Good Tuesday to one and all and thanks for dropping by the blog. The weather eyes of the world have been on the Gulf of Mexico and a storm named Ida. This system weakened to a Tropical Storm Monday and will be moving ashore near Mobile, Alabama early Today. The big question then becomes… where does it go from there?
The models have been all over the place with the track but have now settled on bringing this storm across Georgia into the Carolinas and into the western Atlantic. This will bring a glancing blow of rains to our part of the world with southeastern Kentucky having the highest chances. As a matter of fact… their is a shot that steady rains make their way into this part of the state later today. You can follow these rains here…
We will also be watching a weak front settling southward through the region today. This will bring cooler air in here but the models disagree on when it moves in. We have the big storm that is Ida to our south and a big high pressure to our north. This will make for some very windy weather today with those winds becoming northeasterly. The GFS is faster with the cool while the NAM is a bit slower. Take a look at what the models are showing for the same exact time this afternoon…
The GFS is in the mid 50s while the NAM is in the upper 60s. The battle is on! Either way… the cool air will win out for Wednesday into Thursday as temps stay in the 50s. The rest of the forecast looks like this…
The chill will only stick around for a few days as readings surge back into the 60s for the weekend. I am seeing some issues with later Saturday into Saturday as some of the models are now trying to bring a decent front through here. That is something I will be fine tuning over the next few days. 
I will update this afternoon so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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models are that different even this close in time!! I have a feeling being a meteorologist and having to deal with that would be a pain.
Thanks CB! Looks like a classic fall pattern 🙂
Hello fellow weather heads! Sorry I did not post last night. Got side-tracked last night. I hope everyone is doing well.
I think this may finally be the year we see some good snows, but do not want to take any thunder from CB (yeah, right).
Seems the 70’s vibe is a fair fit, but I guess we wait for next week and what CB says 🙂
light rain, dreary, cool day unfolding here in down town barbourville
To go along with the warm weather, this morning’s GFS run shows a deep low and attendant negatively tilted cold front sweeping through on Thanksgiving Eve with severe weather possible.
It is Tommy :P.
The GFS was closest to the right solution on this thing, NAM was way too south with the precip shield.
Really? The next few weeks aren’t going to be “warm” overall. It’s a back and forth that will likely average out. The same GFS shows snow now for Thanksgiving. Are you going to mention that? 😉
yea WXMAN tell the whole story and not just what u wanna say.lollllllll
That’s interesting considering that the GFS doesn’t even go out to Thanksgiving day yet. 🙂 And I respectfully disagree that 50s and 60s for highs on most days isn’t warm overall. More 70 days are not out of the question.
Are you being serious? If so, come back in January when it’s still not brutal and icy and snowcovered and tell me that again. 😉
November 26th is Thanksgviving Pal and that is day 16! 😉 Again… it’s a back and forth pattern the next week. YOUR GFS is even showing flurries early next week!! Not exactly a warm pattern!! 50s are normal highs right now.
BOYS,,BOYS,,, BEHAVE….LOL….I’m gonna have to call your mama’s and let them put you all in the corner…lol…J/K…
……….
I wonder if todays weather is a indication of what happens this winter with stom tracks…I mean 30 miles today means rain to no rain and sunny to cloudy…. if this were snow it would be a couple inches in the south, flurries in central and nada up north, and a foot !!! in knoxville,tn…now that will be our luck…lol…
cloudy,rainy,foggy here in Barbourville
temp. is a cold,damp 54*…yuck..
I searched the Web for other 09-10 Winter forecasts. Almost all of them predict the belt of cold and snow will be south of us, and into the Atlantic seaboard. Strange. The interesting thing is IF that did happen, at least we’d finally see a shot at maybe one Big One. But I agree with them that the teleconnections don’t align well for cold and snow in the Ohio Valley.
Dude that only goes to 8:00 a.m. Thursday morning. It could be 55 by the time people cut Turkey. We can’t see that yet. Yes, avg. is 57 right now..any 60s would be warm. 70s would be awesome. 🙂 I’m not trying to argue just to be opposite of you. I just don’t see the evidence of any arctic air or snowstorm threat here anytime soon considering we just came off of 7 consecutive months of cold/wet weather. You know it’s going to turn around.
Just hypothetically speaking, but if the 12z run of the GFS verified for Thanksgiving morning, we be below 0 at 850 mbs, and I wouldn’t see that going to warm for the afternoon as a trough is digging in, so just going strictly on that run, I doubt it would be 55 by turkey time :P.
This month has not been handled well at all by the models, and I would be very surprised if they all the sudden started nailing forecasts 2 weeks out, they can’t even handle two days out at this point (I’m looking at you Ida.) Personally I think KY is in for a cooler and wetter winter than average. The storm track continues to have a very strong southern component and that would lead to cool for sure, the question is do we get moisture to interact with the cool air. As always time will tell.
Well one thing is for sure. IF and a big IF the overall storm track is a southern one like many Winter forecasts out there call for…that would be good news for Chris and the rest of you because at least the chances would be there for a big snow.
well i know one thing, if it were cold enough for snow today, southeast and east ky, would be DIGGING OUT!!.. if thats indicative of the southern branch storm track for this winter I say BRING IT ON BABY!!!
I think Dick Vital should have been a weather forecaster instead of a sports announcer…can you hear it now…LOOK OUT GANG!!! ITS GONNA BE SNOWIN BY THE FEET BABY !!!…..LOL…
So WX is saying that Chris is a liar.
So I gotta say, this time of year is my favorite for the blog. The differences of opinions make it fun and interesting. WXman, Shane, Mitch, and Chris….keep it up! It definitely makes for a fun read. Thanks for all that you guys do. Great blog Chris!
A gentle reminder: it’s not winter yet. Be kind and be patient.