Good Monday everyone and welcome to Thanksgiving week. This week will feature a big change in the overall weather pattern across the country and around here as things begin to take on a more wintry pattern. This should be the start of what is likely to become a wild and woolly December!
Before we get into it all… a reminder that the winter forecast will be online before the day is over. 
I am going to be doing it a little differently this year with more of a straight forward forecast instead of giving you a rundown of all the nuts and bolts behind the forecast like I have done in the past. That kind of stuff means very little to you guys and sometimes we get caught up in throwing out our scientific reasons to try to impress other forecasters who are reading it. Frankly… I am way past that now and you will get the forecast in great detail without all the boring mumbo jumbo!
Let’s concentrate on the weather this week as we have some big changes ahead. Here is how it looks…
– Today will feature some clouds with a scattered shower. Highs will be within a few degrees of 50.
-Tuesday will also see a very small shower threat with highs in the low and mid 50s with breezy weather.
– The changes begin to come around on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. A few showers will be likely as temps begin to come down some. This will lead us into Thanksgiving day and the threat for some rain and snow showers. This happens as a deep trough digs in across the area. The cold air coming in is marginal for snow as it is not of Arctic origin. Regardless… it’s cold enough to produce the first flakes of the season for most. Here is what the GFS looks like…
Our best threat to get a coating of snow would come early Friday morning then again Friday night. It is later in the day Friday that a weak system will be diving in from the northwest and this should enhance the snow shower action. This happens as a big low pressure area develops along the east coast and rides into New England.
You can see what I am talking about by looking at the current GFS and the future GFS. Say what? A new version of the GFS is running parallel to the current model. The “new” GFS is on schedule to take over in mid December. Here are what the GFSs are showing for Friday evening…
Current GFS
Future GFS
They pretty much look the same!
Looking farther down the road… the GFS (current) has been about as consistent as I have seen a model in what it is showing for the first week of December and that is a cold pattern that should feature a big storm.
December 1st
December 2nd
Who knows if it will work out that way!? But… winter weather lovers have got to LOVE the pattern setting up for the first half of December!
That’s it for now. Winter forecast coming later today so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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This forecast makes me happy.. There’s nothing like walking in the first snow of the season – hand in hand with someone to get a little hot chocolate.. Can’t wait!
Nice…. 🙂
Chris, my hubby is going to the UK game Saturday night. Any suggestions on how to dress? He’s thinking it will be in the 30’s for sure.
looking forward to the winter outlook, and the upcoming pattern!!!..it looks to be a loaded one indeed..
anonymous…lol..I forgot to put my name in..too early,not had the mocha yet…lol
Looking forward to the winter outlook and the snowy change myself.. It’s starting to fill in real good for this first snowfall of the year.. Be nice to live in western PA! 🙂
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
GFS still sticking to it’s guns.. Snow flurries for the Turkey weekend…MAJOR Winter storm for next week! Keep your fingers crossed!!
just heard that this could be another yr. that New Orleans gets measureable snow!!!…and the question was. has there ever been 2 yrs. in a row that N.Orleans has seen measureable snow??…I gotta feeling the deep south is gonna be the sweet spot for ALOT of winter weather this yr…I just hope its not supressed to our south..:(
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oh by the way, sometimes the NWS forecasts get on my ever loving nerves…my local forecast is calling for rain showers and near 50* on thanksgiving day with snow/rain mix thurs. night and friday night!!!…oh brother here we go again same ole same ole…and the only accum. possible will be in the HIGHEST of elevations near the VA. border….no wonder when I was tellin folks yesterday it was gonna snow on thurs. and friday they thought I was crazy!!!…LOL..well that may be true, but Chris said its gonna snow!!! DOG GONE IT !!!..LOL.. so its gonna snow!!…:) 🙂 🙂 😛
Thanks Chris! Can’t wait to read your winter weather forecast! Looks like the weekend is going to go a long way in whetting everyone’s appetite for Christmas shopping! the temps are going to make it feel like Christmas, too! WHOO HOO!!!
Wxman, lets hope it is correct! Last time we got measurable snow this early that I can remember is 76…..I would not mind a repeat of that, it’s been so long. OF course, we both know that, as usual, its still a week away! 😉
I’d like to see a dynamic cooling phenomenon set up on that low as it goes up the Appalachians like we had in ’98. One of those good old shut-down-the-state snows. Except 3 feet this time. And ZERO temps. for days immediately after the storm. That’s what I want to see. But in November…would be HARD to pull off.
really interesting it really is, the gfs has not had this storm for all four runs for the past 5 or 6 days but it has had it 2-3 runs per day and STILL says storm. this is one of those times over at the nws where they are deciding to ignore the gfs.
Gonna be a cold game. Probably upper thirties at game time. Looks dry though.
A good thing to know for the cold games: There are vestibules in the endzones where the elevators go up to the skyboxes. The vestibules are heated, so you can go in one and get warmed up. They also have TVs, so you don’t have to miss any action.
Don’t look now, but El Nino is still getting stronger, and the CPC forecast is still a dry one in the OH Valley for Winter as a whole. 🙂 😉
hmm…. that storm the first week in dec. has the entire state of ky. with 3-6″ of snow on the ground by the 8th, accumulated snowfall ratio 5:1 18z GFS for Dec.8,2009…that would be interesting to say the least now would’nt it?? probably unlikely, but would sure be nice…that would sure get you in the CHRISTmas mood…
well I as a WINTER WEATHER luver am at peace for the first time in a decade, its coming!!’
man did u see ole Susan Boyle on NBC thia morning, man they got her heavily medicated to keep here from going off deep end.
but damn she got a soothing voice though, broke record her album on AMAZON. yea I order it too for my MUM.
olo,lol i forgot my R.
id say be ready for rough weather starting next week with SNOW COVER and cold. that will hang around awhile.
u gotta love checking in all RESPECTED WEATHER GUYS that are going nuts right now with the outlook for next week and beyond.
I havnt even check on MANAIC HENRI but man I getting ready to, id say he had a cigarette by now!!lolllllll
I see 4 plus inces possibility next week for our area as it look now and with a little luck maybe more.
really exciting to just look at things right now even if we get BACK STABBED once again, but as I have said earlier this is not your little kids winter, we are going back to our winters as kids. I am 35 so that who im refering too when I say bck to our winters as kids.
ah but there main climate model the CFS has trended wetter, and the SST anomalies the last two weeks have leveled off after the burst of warm water anomalies. the Nino projections have the leveling off then a collapse during the winter.
All the models are in line for a winter storm somewhere in the region next week maybe even two with one system on the 1st and another toward the 7th. Winter is coming in as a lion big time.
I still get cold chills everytime I hear her sing “I dream a dream”!
Can’t wait to read the forcast Chris! I like that you’re just stating it straigh forward, but this is your blog and if you want to put in all the tech stuff that would be fine too. I’ve learned a lot from you and other bloggers here and know that it’s just a scratch in what is involved in long range weather forcasting.
We should see more snow this winter than the last eleven. A lot more.
The weather stars are aligned, so let us hope Mr. Snow is an astronomer- at least as a hobby 😉
As far as this week, warm air will be too much of a factor, so any snow that is in the air and tries to accumulate will probably be in higher elevation spots.
This of course could change- as it always has 😉
12Z GFS is going with a much more realistic solution now…taking both storms up the MS River valley instead of up the east coast. We’ve seen that type of pattern many times before and it wouldn’t surprise me if 12Z run verifies.
So does that mean that it will be more of a rain event?
Bubba your positive outlook is refreshing. Your long hibernation has served you well my friend. Forget the trends of the past 9 years.
12z gfs i like, it has our lakes cutter we need to get cold air in here and the gfs looks confused at 180 hours it puts a low over south georgia, now i def favor the lakes cutter because its very typical for your early season snow events but from louisiana it could take a more southerly route, the good thing is here at day 7 we are NOT in the bullseye
With the 1st storm yes I think that is much of a chance has the 6z track as that is basically the spread in emsembles at this point. However for the later storm there is no other model support for strong ridging from the 3rd to 5th over the east coast.
yep I been asking bout u BUBBA!! now all the ole GANG has checked in,
er ANDY at though, is he still kicking??
More like 11 years 😉
If the stuff likely coming this winter misses us, it would be highly “ill”ogical.
I stress the “ill” part.
Most runs were taking both storms up the east coast (including the 06Z today). 12Z now takes both storms up the MS river. It’s a totally different ballgame now if that happens. Eagerly awaiting the 18Z run….
Hi Patty from Versailles
Please explain what the difference in the two tracks would mean as far as snow for Kentucky…thanks…
Harlan co… a storm track up the miss. river would put us on the warm/rainy side, and a track up the coast or app.mnts. would mean snow/cold…hope this helps ya out. If you want snow, you always want a storm to your east or south and east…
Hi MikeM from Versailles!
Then I need it to track right up my back yard…lol.
I know that we get snow off of the Great Lakes and have some up slope, if I remember correctly. The biggest snows have arctic air combined with moisture from the Gulf…correct?
Guess what I heard???…I am hearing that the United states this yr. as a whole could set a record of widespread snowcover Christmas morning!!!!…now that would be nice now would’nt it??
Hey ROLO!!..good to see ya posting my friend.. I hope billy the goat has a nice wool blanket for all the snow we are gonna get this yr…lol.. and yeah andy is still kicking around somewhere..lol…he pops up about the time he wants to stir up wxman’s feathers…lol..lol…gotta love’m both,would’nt be the same without’m…lol..lol…
Henry M. from Accuweather is going a bit to aggressive predicting that this far out. The models are looking fun for the beginning of December now, but a lot can change between now and then… let alone the end of next month.
Hey guys!Tim good to see ya and rolo and billy the goat lol!!!!!! Bernies posting so the snow should start flying!!!!!I want snow!!!!!
Boyle County 54* drizzle at 2:30pm
Like last year if interested to read my forcast thoughts I invite you to visit http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/ .
yes that’s correct. 12z euro tracks the 1st storm through the southeast, temps are marginal though on this run.
CRYSTAL is back in town !!!…LOL…where has your traveling job had you at this summer? are you back for the winter? you better be in Pike co..or your gonna miss out on all the SNOW we are gonna get this yr..LOL…
actually I heard it from J.B. and Elliot Abrams…hmmm so ole Henry is tootin the horn as well …LOL…
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How’s things over in West Va. my friend?? I know you gotta be hysterical about this upcoming season!!!
O.K. am I the only one that has hit the site about a 100 times today with anticipation of the winter forecast…LOL…LOL…SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME !!!
Guilty as charged too! lol 🙂
Hey guys and gals, Chris has his winter forcast up now.
No Tim I have been lying low.I lost my beautiful mom in May.I am thankful I had her as long as I did and that I had a job where I could drop everything and take care of her.My sis came in from indy and helped,but I am back to the blog and ready for snow.
True friends are those who really know you but love you anyway.
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