Good Wednesday everyone. We are now into the 4th day of November and we are already building up a negative temperature departure across the entire region. That number will grow colder over the next few days before we see some changes coming up for the second week of the month. Get set for a taste of Indian Summer!
Even with a milder week ahead of us… the pattern of next week is already showing how it will lead to it’s own demise and lead us into what may be an early start to winter later in the month. 
Let’s talk about the weather today before we get too far ahead of ourselves. A cold front will be working southeastward across the region bringing an increase in clouds and even a shower or two. Here is a regional radar for you to track any drops that fall…
It won’t be much in the way of showers and what is out there may try to hang tough into early Thursday as another disturbance crosses our part of the world from the northwest.
Temps today will be tricky. If clouds are thick… readings will easily stay well down into the 40s. A little more sun where you live would equal 50 or so. The NAM model is most aggressive with the temps while the GFS says clouds and a shower or two keep thermometers down this afternoon…
Here is how the rest of the forecast shakes out…
– Thursday could still see a shower hanging around and will be another chilly and blustery day with highs in the 40s.
– Friday begins out very cold with mid 20s then turns better with afternoon readings into the low 50s.
– Indian Summer begins this weekend! Highs will warm well into the 60s for Saturday under sunny skies. A 70 or two will be lurking for Sunday into early next week!!! Overall… this should be a nice stretch of weather.
I am already noticing the models breaking this pattern down pretty quickly as we go toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is by this time that a southern branch storm system may get cranking and bring our next threat of rains. It would also knock the temps way down.
I have been talking to some folks I work with and telling them I thought we needed to get a nice November mild spell in order to get the crazy amount of cold that continues to build in Canada to come south into the US. The milder pattern is on it’s way… now we wait and see what follows it up for the middle and end of November. Maybe something like this?
GFS November 18th
Take a look at the GFS Ensembles 11-15 day 500mb Height Anomalies…
That map probably doesn’t mean very much to many of you… but it shows the potential for a pretty darn cold pattern setting up for the eastern half of the country. You have to love seeing that blocky look showing up in Canada!!!
I will try to update later today if needed. Have a good day and take care!
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Bring on the cold!
got down to 29.9 this morning at my house
“Since when does one week signify a change in pattern? Are you suggesting that the rest of the winter will be above average, and dryer than average?” -TeacherNate Yes that’s what I’m saying. I’m not looking at one week…I’m looking at December-March as a whole. Dryer and warmer than average.
yeah, 29* with a huge frost, and precip (on radar anyways) showing up moving into the area, radar on TWC showing mixed precip moving into knox,whitley,and McCreary counties, so …look for a flurry? who knows..lol..
update from the nws on the mixed precip threat this morning.
A few sleet pellets will accompany light rain through mid-morning north of Interstate 64. This area of light precipitation will quickly scoot east across the northern Bluegrass by noon. Expect light rain to end across southern Indiana by late morning.
While it was nothing to write home about, i drove through some sleet here in Lexington this morning. It was around 9 am near alumni and tates creek.
The November avg. temp. in the LEX area is around 46° for the month. If you just look at what GFS is consistently showing lately, through the 15th we would have an avg. temp. somewhere around 53.5°. +7.5° would be VERY hard to overcome in the last two weeks of the month. We’ll see where November goes…
just got a call a little while ago about sleet mixing in in versailles, I’m sure this is the first of a few winter events I’ll miss here in Bowling Green.
Just got a report of sleet actually covering surfaces in Lawrenceburg.
Better recheck your math… no way we are +7.5 by November 15h!!
If you just average the current NWS forecast, you get a little over 54 degrees during the next 7 days Chris. That’s +9.0!! If GFS is correct and the warmth continues the following week, we could EASILY be +7 degrees above average by the 15th.
No shot! You seem to be forgetting we have to overcome one heck of a negative departure built up through this Friday. Much of the weekend and early next week will just get us back to normal. Models are already backing off the warmth by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Mitch, sorry to hear your in Bowling Green It’s has that great Met. school but winter is going to be depressing down there bigtime. Lexington area will probably double whatever snow they get.
Actually my math IS in error. Through the 15th, the AVG in LEX would be 48°. So we should only be +5.5°….not +7.5°. If you consider the last few days it would drop that AVG just slightly. My bad….
During the Superstorm of Feb. 98…Bowling Green had 8″ while Louisville had 23″ and Lexington had 18″ I believe. But hey, 8″ is nothing to scoff at! I walked to an 8:00 class from Barnes-Campbell Hall all the way to Cherry Hall in that stuff!! Uphill!
I have wanted to post resembling like tip on my blog and this gave me nice idea. Thank You!