Good Sunday everyone and welcome to a wonderful weather day! It is coming at a good time too as the leaves are reaching their peak for fall colors so get outside and check em out. That’s an order!! 
As far as the weather goes… the pattern is going to be getting very active this week and is one that can lead to a very cold start to November across much of the country.
Today and Monday look to be great weather days. After a cold start this morning… temps will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s under a partly sunny sky. That same sky will be with us for Monday as temps warm well into the 60s.
I mentioned with my last post that we needed to watch for a stronger storm moving in for Tuesday and the models have now gone right toward that line of thinking. As a matter of fact… this should be a pretty big wet weather maker across much of the region as low pressure moves through here later Tuesday into Wednesday. Here is the NAM for Tuesday Evening…
That setup should also bring some gusty winds here. Temps for Tuesday into Wednesday will still be fairly mild with 50s when it rains and 60s for areas that get in on some sun.
Beyond that… the hits keep on coming. We have been targeting Halloween weekend for a big storm forming that would usher in some colder temps. Well… the big storm is really gonna crank, but the fast pattern will likely result in a glancing blow of chill because a series of storms will be right on the heels of the big storm we are talking about.
This storm will form across the plains and roll northward into southern Canada late this week into the weekend. Ahead of it… it will likely get very windy and warm around here Thursday. This could lead to a pretty good line of showers and thunderstorms moving through here as a strong front blows through into Friday. Check out these new GFS maps I have for you…
Thursday Evening
Friday Morning
That storm really cranks as it heads into southern Canada! Winds are likely to be very gusty around here through Friday as temps come way down with 40s likely.
Halloween looks better because of this faster flow with highs in the 50s and evening trick or treat temps in the low and mid 40s.
Once into early November… all this cold air that has been building up in Canada is threatening to come crashing down into much of the United States. These are from the GFS…
November 3rd
November 6th
November 8th
As always… take them with a grain of salt from this far out. But in all fairness… take any model with a grain of salt outside of day 3 or 4 with the pattern that is setting up. The coming storm for Tuesday and Wednesday is proving that theory to be correct. I told you the models are going to struggle with the pattern. 
Have a great Sunday and take care.
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Shane… since you prefer the 00Z runs..check out the new 00Z GFS. We still look to top out upper 50s..probably will still be 50ish at kickoff. A long way from 39 bud. 😉 But you know, it’s 7 days out so there is no sense in getting serious about it until next week. This is all in fun. One day the haters will believe. Go CATS!
in a shocking delevopment the 06z gfs is coming around the euro in slowing the trough’s movement’s east which should mean warm through halloween perhaps 70’s since we’re still ahead of the front for friday, once again the gfs is playing catchup to the euro runs of the past few days which have showed this. kickoff temp upper 40’s sat night and a squall line severe threat friday.
to recap about 3 days ago the gfs didn’t have the trough while the euro did, then for about a day they both showed showed the trough rapidly moving east then the euro was first to show a slow down of it friday night with the gfs runs finally playing catchup today.
WXman,
I have a weather model question for you.
How come, more often than not, models seem to be supercold at first but then keep on getting warmer as its validity date gets closer?
Now if I could just read and understand those maps, I might know what they meant. I don’t know what all the lines mean, or numbers…guess I need to take a weather class.
Chris, every time I type more than 25 words, I get put in moderation. Then the post never shows up…what is wrong?
Happens to me too Rhonda…..not sure what is up! 🙂
I’ll admit it’s not looking good at this point, but oh well we will see. I still have some support from the 00z GFS Ensembles. http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS168.gif
Sure 6C at 850 would mean mid 40’s, but if it’s closer than to 39 than 58 I’ll be happy :P.
Oh one other point from yesterdays discussion. The models run in GMT, so to convert to EDT you subtract 5 hours… which would make 0z GMT on a model run, 1900 EDT… 7 PM.
And just when I think my forecast of 39 his nil chance of verifying… the 12z comes in to give me hope for 6 more hours ;).
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_temp_156.gif
Now if those surface temps would drop off a little bit…
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_156.gif
All in fun Wxman, all in fun :P.
Yeah but that map I pulled up that you posted the link to was 12Z Sunday, and that’s Sunday around sunrise…the coldest point in a day. I gotcha’ though…no biggie. Either way, you all need to remember…I want snow just as bad as everybody here!
That is a good question. GFS I have noticed is really bad about doing that this year…just like those maps Chris posted above…would make you think it’s about to get frigid around here, but it’s not. Those maps will modify greatly as we get closer. The problem has to do with the way the models process data at those time intervals..they just don’t do well that far out in transitional seasons like this.
If I had my way, it would be 29 right now and we’d be under 3 feet of snow. I’m with you guys. All I’m saying is it ain’t going to happen and the pattern is about to go warm compared to average as we head toward Winter. Look at 2004 (cold and wet all Summer)…then look at the Winter that followed.
The atmospheric models are inherently too progressive with weather features when you have a strong Pacific jet impinging upon western North America. As weather features enter the North American Upper Air network, the models get a better “sense” of where the features are and then starts to handle them better. Thus, systems start to show signs of “slowing” up with successive runs.
Thanks for answering my previous question. Maybe the models just do that to tease us 🙂
As for the 04-05 winter season it essentially depended where you lived. In central kentucky we got screwed, but other parts of the state got hammered with over 2 ft of snow in December! We were soooo close to getting that here in Lex. So I believe some parts of the state are definitely gonna fair better than others, probably eastern kentucky. Especially where chris lives lol: so he can rub it in! It all depends on where the infamous rain/snow fence is going to set up this year.
You say this winter will be warm and dry. So do you think we will have any 0 or below temps this winter? I hope we don’t.
Went to My Old Kentucky Dinner Train today and enjoyed the fall colors.
Chris do you see anything that maybe WXman might be right?Mitch,Shane do you guys agree with WXman? I for one sure would hate to look for a cold and snowny winter only to have WXman to be right. Besides we need some really cold stuff to get some of these germs out of here that H1N1 is really stating to worry me……
with the exception to that dec 2004 storm that winter was weak weak weak!
Marsha, I still don’t know enough about long range (Seasonal) forecasting to fill confident enough to comment on this. I have a hard enough time putting together a 7-day forecast :P.