Good Monday folks and thanks for dropping by. The weather over the weekend turns absolutely spectacular for Sunday with sunshine and temps in the low 60s. The timing on that was perfect since the fall colors are peaking right now. The weather over the next week is going to become fairly active for much of the country as our weather pattern begins to crank up! We well get into all that and take a look at what is happening in Denver this October. What happens in October in Denver does not apparently stay in Denver.

Let’s start with the weather around here today… awesome. Highs will be back into the low and mid 60s under a partly sunny sky. The rest of the forecast goes something like this…



Let me begin by saying the pattern this week is not going as I thought it would. One of my inherent forecasting biases is to recognize a pattern ahead and rush it along to quickly. I believe that is what is going on right now. This kind of reminds me of how I was talking about a jailbreak pattern taking shape for the last few weeks of September. The cold came…. but not until October and when it got here it was everything I had advertised giving us one of the coldest first halves of October ever.

I am seeing signs of a cold pattern taking hold of much of the country in the coming few weeks but, once again, I was pulling the trigger to early in trying to get it in here to end October. When is it coming? Hmmm… I am working on that right now but I firmly believe the pattern is working toward what has been talked about.

Here is the breakdown of the last days of October…

– Low pressure will work our way later Tuesday into Wednesday. The models have been pretty bad with this system and continue to vary on the timing and strength of the low. Regardless… showers will increase from southwest to northeast later Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. Temps will be mild still with upper 50s to low 60s.

– Thursday will see a strong southwesterly flow setting up leading to temps topping the 70 degree mark. There could be  a late day shower or storm.

– A powerful storm will take shape across the plains states Thursday into Friday and will move quickly into southern Canada. A line of showers and strong storms will come rolling eastward across the region later Friday into Friday night. Winds will likely be pretty strong with this system. Take a look at what the GFS is showing…

Friday Night


– Some showers may be around for early Halloween day. The rest of the day looks very windy with highs in the 50s.

– It is once into the first week of November we will really begin to see what happens to all that cold up in Canada. The signs of it coming down into much of the country are showing up… it’s a question of when!

I mentioned earlier something about the mile high city. I came across an article from a Denver newspaper about how incredibly cold October has been out there and I thought I would have some fun with it. Here is what their list looks like…

DENVER’S 5 COLDEST OCTOBERS – 1873-2008

39.0  1969
43.3  1925
43.9  2002
44.3  1923
44.8  1984 (2009?)

2 of the years I am looking at for the winter forecast are on that list… 1969 and 2002. 02 is a year that I am only looking at because of how the current El Nino is looking out in the Pacific. Seeing those years sparked my interest so I put the top 5 coldest Denver October’s together and here is what the average ensuing winter temp anomaly across the USA looked like…




Hmmm… interestingly enough a record cold October in Denver spells a cold winter for our part of the world! Like I said… Denver is no Vegas because what happens in October in Denver, doesn’t stay in Denver!

I will likely have another update later today so check back. Until then… take care.