Good middle of the work week Wednesday everyone! The weather over the past few days has been very nice for the most part and it looks like we have one more day to go before changes set in. The threat for showers and storms will be coming back as we head into Thursday and Friday.
Before then… today looks like another winner with temps back into the middle 80s in most areas. A few upper 80s will be possible and you can track the temps with the good folks at Kentucky Mesonet…
A cold front will sweep toward the area later in the day on Thursday. Windy and warm weather will be with us ahead of the front which will bring showers and storms with it. Some of the storms could be strong or even severe. The NAM is showing this setup quite nicely…
Thursday Evening
A few scattered storms will try to carry into Friday as well with temps in the 80s yet again. A very warm surge is likely to shoot in here Saturday as temps make a run toward 90 or lower 90s. Winds will be kicking up as well ahead of yet another front slated to arrive on the scene Sunday and that will lead to another threat for storms.
GFS Sunday Evening
That front will be leading the charge for a dip in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. This will put us back into a northwesterly flow thus leading to cooler weather yet again. The heat will be pushed back to the west and this is something alluded to on the blog several days ago. The real heat just does not want to move in here or into the lakes and northeastern parts of the country.
In other news… the El Nino Watch is on! The folks with the government have come up with this neat little meter to track the Pacific waters along the equator and I thought I would share it with you…
Ain’t it cute? 
As you can see… we are right on the cusp of moving into a weak El Nino. We will track the strength of the warming waters as that will give us a good clue on how the winter ahead may turn out.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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For us to have a snowy winter do we need el nino or la nina? I never have understood that.
During an El Niño, snowfall is greater than average across the Rockies and Sierra Nevadas, and is well-below normal across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes states.
As for temperatures…An El Niño year also exhibits above normal temperatures for most of North America during the fall and winter, except for the Gulf Coast area, which is typically colder and wetter during that period.
A strong El Niño is not what you want to see, if you’re a snow lover. However, as of right now, according to the metric posted it is a very weak El Niño, almost non-existent.
el nino sounds nice 02-03 was an el nino winter and featured lots of 2-3” snows with some nasty cold periods cb whenever you wanna call on the arctic big guns feel free i am ready!!!!!
Thanks, Chris. YEsterday was really beautiful, but it was pretty hot here. We got up to 89, I think, but the humidity being low made it not too bad.
Today, we are at 84 right now, and it is still pretty comfortable outside at thie point. I guess we will see what the afternoon holds as far as heat and humidity…not looking foreard to storms again, but, as I have so often said….I guess we will take what we get!
Have a great afternoon, everyone! And thanks again, Chris. Hey, I signed up to follow you on twitter, and did the cell phone thing, too, but, so far, I haven’t heard a ‘peep’ out of you. 😉 anybody else have that problem? Just wondering…
so SERGIO GARCIA is effecting our weather,hmmm
lol
I had to seeing the the first thing i thought of. that his nickname,
I have yet to have a bride to be brave enough this year to schedule and outdoor wedding. All have chosen to be inside brides this year and I am so thankful for that. It sure relieves a little stress when the forecast is for week-end rains to be a possibility. Thanks for keeping us posted. (no pun intended). Helps make my job just a little easier.
for a colder and snowier we will need
1. a week el-nino that fades toward the end of the winter
2. a continued cold PDO
3. canada to stay cooler than normal for the summer and fall.
what we don’t need
1. the el-nino to turn strong with a sw flow that would crearte similar condtions to a postive PNA
The beginning of next week is looking very interesting. That is one heck of a low trying to wind up on the GFS, Euro and Canadian.
neg PNA sorry!
Dumb question. Those storms currently over northwest Kansas, I guess they are just considered “strong” not severe because none of the counties are warned. My question is, if those exact storms were over KY, would they be considered severe or is the same criteria for every state the same regarding storms?
The new criteria for a severe thunderstorm warning is 1″ diameter hail, or winds over 50 knots *58 mph*. That takes affect nationwide next year, however NWS offices out of the central area are still under the old system of 3/4″ diameter hail or 50 knot+ winds.
nws- mid to upper 80’s and sun
Mitch- mostly cloudy ch. showers and mid 70’s for highs.
the nws gets burned on this a lot sticking to close to norm in a nw flow pattern 5 days out.
Yeah, I keep forgetting that you have it all figured out. None of the current modeling supports your forecast…even the raw data.
12z GFS/GGEM and 18z GFS show at least a chance of rain Sunday-Wednesday. While the Raw temperatures are not as low as Mitch is forecasting, I would not feel comfortable putting out a forecast with upper 80’s for Sunday, I think low to mid 80’s would be a safer bet for Sunday, with low 80’s for highs Monday-Wednesday.
If you’re upset someone called out the NWS forecast, defend it and provide evidence to back up your point of view. Slamming his saying it has no support is a bit of a stretch IMO. His temperatures might not have model support, but in a cloudy/damp pattern with a strong 500mb Low in the area, I would not be betting on temps at the mid 80’s.
Just my humble opinion, I’m still learning, I’m still growing as a forecaster. I appreciate the job the NWS at Louisville does, especially during severe weather, but do you really want to defend yourself like you did in such a sarcastic manner?