knew it would not amount to anything. Still, the schools were let out and businesses closed. A lot of people wanted to get home to be with their kids the first time their kids saw snow.
MORRISTOWN TN in on action now, as EAST TENN and smokies 3-6 inches possible.
I’m with you, Patty. All this talk of moisture being rain or snow always makes me cringe that it will be the third option – ice.
I was born and raised near Houston and I didn’t see snow until February 1973. It snowed twice that month and then never again that I can remember. So yeah, snow is a BIG deal in the South. It rarely stays below freezing during the day so any accumulations will probably quickly melt. I hope the kids have time to play.
Yep winter storm watches out for the mnts..3-6″
Smokies get snow a lot We stayed in a cabin in in between PF and Gatlinburg up in the mountains in the first week of April.
It snowed two inches and was just rain down in the down. Wild.
NWS in jkl is pretty much dismissing the threat of snow saturday with the acception of some upslope snow showers on sat…but according to them moisture from the storm itself wont make it over the mnts. into ky…thats whats in their discussion anyways…I guess we’ll see
it will not snow in kentucky.if we get anything it will be flurries.
DT over at wxrisk has a really good blog post that I tend to agree with atm. He may be going a little extreme in saying that the first half of this month is going to be a blow torch from the rockies points east but even if he is right, hopefully jan and feb and march will bring back the cold. as of now i cannot remeber a december that looks as depressing as this one when it comes to snow and cold chances.but then again up until feb 4 1998 winter was wimpy too 😀
i cant see were your seeing this. I see all kinds of snow and cold chances this month.
well, i hope i am wrong too but the cold just seems to always wimp out by the time it gets here and then we go back to 50s and sun, not a warm pattern but a mild pattern yes. i have been wrong many times in the past so if i am wrong this time i’d be very happy. i think the first rule for snow forecasting should be do not look at the gfs beyond 96 hours.
So…the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore just sent a message via Twitter…
“Heading to HOUSTON for historic SNOW event. Never has Houston had measurable snow 2 years in a row. You ask what could go wrong….Plenty.”
We here in KY know all about what could go wrong with snow events, but HOUSTON getting snow before us…??
That’s just wrong on more levels than I care to think about.
I’d rather it be mild than cold and dry. Remember those subzero days last January where we had no snow on the ground!
yep the 18 futher east, yep if we need a left turn we cant get it, but when we need a east turn yep we cant get it.
the good nerws is its going to be stormy winter IMO. that dont mean ish though as far as snow goes.
its not going be a DRY WINTER, its going to be active in the s/SE part of the country but the temps atre another story though.
so it seems more and more people are disagreeing with Chris’s thoughts on this blog why is that ?? Or maybe they are just now speaking how they feel ?
Well, if it was up to me to say….I think we are ALL getting in too big of a HURRY?! Looking back to the late 70’s via my memories, well, we didn’t get those Ginormous snowstorms until after Christmas…perhaps a wee bit before then, yes, but mainly it was during Jan/Feb when all the GOOD ones came!:)
I am not a patient person, by nature, but I am still thinking that we will certainly get our share this winter…think of the THRILL after all the waiting and anticipation of it when the BIG ONE finally hits!!!:)
I agree! That’s what I’ve been saying. I hope we get snow in Dec…But Jan/Feb..even March is when the historic snows of the past hit in this area. I’m still thinking that 13.4 inches record for most snow in 24 hours for Lexington is WRONG! Feb 98 I KNOW we had more than that in 24 hours! I was here! It was a BLAST!
nobody in a hurry, we are just frustrated and looking at the facts of storms paths and so on.
I havnt give up on a PATTERN CHANGE but the fact is nothing I see in models right now say SNOW in the forseable future.
now hoperfully we can get suprised.
the storm next week is looking like a MONMSTER but u guessed it rain,rain BLIZZARDBLIZZARDBLIZZARD for CHICAGO.
it’s not so much that i disagree with CB its just NO MODEL is trustworthy and we seem to always get 20s with sunny skies or mid 30s and rain. CB is the only weather source i take serious i know some guys in town like to play weathermen but CB has nailed events up to 10 or 12 days out without model support. he can read a pattern better than any other met in ky i know of.