Good rainy Tuesday evening to one and all. I just wanted to drop by really quickly to update the Halloween weekend forecast and show u guys that my thoughts of cold coming for this weekend into early November are gaining steam in the models. 
First item up for bids is Halloween and it is not looking very good. The models are going toward a slower cold front passing through here Friday night with a secondary low pressure developing to our south and riding up along the front just to our east. This seems to be a fall trend for southern lows. This means that the rains may stick around through Halloween as colder air moves in. Here is the GFS…
Wow… it now looks like the call for a chilly Halloween may happen as temps stay in the 40s for highs. At least that is how it is looking today. You never know about tomorrow. hahaha
Behind the departing low… much colder air moves in for Sunday and Monday with both the GFS and European suggesting 40s for highs. You can see the seasonably chilly air here on the European Model…
With a northwesterly flow setting up for most of next week… we have to be watching a system diving in here later Tuesday or Wednesday that would bring some precipitation to our region to go along with more cold air. The GFS shows this coming through Tuesday while the European is a day later for Wednesday. Here is the GFS for Tuesday…
and for the precip type on the GFS…
I guess we will see!
Beyond that… the European continues to advertise something similar to what it was showing yesterday for the end of next week…
Again… I’m just sayin’!
Have a great evening and I will update tonight. Take care.
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I’m seriously considering the Magic 8-Ball and Dart Board of Forecasting to help me get the forecast together the next couple of days. All in jest but seriously, models are over the place.
At least with a slower moving front the threat of severe weather should be less. The latest NAM is holding rain off completely until Saturday.
Hmmmm…snow next Tue/Wed a possibility??! Interesting, per my last post on Sat. 10/24 @ 11:59pm…
😉
Is it correct, or is it a no-go??! We shall see. Right, Mr. Bailey?! 🙂
i-71 would be fair game for some flurries is looks like if that first map on the gfs verifies early on the 1st. i am not going to hold my breath on the snow system next tuesday, colder than normal pattern though yes i would bet on, oh and CB i caught that secondary low development part lol if we can get that during the winter winter weather fans will be in business!!! also wanted to say nws was predicting high of 68 for lex on halloween yesterday, we’ll see who ends up closer 5 days out CB or the state!
LOL… I love that Shane. Try the dart board I don’t trust those magic 8balls…lol. Have fun putting this forecast out. I’ll call the station and complain if your forecast doesn’t pan out…lol just kidding..good luck though
Well did pretty well for today’s forecast. Low off two degrees and Bingoed the High! Just hoping I can keep that up over the next week or so :P.
nws says up to 36” in foothill locations above 7k feet
http://www.cbs4denver.com/video/?id=63618@kcnc.dayport.com
I noticed that last few days that the trees around Lexington have the most beautiful colors this year. I have not seen them look this good in a long time. I had heard back in the Summer that this Fall was not going to be so pretty. Glad they were wrong!
I see that NWS in Jackson is playing their usual warm bias. Disregarding the models and going with mid to upper 60’s from Sat through Monday.
They’ve been calling mid 60’s for today since late last week, and we can see how that panned out (middle 50’s in most areas for highs).