Good Tuesday everyone. Today is going to feel like a summer day across the state and if you’re a fan of it… you might want to go out and soak it up before some big changes move in. I will touch on these changes and will satisfy your winter sweet tooth with some thoughts on what may be coming.

Let’s break down this week before talking winter.

– Temps today will surge into the low and mid 80s for many. Winds will be rather gusty as late day clouds increase. There could be a scattered shower or storm around late today into this evening.

– Front number one moves in later tonight into early wednesday. This will touch off scattered boomers and knock our temps down some for Wednesday.

– The more important front will then push through Wednesday night and Thursday. A wave of low pressure will then move east along this front through the Tennessee Valley. Clouds and some showers will be possible.

– This front has a major shot of cold air behind it. This will likely bring an early end to the growing season across parts of the midwest. For us… this means Thursday and Friday will feature temps in the 60s for highs with lows down in the 40s for Friday and Saturday. Those can approach record values if we get everything to come together.

– The weekend looks to be pleasantly mild as temps return toward the 70s under partly sunny skies.

– The pattern looks “blocky” next week and that may produce another cool shot with some wet weather.

Track today’s weather here…

Currents







We are getting to the time of year that everyone I talk with asks about the winter ahead. This is also the time of year I begin to really focus on how the pattern is behaving locally and globally. I know a lot of people like to put out a winter forecast right now, but I am not one of them. It is way too early to get caught up in a winter forecast when we have THE most important deciding season yet to come… autumn.

I love to get a full view of how the fall is proceeding before I take the plunge with full a blown winter outlook. That doesn’t mean I don’t have some early thoughts about where we are going.

This fall and winter will be characterized by the return of La Nina. The cooling waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean will become a major player in the overall North American weather patter this winter. You can see how the anomalies have progressed over the past few years…




That was an impressive La Nina we saw this past winter. It is doubtful we will approach that level again this winter… but a weak to moderate La Nina is a good bet. The CFS Forecast model shows this healthy return of La Nina…



That is just one of many variables that will come into play. Others that I will be looking at include…

– The multi-year trend for a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). I expect both to average negative again this winter.

– The fall snowcover progression across the Northern Hemisphere.

– The sun continues to run on the quiet side… though not as quiet as the past few years.

– Recent volcanic activity. Can this actually impact the overall weather in the Northern Hemisphere?

– Matching up this year with past years that had similar weather under similar global indices and looking at how those following winters turned out.

Having told you everything I will be looking at in the coming weeks… what are my early thoughts? Here goes nothing…

– The pattern heading into fall and winter is loaded with more extreme weather across the country. Why would it stop now?

– Winter could get started quickly with the chance for an early season snowfall in November. November looks like a wild month with some early fun followed by a stretch of Indian Summer.

– Late November into December could very well be on the cold and snowy side for much of this region. Several analog years suggest this.

– I expect some brutal shots of cold into much of the country… some of which we haven’t seen in a while.

– There could then be a lengthy “halftime” for winter before we close things out strong in February.

– The early call is for temps to average below normal with snowfall and precipitation to be above normal.

Again… that is not my winter forecast as that comes out in November. This is what I am thinking right now based on my early look at the pattern and where it I think it is going this Autumn. If it doesn’t go there… my thoughts will be different when the winter forecast comes out.

There you go… some talk of winter. You guys happy now? Feel free to share your thoughts about the fall and winter ahead. I will have many more winter thoughts and seasonal forecast models to share over the next few weeks.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.