Good afternoon, gang. We are in the middle of one of the worst weeks of winter weather on record for the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Additional snows today are adding to a near record snowpack for many. Blowing and drifting snow is a problem, and now we have record shattering cold moving in.
To make matters worse… I am likely to go with a Winter Storm Threat for the weekend. I will check over some late day data before making that call, but a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain looks to develop as early as late Friday.
The NAM is rather bullish on this potential…
One of the strengths of the NAM is the ability to pick up on low-level cold air, so that’s why you are seeing the model going with that nasty mix. We shall see how that plays out in the modelling world over the next day or so. I suspect you may see some changes show up on them as they get a better grasp on the snowpack and bitter cold air.
Speaking of that bitter cold air… tonight is flat out UGLY. Lows go well below zero with wind chills off the charts cold…
Wind Chill Warnings need to be issued for this!
Friday morning actual low temps could push all time records…
You do not want to mess around with the temps over the next few days. This is a dangerous situation!
Back to the rest of today… more snow showers and squalls will be likely with additional accumulations. Eastern Kentucky can pick up several more inches on this strong northwesterly wind flow. Blow and drifting will continue.
Track away…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
I-75 MPÂ 127
Georgetown
I-64Â MP 97
Winchester
Mountain Parkway near Slade
US 23 at 119
I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
I-65 MP 32
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
I-24Â MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
Edit: Take care. 🙂
thanks Chris
I am stuck in Cincinnati in traffic q Rex to deal with
Chris you do a good job on keeping people updated.you and jim caldwell,brandon orr,micah harris and brandon robinson both.thanks guys.
Thanks Chris. The snows have come and have been exciting and this mornings is beautiful, but now I’m ready for them to go! Hoping this weekend doesn’t play out as expected….sounds really nasty. Hoping for mostly snow with a very quick melt afterwards or all rain.
This is a historical time period, that Chris Bailey nailed before ANYONE else wanted to talk about it. He is the man!
This weekend is not going to be pretty. Contrary to what the NWS said, this will not be a mostly rain event. Snow, then sleet, then freezing rain, and the combo of all three are in play.
We won’t soon forget the winter of 2015!
Bailey is THE man! He did nail all of this exactly!
Some Louisville Mets seem to be going strickly by the models and are predicting 40 degree`s with rain. I think you can take about 5 degree`s, at least, off that because of the snow pack.
This is why I read this blog.
I agree. Lots of places reporting 40+ degrees and rain. CB knows! By far the most reliable weather info out there comes straight from this site.
That is really irresponsible of them to not try and interpret the models by figuring in all the different variables, and not just reading what it puts out verbatim.
This is a winter event over the weekend. It very well may end up raining at some point. But, not before we end up with more accumuating snow, and likely a glaze of ice on top of it, and even sleet pellets.
Wow! Scary times indeed! Thanks Chris.
1.7″ new snow in Valley Station from this morning’s blitz. Same as Louisville Int’l as of 7:00am. Still, I must have some mysterious, camouflaged spring nearby that repels snow more than the adjacent communities that always have more snow than me.
you are so funny, MikeS….
if you watched the news at all today, they kept on showing how NE Louisville was getting the bursts of snowfall over and over.
We ended up with 4″ of new snow.
We have a foot of snow on the ground right now.
I live in the Eastwood area of Louisville, and we picked up 3.5 to 4 inches of new snow this morning! Over a foot of snow now.
awesome! moving out that way soon (Brookfield).
Drove out there to check on the new house and wow the winds are really kicking up the snows and blowing it around all over.
Thanks Chris. Hate to say this, but for the weekend, I would rather see more snow than the first drop of freezing rain or ice. I know we have plenty of snow at the moment, but I’d still rather see that as cie any day. Stay safe and warm, weather friends!
All time record low for Pikeville is -18 we have a chance to at least tie if not break it Friday Morning! Unreal!
No “take care”. That is a first.
edited.
🙂
I prefer snow any day than ice. The spurts of wind gusts make it look like a blizzard off my back porch.
Thanks so much Chris! You are my FIRST source for anything weather related!!
That pic Rachel tweeted outside what looks like her front door in Lexington looks crazy…….
I wonder how long it will take before it actually turns to plain rain, and then, how long will that plain rain last before going back to freezing on the back side? So many questions.
Unless further south, it does not seem plain rain is going to be part of the main mix.
Will the squalls only develop over eastern ky today or will they become more widespread?
I thought, as a general rule, that low pressures would travel along the southern edge of a snow pack. If thats correct, it would travel through Tennessee, not Kentucky. Also, I thought the Arctic cold would push the low further south.
It just seems we have a lot for the low pressure to overcome, for it to travel through Kentucky. Plus the snow pack would bring the temperatures colder than the models are currently showing.
I think that notion (that storms travel along the edge of snow packs) gets repeated quite often, but it doesn’t really seem to be the case. In my casual observations over the last 20 years, that doesn’t seem to happen.
A large snow pack does mean that models often are too quick scouring out the cold air at the surface. So that means periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain often last longer than initially predicted.
If that panned out, we would have not got the snow for this event since cold air (like a snow pack) was already in place.
The weekend might be kicking the area when already down.
Guys is it true that Pike and some other counties were upgraded to winter storm warning for up to 8 more inches of snow? Anyone heard that? We will be buried.
Yes, the Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 1 AM on Thursday morning. NWS estimates an additional 3-8 inches total.
Does the picture of the NAM in this post show this event as all snow? Or am I reading that wrong. I thought that’s what blue and purple/pink meant.
No. The snowfall map includes sleet and all other frozen precipitation. Its surface map is colder than other models, but it does show rain for all of the state from Saturday through a portion of Sunday.
Not buying into mainly plain rain (but would be nice IMO). CB already said the models will take another day or two to catch on to the cold air surface data and there is cold air following up after the weekend. This could get messy and nasty and not thaw out much for over another week.
Where is a blow torch when you need it?
Frankly, I agree. Kicking people when they are already down……I hope it is plain rain but not heavy rain. It’s amazing how you want snow so bad and then when you get it and it hangs around for a few days with frigid temps, you kinda (at least I do) get a little sick of it. It does make the days go by so much more slowly than normal. This week is CRAWLING by, making it feel like this week has felt like month so far.
The torch will be lit this Sat and Sunday
The 12Z Canadian is quite warm. It streaks the low pressure over the weekend through central Indiana. It delivers quite a snow storm for areas north of Indy.
I would take that! Wash this stuff away! Well, presuming no flooding of course.
That seems a pipe dream and not picking up the cold in place. Current local met feedback is this should be colder and flow more north than expected. Even CBs fellow mets are getting on board. For now anyway.
The track of the low pressure may not be a pipe dream, but the warming could be. As has been noted, the models are often too quick to displace low level cold air. That’s probably the case here. The low could easily track over Indy and still bring a period of significant snow, sleet, and ice to Kentucky because it will take longer for the warm air to win out.
Right now, there seems to be good agreement that the storm begins and ends as snow, but the middle portion features a soaking (flooding?) rain.
This close to the event, I don’t think there’s much that would suddenly cause the models to shift the track of the low 100 miles south.
I’m just going by mets from today. They seem to think plain rain will not be much of the total unless in south of state. Question then would be what is “south”?
Current view is snow, sleet, ice and then snow again. How much of each is also a question.
Oh, I’m not saying that’s wrong. I’m just saying the low pressure track means the warm air will eventually win out. Any hopes of an all snow event are pretty much done.
I want plain rain 🙂
I just found out it is true Pike County has been upgraded to winter storm warning with up to 3- 8 more inches of new snow wow.
I see we have a wind chill warning now until 7AM in CKY. It would be crazy to think it could go from that to rain and 40’s, but it is KY and we seem to get all the weird weather. It will be interesting to see how the models develop over the next day or two. Those of you that can read those sorts of things give us your interpretation.
Thank you CB, hope you get a vacation when this is all over!
Stay warm everyone!
Hi temp for sunday 45 for Athens OHIO,thats just crazy
And likely wrong
Joining the 12Z Canadian, the 12Z Euro tracks the weekend low pressure from northwest Arkansas through southern Illinois and then through central Indiana. Basically, a soaking, but very cold, rain. I’m not saying each may be too aggressive at scouring out the low level cold air, but the low pressure track mean, eventually, a soaker of a rainstorm. At this point, the track would need to shift 200 miles southeast in order to keep many of us on the cold side.
Plain rain would be nice, but sadly not what any local met are saying right now. Either your interpretation of the event or the current met consensus is incorrect. This is from CB’s post here as example:
“To make matters worse… I am likely to go with a Winter Storm Threat for the weekend. I will check over some late day data before making that call, but a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain looks to develop as early as late Friday.”
Rain FTW!
Bubba – Robbie may be right! Let’s hope so….
I wonder what the official total was at KLEX for snowfall today? I can never get it until the update the climate data at 430 (ish) pm
Nothing good will happen if the overall result is cold. Think warm things 🙂
Just to be clear, I’m just relaying what the actual model data is suggesting. As is always the case, that raw data needs to be interpreted by professionals and that’s why we’re seeing them produce lower numbers than the actual data suggests.
We hope the models are correct and do not go cold. Well, some of us do.
some of the weather dudes in louisville have come down on temps a little already. deep snowpack over a large area can produce its own micro climate. i think warming will be very slow. low to mid 30’s max saturday. saturday night below freezing. sunday rapidly falling tempetures. i think plenty of frozen stuff. maybe another winter blow. looking more likely lets see evening runs.i think they will trend colder.
Here`s from the Louisville NWS
Any issues with icing Friday night with trees/powerlines? Good question. It depends on how quickly the cold air can erode vs the warm air moving in. Right now, not expected a prolonged period at this time. Models varying from highs Sat of 30-33 to even an extreme of severe thunderstorms and warm for southern KY. Very difficult.
this is going to be all over the place…
I am leaning towards a combo of everything depending on where you are during the event.
I don’t see heavy rain or a prolonged rain only event.
I don’t see an all snow event, either.
One thing is for sure. Our snow will still be here come Sunday. It just may be very hard and very slick!!
some saying cold some saying warm,blow torch?
I am hoping for warm 🙂 Could be real iffy though the more north you are. Seems ice could be a factor for some to the north. Would love to know what is “south” and what is “north” in this regard.
CB has rarely been wrong on these things and the NWS changes their tune (just like the event we have now) a day before the event. Seems we are still in the NWS window of waffles.
Well no matter what happens, all your weather rules for fencetucky are shot all to blank………This has been crazy.
How do you tell the difference in Ice and Snow on these NAM maps, or is there a way?
NWS updated Forecast Discussion makes it sound like the weekend will start as all snow, switch to some frezzing rain then go all rain after dawn…rain all day then briefly switch back to snow. That seems very different then what CB articulated and was suggesting in his post….although sounds like is waiting for more info to decide. Will be interesting to see who is right! Think we will have a better idea later tonight or tomorrow after a few more model runs. My guess for the past several days is that it will be a mostly snow event and the temps will be lower then expected and trend colder due in part to the snow pack. This will be really fun to monitor and see how it all plays out!
Israel and I discussed this (sort of) a few posts ago. It seems that if you don’t have a huge snowpack to the south of you, then it really doesn’t matter with a southwest wind. Now, if you’re in Canada and you have a southwest wind with miles and miles of snowpack south of you, that warm air has to travel over a large snowpack…As far as I know, the snowpack ends in TN so I guess the warm air will travel somewhat over a snowpack before it reaches central KY at least, so who knows……It will be interesting to hear Chris’ thoughts.
States southwest of us have zero snow pack and are under winter storm watches. Harbinger of nasty for us then? I guess we wait for CB to post 🙂
Actually the NWS even references the snow pack in their discussion but they seem uncertain. Seems like their focus is more directed at the storm tack and placement. We will find out soon enough although think their will be a better indication of what is going to happen later tonight or even tomorrow. Seems like a challenging and tricky forecast.
For those wanting rain this weekend – are you the same that have whined for years to bust the dome? C’mon man! Let’s ride the snow pony as long as we can. Bring on another foot! The only thing in the forecast I really don’t like is the brutal cold.
Nah, heavy snow or ice is a 99% guarantee my power goes out. Plain rain please 🙂 😉
No. It was like we needed a fix, and we got it…….
ummmm, noooooo!
I agree I am a loyal dedicated snow lover. I will ride the snow train as long as possible. Until this past Monday I had a total of 2 inches. I am OK with another couple weeks of Winter, snow like this is too rare in my area. There will be plenty of nice days from April on. By the way I hope there is no rain this weekend especially a deluge. I prefer a slow melt with no flooding.
If anyone had any doubt about this weekend, there have now been Winter Storm Watches posted for Friday and Saturday that include Arkansas, Tennessee, and northern Georgia and Alabama.
I’m not positive, but, I think those states are further south than Kentucky 😉
If the warm air were a big precip factor, those southern states would be plain rain. Maybe they mean tropical storm? Probably not 😉
WHAS11 in Louisville literally has the low temp Saturday being 38 and the high being 43.
Said heavy rain possible with 1-2″.
They are by far the worst station in these types of setups. They literally read what the computer (Euro/GFS) puts out and makes it “their” forecast.
Sounds like WTVQ Channel 36 here in Lex. They’re always boasting that they have “Central KY’s most accurate forecast.” Ha! THAT is a good one!
That team is horrible! I know we are not supposed to post that but OMG! That crew is a freakin train wreck!!
I feel uncomfortable watching that crew because they are so awkward and bad. It’s almost as if they are doing a parody of how not to do a newscast. It’s just bizarre and odd.
Snowing again nears Taylorsville with winds…blizzard like outside.
*near
NWS Morristown talking about issuing a winter storm watch for their area Friday night and Saturday. In their discussion they are saying that they believe the biggest ice threat is in the south of their coverage area while the northern part of their coverage area should stay snow until a change to rain Saturday morning/afternoon.
Let’s hope its snow this time…trees still hanging fullnof ice and snow from today’s snow ..
folks going be a SERIOUS FLOODING Situation Sunday. the start with winter weather will not be that much as WARM AIR WINS OUT!! upward 50 degreees Saturday. 2-3 inch rains on top foot of snow has bad written all over it.
You said old school 2 and now rain. That’s the Rolocoaster!
Either way not good for folks.
the SNOWPACK indeed is in there discussion cause of FLOODING
Looks like a dang blizzard to me!
the prob with the weekend system is nobody knows what the snowpack influence will be bc were not used to having a snowpack around 🙂
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF TN…HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!,ANOTHER ICE STORM UNFOLDING….HEAVY SNOE TO ICE TO RAIN BACK TO ICE….DRAMAMINE ANYONE??
I think that due to the cold air and large snow pack there will be less than expected plain rain and other stuff. The stuff depends on how north. JMO
That winter storm warning today was a good up, might of picked up .5 of snow this morning. Sun was out most of the day in knott co
Why is some people are worry about flooding. That’s not gonna be a issue.ice and wet snow is the issue that we need to be concern with. Even we did get rain that doesn’t mean its gonna flood.