Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend, y’all. We have absolutely gorgeous weather across the commonwealth today and this is essentially our January thaw. Whatever you wanna call it… I’ll take it. This “thaw” is a short one as winter fights back in with a series of cold fronts on the way.

Highs today will warm into the low and middle 50s for most areas on a gusty southwesterly wind. Skies will be mainly sunny, but some clouds will increase late in the day into the evening. These clouds are ahead of a cold front swinging in here early Sunday.

That front will have some rain and snow showers along and just behind it. The latest GFS is a little more enthusiastic with the snow chances across the eastern half of the state…

GFS 2This run even tries to put down a very small accumulation in the mountains late Sunday…

GFS TEMPS 3

That moves away to start the new week with better weather for Monday. That won’t hold very long as another system dives in from the northwest late Tuesday. This one will likely have a small wave of low pressure along it…

Euro

That should kick off some light snow and could be followed by an extended period of light snow and flurries for the second half of next week as cold air continues to pour in.

Another system looks to follow that up a few days later…

Euro 2

That same run of the European Model shows a very amplified pattern settling in with additional systems lined up to drop in from the northwest…

Euro 3

Can we get one of those to dig in and develop something more?  Time will tell, but those are some good looking model runs above.

Lately, I’ve been posting some of the Ensembles showing the potential for bitterly cold air to invade the country again later this month. Now some of the operational models are picking up on this. Check out some of the numbers showing up on the GFS…

GFS Temps

-40 to -45 temperatures entering the upper Midwest? Ouch! We will see how much cold can actually develop later this month and into early February, but the pattern is certainly ripe for some serious cold across the country.

I will update things later today. Enjoy your “thaw” and take care.