Good Monday everyone and welcome to the Month of June. Today kicks off the start of meteorological Summer that runs through August 31st. It is also the start of the Atlantic hurricane season as well. I thought it would be fun to take a little glimpse into the future to see where we may be going.

I must say I have not put a whole lot of time into this presentation so it will be a little scattered… kind of like my brain. But I have had my own thoughts about where the summer would be going for more a couple months now and nothing has really changed.

A quick review of where we are…

1. Wrapping up a very stormy May with most of the region above to well above normal in precipitation.

2. Some areas of eastern Kentucky picked up 10″ of rain in May.

3. Temps for the month finished on just on the plus side of normal for most areas.

4. May also saw a middle of the month cold snap that brought some frost to the area.

5. Globally… the Pacific Ocean water near the equator is warming dramatically as El Nino comes alive.

Let’s start with the last point there. We have been in what is known as a La Nina of late. That is simply where those same Pacific ocean waters are cooler than normal. That continues to change quickly as we transition into an El Nino… warmer than normal water temps. Since this area of the Pacific is a big time driver to the overall weather we get here in the United States, it is always good to keep a close eye on what is going on out there.

Just how strong this El Nino gets is open for discussion. Some of the forecast models have recently gone ballistic with this thing giving us a strong El Nino by this fall and winter. Others are more subdued with their forecasts. Here is one of the models going crazy with it…



The 0 line is normal and the curvy black line shows where the water temps have been up until the present time. The colored lines are the various model runs looking into the future with the blue line showing the average. As you can see… the average line gets up there at plus 2 by the winter. That would be an historic El Nino if that happens. Here is the breakdown of El Nino Strength…

0 to + .5=  Warm Neutral

.5 to 1= Weak El Nino

1 to 1.5= Moderate El Nino

1.5+= Strong El Nino

My take on it is that the models are going way overboard with how strong it will get. They are likely reacting to the recent warming of these waters and are likely overblown by a good bit. I would bet we spike into the weak to perhaps moderate El Nino status before all is said and done!

In looking back at years where we have had a switch from La Nina to El Nino… we find the following years…

1951
1963
1976
1986
2006

If you add those yeas up for the June through August period around here you get below normal temps! This is something that the various seasonal computer forecast models are showing as well. Take a look at a couple…







You can also add the UKMET and European Models to the mix in calling for below normal temps for the summer ahead for us and a lot of other folks.

In my “where we are” part… I highlighted how wet we have been during the month of May. A wet ground means a lot of the energy from the sun goes into evaporation as opposed to heating the air. Add a lush vegetation to the mix and it’s get even harder to have prolonged hot spells. We have both going right now and the models are also calling for a continuation of the wet weather…



If that is indeed the case… it is going to be a stormy and wet Summer and Fall around here! Are the models right? Well… they do match what I have been thinking for a while now so I have to give them their due.

My take is…

June- Likely to be the warmest Summer month in terms of it’s relation to normal. May average slightly above normal and will likely feature a spell of 90 degree days. I do not see much change from the wet pattern.

July- Starts toasty and trends cooler and wetter as the month goes by. Once again it should be wetter than normal.

August- Cooler and wetter than normal! El Nino’s are famous for late Summer cool shots so I am following the trend here.

Overall… Summer 2009 should feature slightly below normal temps and above normal precipitation. Some other odds and ends…

1. 15 90 degree days may be the max. I can see that number being much lower if the wet pattern does continue.

2. With the wet May and a probably wet summer ahead… more flash flood threats are likely ahead of us.

3. There could be an increased threat for severe weather this summer as well.

4. Hurricane buffs will get a lot of stuff developing close to the US this year with a “normal” number of storms likely.


So there you have it… the 2009 Summer Forecast! If it is totally wrong… oh well… at least I gave you a good laugh and it wouldn’t be the first time!

Oh yeah… for the winter lovers. Some of the years that see a switch from La Nina to El Nino featured pretty good winters around here! The computer models seem to think those years may very well be latching on to something…



It’s never too early to start looking ahead!

On a much shorter range note… watch for some clusters of storms to skirt by to our north Tuesday. Those will have to be watched as they get too close for comfort. Wednesday may be a severe weather day with locally heavy rains.

Have a great Monday and take care.