Good Friday, the fun in the sun is over as we are now tracking rounds of heavy rain moving across the commonwealth. This is why a Flood Watch was posted for a big chunk of Kentucky. There are a few counties missing from the watch in southern and eastern Kentucky. Here’s a look at that.

The zone that isn’t included will still see some rainfall and I even think that those locations will have a round of heavier rain or two to deal with. In my last long post I went on-and-on about the rainfall trajectory. That’s partially why those counties are not included in this watch. Our heaviest bands will most likely set-up along I-64. Stretching from Louisville to Ashland. That line could sway a little north or a little south. But I fully expect that to be the location of the heavier rainfall. Again… give a little wiggle room north or south.

For days I have been showing what some of the model output was suggesting for our area. I had almost given up on some of the resolutions that they were coming up with. It was a battle back and forth on where the heavy rain would most likely occur. I was about to draw one out by hand when finally one run read my mind. Saved me a bunch of time drawing those layers on to a map. While it could still change some… I don’t think we’ll see significant changes to the forecast.

Rain

 

The only thing I would change is I might slide the 2″ plus line down slightly south of I-64. It’s rare that a run just reads my mind, but this one truly did. Maybe I am beginning to will these models to look how I want them? That’s a lot of water gang. Creeks will swell up quite a bit with this one.

I also threw this together to consolidate several of the models that I use daily. Some are under-playing the overall rainfall totals, but all are seeing these round of rain really coming together.

Rainfall

 

There will be an end to this system by Saturday night and into Sunday. Some cooler air will also try to filter in on Sunday as well. A quick drop into the mid and upper 40s will be a good possibility. That cooler shot of air will not be alone. Even more cool air will return into the middle and end of the week. If the timing can work out just right we will have some moisture passing through around the same time that our temperatures drop below freezing. We all know what that means… a few flakes. It’s a long-shot at this point, but I keep seeing those hints showing up.

As Always… here are all of your tracking tools.

Stay dry and Take Care