Good Sunday, everyone. We have a clipper system rolling across the state later today into tonight. This will bring another round of winter weather our way that could cause some slick travel by Monday morning. It’s all part of a busy winter weather pattern that got started with our recent snowfall.
Speaking of that recent snowfall, check out this cool time lapse of the Lexington’s 5 inch snowfall…
BTW… Lexington is now above normal on snowfall for January and since November 1st. We are also slightly above where we were at this same point last year. Shows you just how quickly things can change.
Back to our clipper moving in today. This system is rolling in from northwest to southeast and should tracking right across the commonwealth. That means a period of light rain breaking out ahead of this system on gusty winds. Those winds will then usher in much colder air as the clipper passes to our east and southeast. That allows for a switch to snow to take place starting late this evening…
If that low goes just a few miles farther south than the models indicate, it would give our region a better shot at accumulating snow. As is, those maps would indicate some light sticking snow late tonight and Monday morning. With temps dropping into the 20s, slick spots may develop on area roads just in time for the morning commute.
That same system will then turn the corner and head up the east coast. It will likely turn into a monster of a storm and the term blizzard may be thrown around across the northeastern part of the country. As that storm deepens, a weak system dives into our region from the northwest and produces a band of light snow…
That’s rather light, but it could be enough to put down some minor accumulations for many Monday night and Tuesday morning.
We will likely snap back to normal for Wednesday and Thursday before another clipper dives in Thursday night and Friday. That will then set the stage for the potential of a bigger system later next weekend. More on all that and your clipper tracking tools later today.
Enjoy your Sunday and take care.
Hope the next weekend storm is great for SE KY & SW VA. I understand people’s frustrations over lack of snow, but where I’m from we average 55″ (I live essentially on the KY/VA border) and I’ve only measured 3″ all winter long, and those were from three clippers…
I just sent my daughter backup to college to Manhattan NY there going to get absolutely crushed by a potential blizzard. 1-2 feet over snow and winds in excessive of 40mph and snow rates could fall at a rate of 2-4 inches per hour.
Don’t forget the old adage: if the snow lays around, then more should be on the ground. The snow from Fri/Sat is still on in many places. While there will likely be a period of rain before this moisture changes over tonight, we should get a little snow again. I think a conservative number would be 1 inch or less. However, if things change, I’m sure the folks who do what they do will be here (Chris) to keep us informed.
Have a good day all! Red sky this morning.
Red sky this morning in Pine Knot !
I decide not to show a time lapse of Richmond’s, perhaps, two inches of snow. I didn’t want anyone to get over excited so I nixed the idea. Anyway, the two inches we had puts us at about the south of the river seasonal average for total snowfall.
Looking forward to the weak / week’s snow chances…
You’re forgetting how much snow we had October (2013) in Madison. Two events, for a total of 3 to 3.75″.
Both events had us with slightly higher results than Fayette.
I don’t know about historical averages, but we’re quite behind the same point from last winter.
Though, we had a similar snow drought from Nov. 1 to the end of January as we had this year.
Even if we continue to get a fraction of what Fayette receives, it should start to add up going forward.
Good Point. #waiting…
Still have snow on the trees n ground this morn! hoping we can add to that tonight without the rain washing it all away!
Thanks Chris. The time lapse was really cool.
Friday nights snow has got me pumped for more.
Take care all.
The snowfall may have put the numbers above average for Lexington, but I don’t think you’ll find any converts willing to accept that two days of any snow across that long a time period is an acceptable perception of “normal” or “average”.
With that in mind, let’s keep hoping the rest of the season keeps paying dividends and we can have perceptions be just as high as the snow stats. Congrats again on the accuracy of the forecast on this last event. I could tell you were pleased and you should be.
*Note – anyone who didn’t get their min amount of “coating to X in”, my apologies as I was referring to the accuracy of the results I’m aware of at this time.
That location of that time lapse looks so familiar to me. I used to live in a duplex on Camelot Drive from 2000 to 2002 and it almost looks exactly like the view out my window when I lived there.
Looks like the models are losing next weekends storm. Looked great early yesterday with big hit across all of ky. Very light hit now as it shows the big stuff just north of us
The GFS has been having it, losing it and getting it back again for the past few days. Wouldn’t get to serious about it either way until 3 or 4 days out.
as of last night
GFS had a direct hit on Kentucky
EURO had the storm going to the south and up the East Coast
GEM had the storm going to the north
only minor accumulation along the Ohio River
so if you break the odds down
we have only a 33% chance to receiving a significant snowfall
that seems about right historically.
This is the worst winter I’ve seen in recent years. Cold and no snow, then snow to my south and to my north. Awful!
still waiting on ARTIC AIR Baliey, was supposed to been here already.
I hope it NEVER arrives!
Where’s my horse racing selections Rolo? Come on man
Be careful what you wish for. February is going to be a pretty cold start to the month and may last awhile.
I have no complaints at all about the low snow totals or relative lack of true arctic air. Lower heating costs are always good. 😉
Going by Kyle MacRitchie’s MJO forecast, things look really promising for the next month or so. His forecast keeps the current impulse in the cold phases of 7, 8, and 1 almost through the entire month of February. Better to be there than in the warm phases, right?
As is par for the course though, the models seem to have lost next weekends storm. That’s not surprise given the way things work. If there is to be a storm, my guess is the track will depend on just how strong the cold air behind it is. So if the models are late in catching the depth of the cold, the track could move south again.
I’ll be watching the blocking though. If there isn’t much of a -NAO, it probably means a track that’s not at all favorable for the state. We need a track through Tennessee and up the Appalachians.
But that’s just it. I don’t think there is a track that gives the entire state snow, is there? I think if it’s up the apps, Louisville gets it and maybe western parts of the state…..If it’s east of the apps, central and eastern and maybe southern KY get it..
I mean, even in feb 98, maybe 3 or 4 days after the storm, I drove the Nashville and there was still very deep snow, but the further south I drove on BGP, the less deep the snow was, and finally reaching the border there was nothing….
I’m not sure February 1998 is the best example. That winter featured one of the strongest El Nino’s on record and the storm basically got cutoff and moved east to west. It was warm before the storm and warm after the storm.
It’s true it’s tough to get the whole state in on the action, but it happens. The January 1996 super storm was one example. I think the January 1994 storm and the January 1978 storm were also reasonable examples.
Chances of tomorrows clipper system and upcoming potential weekend storm translated into accumulating snow potential…
I-64 and north – 95%
I-64 Clays Ferry – 75%
Clays Ferry and south to Rockcastle Co.v 40%
Rockcastle Co to Knox Co – 10%
Knox Co to Bell Co – 0%
Joe Bastardi at weatherbell.com has a free long-term outlook that basically says the Ohio Valley will get it bad for a month or more beginning in about a week. Some of you already know he can be somewhat pompous and long-winded but if you can put up with that, it’s an interesting take on what Chris is already telling us. Chris, thanks again for all you do and have a great day, all.
It’s starts Super Bowl Sunday!
52 right now in Carrie of knott co
I agree CB! Cool time lapse video! Thanks to whoever shared.
Going into the last week of January and still no measurable snow in my part of the state (Knox), and that includes no snow during the November storm. Average high temps hit 50 in mid-February in this section of the state, so the next three weeks are crucial for multiple snow chances to happen. Once we start heading toward March temps start playing a big role on whether it will happen or not.