Good Tuesday everyone. We managed to put together two excellent weather days across our part of the world and now comes the time to pay up as rains will be quickly overspreading the region today. The showers will also act to keep temps down quite a bit from where we were Sunday and Monday. This starts off a fairly active next 4 or 5 days leading up to Halloween.
Today’s showers will be developing from southwest to northeast as low pressure moves our way. This is the same system that started showing up on our radar last week and we said to watch for this to try to be a bigger rain maker than what the models were showing and that line of thinking turned out to be a good one. See… I do get some things right! 
You can track the rains through the state right here…
Temps today will spike toward 60 in a few areas before the rains move in… but those will quickly fall into the low and mid 50s as the drops begin to fall. Rains will be most widespread this evening into tonight with some locally heavy downpours possible leading to what should be a good half inch or more of totals for a lot of people.
Wednesday will start wet but a drying trend will rapidly work from west to east during the day. Highs will recover nicely with some low 60s showing up by late in the day.
Here is your complete 5 day forecast…
Many areas will be holding trick or treat Thursday evening and the weather looks great for the ghosts and goblins making their rounds. Highs will warm into the 60s as a milder breeze sets in under a partly sunny sky.
A strong cold front will rapidly move our way late Friday into Friday night. Clouds and winds will increase and so to will our temps. Most areas should hit 70 or a little better depending on the amount of sunshine. A line of showers and storms will come racing through here Friday evening into early Saturday morning and there is a shot that some of these could be on the strong side. We will keep an eye on that as always.
Halloween looks to start with some showers that quickly move away by the afternoon leaving us with a partly cloudy sky. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the 50s and temps falling into the 40s for trick or treaters that evening.
A seasonably chilly pattern will then move in for the first few days of November as we wait and see what happens with big time cold air developing in Canada. Winter fans have to be encouraged to see the polar vortex developing in Canada over the next week. That basically means the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is sitting on our side of the north pole. Any buckle in the jet stream, ala the European from Monday, will bring in some very cold air into the lower 48! 
Something else winter lovers have to like seeing is the amount of snow that is forecast to fall in North America over the next 5 days…
Now that is impressive! How would u guys like to be in Colorado this week? That map only shows a good one to two feet of snow there.
I will have another update later today so check back. We are getting into the time of year where you can start to expect multiple updates from me each day.
Have a good Tuesday and take care.
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I want to apologize to MJ for my previous post. I’m a little short when it comes to dealing with NWS Met’s from dealings in college with students wanting to work for the NWS vs students that wanted to work broadcast. I know not all NWS Met’s are about bashing broadcast guys but, past experience have left me a bit over cautious.
I will say this, I reserve the right to question anyone’s forecast, my own more so than anyone’s, but isn’t part of being a good forecast questioning every part of a forecast, and what could possibly go wrong with it?
Shane, apology accepted. In my 14 years of professional forecasting, I’ve had run ins with other pro mets that bashed the media and their co-works. That is just not right.
However, I was not explicitly bashing Chris in this case. I simply disagreed with the Euro solution given the ensembles. If I am a troublemaker for disagreeing with majority, so be it. However, I will back up my thoughts with data and reasoning on why I think the forecast could go a different way. I’m entitled to have an opinion just like everyone else on this board.
I totally agree with the questioning of forecasts. Professional meteorologists should be reading to defend their forecasts. That is how we learn in this trade.
When I was at WKU, the PROFESSORS fought amongst each other over the broadcast vs. “real” meteorology topic! It was crazy!
I visit this site mostly in the winter but hardly post anything. This is the time of year I begin looking every day. Concerning all the post yesterday about model variance and different opinions i think thats the glory of this site for Chris. This is the most detailed or put it in common sense website on the internet especially for kentucky where common people can come and read what Chris feels like he should forecast. I hear people say all forecasters are liars because it never does exactly what they say….well i can tell you most likely it never will do exactly what any forecaster thinks because weather isn’t controlled by man its controlled by God….thats why it is called a FORECAST….someones prediction…Men look at man made models on man made computers in man made offices to predict what God will do. Chris does a great job throwing out information and showing models and what he feels what the weather is going to do based on the models….if the models change the forecast changes. If chris feels like its gonna be a cold winter then he can say that everyday on his blog and if you think its gonna be warm then get you a blog and write it on your blog. I love the site Chris and will continue to look at it.
heck if u all and even the non professional weather guys like myself cant disgagree with each other then u never get better.
that is what makes weather so fun, discussing forcast from others and pointing out problems u might have with them and stuff.
I respect all u all and am proud to say it.
I myself see our first snowfall around thanksgiving, give or take 3 days on either side.
I love this site when it turns into the WWF! (Weather Weenie Fights)!!
rocky mtn high colorado! even the plains are going to get socked!!!
I was watching Storm Chasers the other night, and Joel comes walking in and Reed says, “Are you going out with us today?” And Joel says “No, I actually do forecasting, not wishcasting”. And I thought, you know, that’s a good way to put it. I keep it real around here, and that’s why I’m not popular. But I still love you all.
Rocky Mountains blizzards just make the beer taste better!
WXman….folks ask for your opinion a lot too. You’re appreciated too and don’t you forget it.
Gee Chris, that snowfall map looks impresive, for sure! I hope we can see something like that for REAL here in our neck of the woods at some point this winter! IN the short term though, it is looking like we need to get out the mega umbrellas, cause we are gonna need ’em today!
Looking forward to the next update!
Well, let me say that human nature is to get a little “testy” sometimes. You weather guys are great. I love to read your discussions and old Rolo provides zest and flavor. Thanks to Chris for the obvious hard work here.
It’s looking more and more like the entire day Saturday will be wet and nasty. 🙁 That’s a shame…we just can’t get a beautiful 1st half to a weekend anymore.
Hmmm… new GFS reverting back to what most of the models were showing several days ago. Cold and wet Halloween followed by some good cold through next week. Told ya to not trust the models. I will have a new post coming up in a while.
snow makes everything better!!! and its incredible out there 1” of liquid can make alot of snow here maybe 10-12” but there 1” liquid you can get crazy rain to snowfall ratios!
the gfs is like a woman its saying one thing one minute and then something totally and extremely different the next!!! my heart can’t take it CB!!!!
It’s only holding temps. down some on that run because it keeps the rain around longer. I still wouldn’t call that cold. But wet..yeah. 🙁 Keep in mind we are in the 4-6 day GFS window now, so this run can be thrown out easily.
no, wxman your cool i enjoy reading your posts
That’s the BEST post I’ve seen here in the 3 or so yrs. I’ve been here. Thanks, Jonathan, for putting it into proper perspective. I am more in the LMK area, but I watch/listen/read everyone’s thoughts,predictions,forecasts, and sometimes, just plain BS..lol! ;), but I DO have to say that Mr. Bailey, by far, has the better track record when it comes to accuracy.
btw-there’s a guy that posts on John Belski’s blog, Marcus Barnes-most ppl think he’s full of it…well, after going back and looking @ his 4casts myself, I would have to say he is indeed ‘full of it’…full of a lot of fantastic forecasting knowledge that is! If my math is correct (and I was piss-poor in math, but my hubby was not), ol’ Marcus had something like an 83% accuracy rate all last winter on into this Fall.Pretty amazing.
You’re all rite in my book, Wxman! 🙂
I watch “Storm Chasers”, as well, and you know what my thought was during the show Sun. evening??! (Seriously..) “I think Reed’s pretty hawt…but God Help us All if he chased “WINTER STORMS”….
lmao @ tommy….;)
Well, as a woman, I never have, don’t, and never will do that. I say what I mean, and mean what I say. It’s that ol “Only Child Syndrome” thing. Now, my hubby, on the other hand…well…he’s just freakin’ extreme…no exceptions…:D (And damn happy he ain’t no winter expert…snort!)
So what is going on.
he wouldn’t be in central ky very often lol