Good Tuesday, folks. As we continue to wait on the return of Old Man Winter, we get one more day of nice weather to enjoy. That means my 4 day weekend comes to an end with a perfect batting average. Now, If I could only get the forecasts to hit in that range. 😉
Temps today will be back to around the 50 degree mark in the north and east with milder stuff west and south. Winds will be very gusty ahead of a cold front sweeping in by tonight. That front looks to have rather wimpy moisture with it, but could spit out a few showers…
We’ve harped a lot on the temp forecasts being off from the models and for good reason. Something else I’m noticing is the models constantly overplaying precipitation amounts. Doesn’t matter if it’s rain or snow, the results of late aren’t even close to what the data points to.
Regardless of that… this has been a dry winter for many. I know we all get caught up in wondering where the snow is… but it’s hard to produce snow without precipitation.
Back to the weather ahead of us. Some very light snow showers or flurries will be possible behind this front over the next few days. Possible is the key word.
A storm system will develop across Texas and then roll eastward along the Gulf Coast and up the east coast later this week. The European Model continues to be the most developed and farther north and west with the track of the storm…
As you can see, the latest run brings precipitation into much of the state. We shall see how that system evolves on the models in the coming days.
A big ridge develops across the west coast this weekend and allows for a strong disturbance to drop into our region from the northwest…
That’s a pretty strong system digging in and is a setup that usually develops a healthy storm system across our part of the world. I’m really trying to JUST look at the upper levels instead of focusing on the lowest levels where the models are really struggling, right now.
I will update things later today. For now, it’s back to enjoying my final day of my extended weekend. 🙂
Take care.
The lack of precipitation is becoming worrisome. The very weak El Nino isn’t even helping bring increased storminess to the south. Guess it’s just to weak, like feeble Old Man Winter.
At least there is a seven day storm on the maps….LOL.
I wish we would have a seven day storm, not that snows for seven days straight.
Thanks Chris. Enjoy your last day off. At least it’s a pretty one. Hoping our luck changes at some point and we get one good snow. Have a great Tuesday everyone.
It’s incredibly warm again today, so I’d invite everyone to take a shovel and pull up a piece of dirt. Does it look dry to you? Radar returns constantly overplay what falls on the ground around here in Berea, much like CB calls out the models, but there have been a consistent stream of rain events as such that our ground is soggy and has remained very moist at a minimum since the fall.
Is this another KY River phenomenon where this time Fayette has been missing out during every rain event and we’ve managed to get some? It doesn’t seem like it, based on daily viewings of Mesonet and weather discussion here. In fact, the times where very heavy rain was supposed to be falling (remember the Hamburg flooding, etc.?) it was always a much lighter total here. But hey, if the snowfall differential over the years has taught us anything, it’s that all outcomes are possible.
Chris Mercer, Keeper of the Holy Figures, what say thee on the precipitation levels for our half of the Commonwealth?
In case you don’t see the Twitter feed up in the right corner, exceptionally good photo from it…
http://twitter.com/jeancloydtemple/status/557360222776614913/photo/1
CB, you should have liked Tom Petty’s The Waiting 🙂
No soup for you! 🙂
I wanted soup today 🙁 ……… 🙂
Got chicken tortilla. Delish!
I think we’re all mystified by the lack of snow this year. Bad luck of the draw, I guess.
I’m with Coffeelady-I’ll take one good snow, any snow. Oh well.
On the good side, yesterday was a nice spring tease and more today.
Thanks always, Chris.
Its matter of time the pattern will change.
If your talking pattern change winter wise time is not on our side. Fleeing fast at that.
I have heard that a mild winter = increasingly active severe weather events. Any truth to that?
Where is all this super cold air that had the look of last year’s cold the goid ole reliable models were painting last week??? That just all of a sudden disappear to?
That’s a LoL moment
I’ll take anything at this point. One good snow can justify a winter in the south. For some of us, last winter spoiled us. I just hope the second half of climo winter features a much different story than the first half. Hopefully, we’ll hear some better news from CB in the coming days. 😀
I m kinda wondering like a lot of the other comments on here ..why are the models so wrong this year? not just bc the models are bad …there has to be a reason y they are so far off compared to other winters….I haven’t heard any mets discuss it at all
Are the models sniffing a new shift, Micha Harris said the latest models for this weekend are showing a nw shift. So we shall see
That means a good chance for a rain event.
EXACTLY Andy. and NW shift is not new, that been case for a decade.
Its rare when Micah sounds more positive than Chris about snow chances?
Friday’s/Saturday sure looks interesting.. Has been trending in our favor since yesterday…More precip and Colder too..Will this be our first measurable snow???..
It has to trend another 150 miles to the NW and west to impact us here in Shepherdsville and they have done this in the past. It seems as though they go further north and west when it impacts southern Indiana, but not when they impact here. But even if it did, the temperature will be marginal, so it maybe a cold rain in Kentucky and snow closer to the actual low.
Rain maker with the system late week/weekend, 1 64 north may get tad snow/mix rest of us nothing,NATTA ZILCH.. winter as far as snow ended in November
Eastern Ky gets a wet snow if the NW shift will stop..
Stout clipper also on the heels of Friday/Saturday system..
Sadly our winters take the term, “Rinse and repeat” a little too literally.
Rinse and Repeat with a Refresh Rain!
Well, it IS refreshing 🙂 😉