Good Sunday, folks. As temperatures continue to increase, so to does the potential for additional flooding problems across our region. I simply do not like the pattern taking shape for the week ahead. It’s one that will throw a lot of juice our way from the Gulf of Mexico and that could spell trouble.
River flooding continues to be a problem into parts of Kentucky. Additional snow melt will add to our swollen creeks and streams. The Gulf of Mexico is going to be wide open for business this week as a couple of moisture laden systems roll our way. The first one arrives Monday night and lasts through Wednesday morning and the rain numbers with this are showing up higher and higher…
NAM
GFS
1″-3″ rains will be possible during this time and that would be more than enough to cause another round of flooding issues.
The next system looks even more potent as it rolls in by Friday and carries us into next weekend. Here’s the setup for that one…
That could be beyond ugly if things play out as the current pattern suggests. Here’s hoping something changes with this setup in the coming days.
I will have additional updates coming your way later today. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.
MarkLex – You might find this interesting. Lexington has had more snow this season than Minneapolis, Minnesota! They have had 27.2″ of snow while we have had 40″. We’ve had 31.8″ from February 16 through March 5, or 18 days. Even with just the 2 winter storms, is already enough to p*a*s*s Minneapolis in snowfall this season! (10.2 & 17.1) They have had no higher than a 5″ snowpack which was only for one day. We have had 5″ or greater snowpack for 11 days this season! Crazy stuff!
Yeah – and Omaha Nebraska hasn’t done well with snow either this year or last year…..So even places up north don’t necessarily get huge snow storms every single year….So if, say, the next 2 winters go by, and we don’t get a large snow, that doesn’t mean the trend hasn’t changed for us……I don’t think this area will go the next 17 years without a big snow again……Maybe a few years, (like in the past) but not nearly 2 decades.
The difference here is that Omaha averages 27.6″ of snow and Minneapolis averages nearly twice as much, or 50.7″. And yeah, nobody can say this is a trend yet, because trends happen over time and years, not over one season. I firmly believe we are going into a period of colder and snowier winter’s for the US. That really seems like a trend lately, and warmer winter’s for the western US. Weather ALWAYS comes in patterns, and the drought in California is no exception. It will be almost impossible for the West to get an extreme cold and snowy winter because of the ongoing drought. Drought feeds drought to make it worse and warmer, that’s just the pattern of it. With that, which creates warm sea surface temperatures along the coast, creates a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. This domino effect will likely create brutal winter’s up ahead for the eastern US, and many Mets will agree. These past two winters will become the norm, and not the exception its been since the 70’s.
I did some math
Last 5 winters at KLEX
2010/2011 27.8
2011/2012 7.6
2012/2013 12.5
2013/2014 27.1
2014/2015 40.0
Average 23 per year
Now, 3 of those were well above normal, one was 2 were below……
Only down to 39 this morning in Richmond. Once the sun comes up, I am eager to see how much temps rise. Lots of thawing today for sure.
Made it to 2 with bare ground other than the water and clear skies
26 not 2 lol
Going to be really warm today, I would not be surprised to see the whole area in the 60’s today.
Still lots of snow on the ground here in Frankfort but, much less than there was yesterday at this time. It’s down to 26 here and the sun is just starting to shine.
today will bring completely bare ground here, the first time in nearly a month, I think Sunday dinner will be cooked on the grill today.
Was thinking the same thing! MOST of the deck is visible. While shoveling for the 800th time this past week the neighbor and I decided mowing “wasn’t so bad”
Chance of heavy rain in Greenbay today, 100%
Are we talking ’37 or ’97 ugly with this much snow melt and heavy rains on already saturated ground and swollen waterways?
In looking towards Spring I am curious as to which weather models are most accurate in forecasting the severe storms? Do they use the same NAM, GFS, Euro, etc that they do to predict snowfall? I know these models are used above to illustrate the amount of rain we are expected to receive.
I have learned so much this winter since reading and commenting on this blog. I look forward to following along the next season with my fellow weather friends.
I hope everyone enjoys the sunshine and warmer temps today!
Still use the same weather models. Generally they all are more accurate for thunderstorms.
http://gray.ftp.clickability.com/wkytwebftp/NEW7DAY-HD600_WEB.jpg
Actual WKYT forecast high for today is 49.
I don’t care what you say, I’m not putting my clock forward AGAIN tonight.
Haha you should see how wonky the WKYT News app is right now.
Here in Carter Co. It’s 54 on my porch and snow is really melting. I’m gettin ready to take a walk & get some rays on my pale face. We really need a sunny, dry week but doesn’t look that way from the models. Hope they’re wrong. Enjoy the day.
FLOODING RAINS…no way I would wish that on anyone. Lived through that in Harlan during the 1977 flood. I get a real sick feeling in my stomach for all my eastern Ky friends with a forecast like this.
We are dealing with that already last week why not pile more on
The Kentucky River has yet to reach flood stage here in the pool between frankfort and Tyrone. It is forecast to fall in the coming days
Made it to 62 today in London. Wondering if we can hit 70 this week. Snow is all gone and yard is all mud
Temps overachieved area-wide today and are just going to go higher in the short term. I think London is a great bet for the low 70s.
We made it to 63 today, it felt like spring, the snow is now gone other than the large piles in the parking lots,