Good Friday afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries continue to wind down and now it’s time to fully focus on our Super Bowl Sunday storm system. We’re just now getting within the 48 hour window I’ve been yapping about all week. This is the time to really concentrate on model trends.
The first set of runs during this window are showing a low tracking right over Kentucky. Here’s the GFS…
That is not a very strong low at all and the track of weaker lows have a tendency to change because it doesn’t take much to push them around. As is, the above model shows snow to rain to snow…
That would take the best snows north of the Ohio River, but would still bring the risk of accumulating snows to the entire state.
The Canadian Model has adopted the Kentucky low scenario…
That also features a weak low that would produce similar results to what the GFS shows.
It’s worth repeating… the track of those weak lows will often show up differently than modeled as we get closer. Tonight’s runs should really shed much more light on that possibility.
I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Yea what a half inch
oh boy more suspense
Thanks CB! Looks like gun still in holster and bullet still in pocket. Is what it is. It is about the seven year anniversary of the big ice storm, so mainly rain is a much better lesser evil.
🙁 don’t like that model run. Same tease as always never fails. Hope cb is right and that low will get push SE some. Smh
That would probably mean mainly mix instead of mainly rain. Not seeing much accumulating snow whatever the case for most folks.
Never know though until it happens! 🙂
If accumulating snow’s means a inch or less im not remotely interested.
Done with this winter! Common theme has been if it shows us getting a good snow a few days out just forget about it. Warms up as soon as the precip starts and we get less than an inch of wrap around. Seky was forecasted to get around 20″ this years and have only had 2 dusting that wouldn’t even total 3/4″. Ready to play some golf but it looks to stay cold and rainy. Worst winter in recent memory here in the mountains as far as snow goes 🙁
Blah, blah, blah. Cold rain, flurries, blah, blah, blah.
Same story! I have to work on sunday anyway, but it looks like many won’t have to work..enjoy, but I truly thought if we could get 8+ in. Work would be worth it…oh we ll….unless the weak low gets pushed around…right.
This weather stinks. Again, why are we talking about models for snow in advance? Please tell me! 95 if not 99 % of the time with this setup, it’s going to rain, then 1/2 in snow (if any)…
It is so funny how people act mad at CB because we aren’t getting a lot of snow.
No one is mad at CB. We’re adults (most of us anyway) and smart enough to know that he can’t control the weather. Everyone is just disgusted with this miserable winter which will undoubtedly go down in history as the worst for snow lovers, especially those of us in southern Kentucky…until next winter when it will probably be under 32 degrees most days with absolutely no moisture to work with.
I don’t think nobody is mad at him, upset at lack of snow!!!!!! Upset at potential…potential would be sometimes thing come the way you would want them..so far this year for Richmond area, potential has always been RAIN
Southern kentucky and especially Bell, Whitley and Knox won’t get more than a dusting . Rain and more Rain has been it this winter. Bell hasn’t seen a decent snow in years.
You’re absolutely right Ashly. We will end the season with less than half an inch guaranteed.
it is funny how everyone is always negative, but I remember when I was younger it was suppose to be an all rain event, but it turned into a 1/2 inch of ice and 30 inch snow event all of a sudden, and no electricity for a couple of weeks. Anything can happen!
Rodger in Dodger is about ready to throw in the towel this winter. Another near miss to the north. Models are unpredictable BUT no denying they’ve all gone north – AGAIN!
After last winter’s cold, the 7″ Rodger got in his backyard in November and all the met predictions of a cold & snowy winter, he was looking forward to some good snows. Heck, two 4″+ snows would have made him happy. But, nothing to see here – AGAIN!
Thanks to Mr Bailey for all he does! Rodger thinks he’ll now go do something he has control over. Happiness comes from within – not from getting excited about waffling weather models that are so close but yet so far!
Rodger in Dodger!
But that IS the problem. They are predictable in that they are nearly ALWAYS wrong. Since there is near absolute consistency in the misses, why doe it take a media overblown blizzard to make some talk about reviewing them (which they will probably not do).
We should know the answer- demographics. Our region is the land of begotten winter models.
forgotten. That is a humdinger of a Swype goof.
You remind me of Jimmy from Seinfeld. Jimmy talks in 3rd person. Jimmy’s happy lol
That is too funny!!
Don’t touch Jimmy
Thanks, I needed that laugh
Question? Every met that I listen to this week stated a weaker low means a more southerly track and yet this whole system shifted l00-150 miles north. If the low is weak then why the sudden shift to the north? Doesn’t make much sense unless im missing something and If I am somebody please enlighten me.
I have been wondering about the low too.
With ya
Cold air isn’t as deep or as expansive over the Plains as first thought? Would explain less resistance and a more northerly track.
Well, at least with no snow on the ground, next week won’t be as cold as it otherwise could have been. Probably no below-zero numbers.
Need a negative NAO…
WSW for a few county’s south of Indy and points north. Doesn’t that just warm the heart!?!
Calling for 6 to 9 inches of snow in the WSW, with medium to high confidence…bummer….
Typical im not at all shocked. What confuses me this is suppose to be a weak low but its going to put down 6-9 inches of snow to the north???Doesn’t seem or sound very weak. Sounds like a pretty potent low with lots of moisture. Thus the typical northerly jog of about 100-150 miles.
Question is is the data correct in first place as far as where the flow originates. Wrong data in, wrong data out 😉
I live in the Peoria, IL area. I can tell you we are under a Winter Storm Watch and they’re calling for 5-8 inches of snow with some locally higher amounts. Since moving north, we’ve only had one decent snow. So I’m a bit excited for an old KY boy.
so the Canadian model , which had been the most consistent with this storm all week , now has shifted 100 miles to the north overnight …..happy with the upslope event here last night and today though
The ole North west shift don’t ya love it!
Its the most reliable shift out there. I’ll give it that.
The winter that never started. Even if we get a decent snow some time in February, it can’t be denied that this one will go down in the record books as one of the worst ever for the number of snow chances. SEKY still waiting for its first measurable snow followin up 2013-2014 winter of less than 5 inches total.
Too many days of below normal highs and no snow made this a miserable month. Twenty three days registered below normal highs here in SEKY. Average temps will still end up close to normal though since 20 days had normal lows come in above average. This has been one crazy January. Colder than normal days and warmer than normal nights.
In my part of Richmond we are at 2 and 1/2 inches (one 2 inch snow and a few dustings on the rooftops that I guess may have added to a total of 1/2 inch) and counting. I may just put my ruler away…
Now – things could change. By change that would probably mean a shift further north and west. In my 10 years back in KY I have never seen a shift south and east from the the two day out models.
The key – NEVER count on it until it has happened. The models are just bad. I hope we don’t spend tax money on them.
Evening models could still show a southward shift, which normally happens with this scenario. But, Kentucky would need a huge shift.
Imagine that got a huge abrupt shift north by 100-150 miles but to shift the low abruptly back south that would be to much to ask. lol
Forget putting the bullet in the gun…I think I ‘m gonna throw away the shirt that has the bullet in it!
That would be a good episode! Barney forgets the bullet in his pocket and then washes it and then puts the shirt in the dryer and kapow!
I wonder when we will get the OPS cams for points up north……
Don’t want to see OPS 🙁
What’s OPS? Other People’s Snow??
Y’all get your bloomers in a wad to quick…..CB can’t stress enough to wait and see………come on folks, have a little faith!! 😉
Yes, but CB had his finger near the trigger and now has backed away. Not to mention the models support it with weather forecasts already stating it up north.
Lot of evidence in place to support have bloomers pulled up the nether regions- IMO.
CB not controlling the weather, but I’ve followed this blog long enough to know when CB is seeing something he likes and this is not it. The new trend is that if you are in the discussion four to five days out then you are in the wrong spot. Even if it does shift a little, we are not looking at a dome buster. The bar has been set pretty low with the 17 year drought we are in. We are to the point this year that anything over 1 inch is a success.
Nobody is blaming Bailey. Now I will say that most, if not all of the regional weather guys, including Bailey are gonna hear the complaints, as nearly everyone had projected a cold and snowy season. Instead we have one fluke snowfall that separates us from one of the mildest winters on record(snowfall).
Even the outlook for bitter cold is rather shaky. Looks like a period of seasonal cold readings, with not much hope on the horizon
Bailey certainly DOES NOT control the weather, he just tries to make sense of it. He tells us when there’s a possibility for us snow lovers to get some love but some seem to think he’s the one who actually delivers the snow. I’m an optimistic person and I don’t give up just because of the models. I won’t give up until the weather is here and I see it isn’t going to pan out! It is frustrating to have a snowless winter here in SE/KY but blaming the messenger is silly…
Well. It is a beautiful afternoon. I am calling it quits early, and I am going on a bike ride. All we can do is enjoy what we have. That being said, here’s hoping the models shift again. 🙂
nope. not gonna happen. and if it does, its most likely to be more the same itty bitty worthless snows. ive made it this long without snow…. bring on springtime! maybe next year the snow gods will see us worthy of a humdinger old fashioned snow storm! thanks CB for all you do! I visit this site first thing every morning and several times throughout the day!
Models have actually been very consistent in our area this Winter, If you think about. Every one has shown a decent snow 5 or 6 days away. Only to move it north inside of 3 days. We just have to not fall for the 5 or 6 day teases. I know easier said than done, when we are all snow starved.
Just the title name of this post already tells you that this is trending away. If a winter storm looked increasingly likely then there wouldn’t be any “Quick Thoughts On The Weekend.” Just reading between some lines in some posts.
And no, I am not writing off this storm.
Won’t be any different next year, or the year after that. You can thank climate change for that.
The models have been garbage all season, I wouldn’t bother acknowledging them at this point.
I suspect you are correct. Somebody mentioned in an earlier post how “something has changed with the weather” and I thought about climate change. Sure, climate and weather are different things, but a change in the climate can have unpredictable consequences.
yes, id have to agree with you on this. anyone that pays attention can see something is happening in regards to the weather / seasons. has been for a while now.
I agree Models stink, but what stinks more is the TRACKS OF THE STORMS. STINKS BIG TIME!
Welp, Brian Goode on WAVE 3 has thrown in the towel, as has Belski. If those two guys ring the bell, ya know it’s hopeless.
I’d rather CB give us some insight as to where we go from here, instead of holding on to this latest train wreck
hmmm, Chris isn’t holding on to anything. its you that’s holding on. Chris has been a straight shooter with you guys. Some of you guys will obsess for days over a snow storm if one particular model shows a kentucky snow storm 10 days away. Then will whine 8 days later when the storm takes another path… But i must say I do get a kick out of reading some of these post…lol.. but there’s always next winter.
Just stopped Richmond for gas. Heading to TN for volleyball tournament. Hope it is white here when we come back through.
Hi BubbaG!
Howdy!
I looked at the national weather service site and they have nothing but rain for us Sunday now.
What else is new!
We as a collective group of snow lovers need to just realize that all models are totally usless, regarding snow forcasts, until we’re within 24-36 hours of the event.
Every year there are 3 to 8 of these situations where the models point towards a big snow, only to fall apart. Every time the same result – rain, with a backend snow of 1/2 inch.
Bring back the days of Frank Faulkner where there were no models. 🙂
Fearless Frank Faulkner. A Legend for sure.
He vanished though, right after the, “Just a dusting, just a dusting” forecast the day of the event.
Then that night most mets were still not acknowledging it even with snow heavily coming down. Pure and futile denial.
And it snowed for solid 2 days after that. A distant memory.
I think from now on I won’t look at models until the energy is on shore.
Better yet, wait till the day of and look out the window.
Come to think of it, I’m going to give my forecast of what’s going to happen on Sunday afternoon a couple of hours before the Super Bowl kicks off. Stay tuned and I guarantee I will be 100% correct.
100% this. Unless ice, since those forecasts are almost always correct.
Same ole, same ole……………… models look good 5 days out, only to go north as it gets closer. The system will phase in Missouri and go north of Kentucky. Meaning a cold rain here, while Indianapolis gets hammered with 6 to 10 inches of snow.
We have another developing around mid week, but it will probably go south and east of here. Very depressing for us snow lovers.
So disheartening! And so sick of this weather! If its not going to dump a big snow on south central KY then I say bring on SPRING!!!!!
At least the models aligned themselves two days out, instead of 12 hours out. Enjoy your weekend and take a peek over your shoulder every now and again to see if something might be creeping down from up north.
Local met still going for 2-4 inches here in NE ky
So when is the next storm that will get our hopes up only to be dashed? You know it’s going to happen.
I’m going on record now and calling this the worst winter in a long time. The Pacific SST’s, namely in the Gulf of Alaska and the Modiki El Nino, should have given us last year on steroids. Instead, nada.
I think the big culprit that ruined things is the Atlantic. Many forecasts called for a -AO and a -NAO. Unfortunately, the SST’s in the Atlantic were conducive to a -NAO. There was cold water to the north and warm to the south. That promotes a +NAO. We needed warm water to the north and cold to the south.
I’ve thrown in the towel on winter.
We had one overachiever, well central KY did. Take that away and we are faring worse than some of the wimp winters of the late 80s. Here in southern and eastern KY there has been next to nothing, and we are easily on pace to having an historic winter in regards to little or no snowfall.
I’m 43, and have lived in different areas of KY, this takes the cake in the biggest bust of a winter
Same here in the Huntington WV area. This is typically the land snow forgot, but this year is way worse the usual. I predicted a month and half ago this would be in top 5 least snow Winters. That is still on target and doesn’t appear to be threatened in the next week.
as a lifelong resident of pike county, i can remember the biggest snow for me being april 1984 when i had 30 inches in my front yard. school was closed for over 2 weeks. i was 12 at the time. wonderful memories of winters past….
but yeah this winter is a no show. i dont look for anything significant from this winter. i do fear the spring time storms & tornado threats though.
and the low scoots harmlessly into the night west to north east along the border states up north..Yippee..
Everyone can hold on to your towels or throw them in, but you still can’t save Apollo Creed from the rest of the winter.
Ah well. I’ve been thinking about selling my little snowblower to make room in the garage for a woodchipper anyway. That’ll probably guarantee we’ll get 15″ next winter.
I want to make a big bowl of snow cream!!! C’mon snow!!!
Stronger low north, weaker low south!
We just can’t win in this snow game?
If its going to really cold after this bring us a couple inchs anywho!
Hell Bro, Clippers no longer bring a punch of snow down to this region.
and when they are caring a decent amount of moisture it is in the liquid form of rain.
Chris isn’t talking or tweeting. Can’t get to a tv to watch the weather
What can he say? Not exactly good trends from the models and much easier to post and tweet good news than bad.
Whatever the case, somebody seeded into some people’s heads outside the blog of 8″ to 10″ chance this weekend.
Grocery stores looking for a sales spike? 😉
I always chuckle when in town. If snow is in the forecast the top number is the only number people mention. Example Chris puts out a map, 1-3 inches. People in town will say, they are giving 3 inches of snow. They simply forget the 1 inch part.
Geeez,what a shock. I am looking forward to not having an early spring this year,Again!!! Not. All I have left is sarcasm left folks. Sorry. Thank you CB for all you do for us. More important things than sniw I realize,but the kid in me remains hopeful. Have a great weekend everyone
it is hard to believe that this low was able to track this far north according to Chris the low is very weak.
imagine if the low had been very strong man that sucker would have been all the way up into northern Michigan.
I was thinking deep thoughts (lol) and theorize that the waters in the Gulf are about 8 to 9 Celsius above normal.
maybe the cold air from Canada can not overtake it.
next time 7 to 8 days out I want to see that snow line running through Mobile New Orleans and Houston.
Why errbotty gottA ack liKe babeiEs n cry win dey thank it ainT gunna snow all da suddin? WhAAAAA WHAAAA WHAAaaaA.Like a bunch a LiL babies you is.Jus lEt deez modles do wut dey gunnA do n just no dat iT gunna be triLL nomatta whaT.Cris donT be maken da wether he just tellen is how it is n he da besT wethermen in da game fo sho so i no whateVer he say it gunna do is bettA den what anodda wethermen gunna say.Chill ouT n enjoy da weekend.
Do you feel better. You are so wise above your years.
You are a moron wrapped in an idiot. Where did you learn to NOT spell
NWS had Cincinnati with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation this morning – even while saying rain and snow. Now they are saying less than a half inch.
I thought it was Brian Collins who said “dusting”?
There were several.
I want to know have you ever seen the rain,lol
CCR did !
This is the first time that I can remember going this late into the winter without an event even warranting an advisory. We may of had a black ice message here in SEKY, but I don’t recall any local forecasts talking about anything more than a dusting. A winter to remember.
With all those towels being thrown in…lot of cold and bare rumps out there…somebody better get the washer running so those terrible towels are ready for the next frustrated tossers!
Some people might be waving it instead of washing it.
Thanks, Chris for setting up this blog…..where else could we go to vent and rant about this snowless winter? We are hilarious at times, myself included, and no, we don’t blame you, we’re just cranky because we want something that so far, hasn’t really happened. I believe we are going to get some good snows and soon. I have no scientific knowledge, I just know our turn is coming, and I know you will see it coming and help us get ready.
The 12z just isn’t fair..12″+ from Illinois to new york…150 miles north of ky