Good Monday everyone. What a fantastic weather weekend we are coming off of! Temps around 70 under sunny skies gave us one heck of a run of Indian Summer. Those nice temps will be back with us today… but all eyes in the weather world are on the eye of Hurricane Ida down in the Gulf of Mexico. This threatens to be the first November landfalling Hurricane since 1985.
This will likely come ashore near the western part of the Florida Panhandle later tonight or Tuesday. Here is what the storm currently looks like…
Hurricane Watches and Warnings are out for a lot of the central and eastern Gulf areas. You can see the latest advisories and the updated track from the National Hurricane Center here…![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1109W5_NL_sm2+gif/044231W5_NL_sm.gif)
Where the heck does this storm go after in slams ashore? The models have been flipping and flopping like a fish out of water with Ida. They show something entirely different with each run and I am not going to even show them and to be honest… after today… it’s a flip of a coin for the rest of the week. The options are…
1. This storm gets left behind near the Gulf of Mexico and eventually weakens out later this week.
2. It comes full steam ahead and rides up the east coast of the US as a Noreaster.
3. It comes ashore and takes a hard right across Florida into the western Atlantic where is hangs around and weakens over time.
I will have more on this later today so make sure you check back. The week as a whole will turn cooler after today as temps come back down to normal readings.
The overall pattern for the next few weeks is riding on what exactly happens with this storm. Tropical systems can bully a pattern around so we will have to see what all happens this week with Ida.
One thing we can look at is the record cold October that just wrapped up. The numbers are in for the entire nation and take a look at just how cold October was…
How does this compare with Octobers from years past? Check out the graphic below…
If you are playing along at home… the official numbers for October check in as the third coldest on that list…
1) October 1925, 49.4
2) October 1976, 50.7
3) October 2009, 50.8
Hmmm… there is that year again! 1976 is everywhere. 
Will 1976 be one of the primary years I use to make the winter forecast? Enquiring minds want to know and the answer will be coming the week of November 16th as I unveil the 2009/2010 Winter Forecast!
You guys ready for it?
I will have another update later this afternoon so make sure to check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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damn place is dead CB, but ole rolo right here with ya!!
The models are still all over the place with Ida. Last night was honestly one of the hardest nights I’ve had to put a forecast together because it all hinged on what Ida does. Tonight looks to be not quite as bad, but still no cake walk forecast.
cb the 16th! i cant wait that long!!!!!!
I have awaken from my seasonal slumber….
Hmmm, CB has a strong 70’s vibe to his recent posts. I am betting the farm that he is thinking this winter may be like a 70’s winter for KY. Us 40’s and older folks know what that would mean 😉
Bubbas sounding optomistic after his hibernation.
I knew last week that Ida would be stronger than then forecast. Looks like it almost made it to shore as a cane! I think Ida stays in the southeast and does not go up the coast. It also continues to look like above avg. temps. will be the rule for November.
BubbaG! It is SO good to see you again! And Rolo, too! OH NO, that means that winter truly must almost be here! Remember, I’m the one – the ONLY one LOL! – that does not like the cold! 🙂 Seeing you two especially tells me that I am not going to be a happy camper for the next few months! LOL!
Looking forward to all the great conversations to come. 🙂
Have a good day, all!
Hi Rolo bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!
Wasn’t last November pretty warm overall too?
You’re not the only one…I prefer 90’s to snow any day of the week.
I know the models are in flip flop city but. The GFS 16 day plots show further warming and less a chance of precip. This goes from a 1-4 inch snow chance late in the period to no snow chance. That has been the trend on those plots for the last several days. Again I only reviewed one location that being KDVK 11/9 12Z run http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDVK
anyone know what the winter 1925-1926 produced around here snowise?
that oct temp map is almost the same as the oct temp pattern in 02. that is one of the reasons why 02-03 was a analog in my winter forecast.
Good to see you Crystal, Bubba, and Rolo…when you folks post, I know winter is almost here.
I’ve missed reading your posts…okay, I’m over the warm fuzzies now. 🙂
So this winter will be like 1976
earlier in that fall we had a few monster rain producers that were tropical remnants
No, this Winter will be like Summer 2004. Frequent 60s and 70s. 🙂 Unless you trust others…they are all expecting weather like they have on the Arctic Circle.
i cant wait to see you eat your words. This winter is not gonna be a 76 winter but its gonna be a colder and snowier than we have seen in a while. Wx man, your going down trust me your wrong
well Chris B. said it will be likely 1976-1977 why would he be wrong.
The 00Z 11/10 continues to show the same with some interest near thanksgiving if there was some precip.
Steelers rock! Bring on the kitty cats. And the winter!
I’m ready!
Wonder if Bubba G is thinking the same a Chris!
lol wxman you may be right but for all of our snow lovers sakes i hope your not…pattern through thanksgiving looks very mild
thats not what Chris said
Funny because I feel the same way. Can’t wait to see everybody else eat their words. It’s gonna’ get cold!!….one day!! 😉 Haters.