Good Friday to one and all. September is off and running on a historic note across the region as a heat wave engulfs the commonwealth. This is the hottest air of the year and that is saying something! The silver lining is that major changes will come our way late this weekend into early next week.
The big change will feature the potential for strong storms and heavy rains that may have some tropical connections. More on that setup here in a bit.
Let’s start out with the heat wave as things are cooking once again today. Highs Thursday hit 100 degrees in Louisville for the first time in September since 1954. That same month also featured 100 degree temps in Lexington and history has a chance to repeat itself. Highs today will range from the mid 90s in the east to 100 degrees across parts of central and western Kentucky.
Currents
High Temps
Saturday looks to feature a similar setup with more triple digit heat a possibility. The ONLY bit of good news with this is we have some pretty dry air in place, so humidity levels aren’t really playing into all this.
Once past this absurd heat wave, things really begin to change with the possibility of active weather of another kind on the horizon. A strong cold front will approach us from the northwest by later Sunday. This front has a major push of cool air behind it setting up a big clash of the seasons along it. This front and moisture from Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico may team up to produce significant rains in parts of this region.
We will begin feeling the impacts of this front on Sunday as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through the day. These rains will become more widespread late in the day into Sunday night with the potential for strong or severe storms.
This is also the time we begin to really see deep moisture along and ahead of the front. This can produce torrential rains into Labor Day.
Here is the NAM showing the front drawing tropical moisture from Lee northward into the state early Monday Morning…
That front would then slowly work eastward through the rest of the day with heavy rains ending from west to east by evening. Temps will come way down with readings in the low and mid 70s.
What is left of Lee may then begin to lift northward into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday. Many of he models have been hinting at this for the past few days. If that is the case, heavy rains would then work back into parts of our region.
This is a long way from being a certainty as we have a lot of variables coming into play over the weekend that will eventually decide where Lee goes. The GFS has been showing the tropical rain track into our region for the past several runs. Look at some of the robust rain numbers from the past two runs of the model through the middle of next week…
The model goes on to produce even more rain beyond this time frame as it keeps what is left of the storm meandering around the region for several more days.
Again… we have a lot of unanswered questions with Lee before we can figure out how much rain, if any, the system would directly bring our region.
Speaking of this tropical system that is soon to be (if not already) Lee. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center…![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1311W5_NL_sm2+gif/023812W5_NL_sm.gif)
This gulf system is going to be a slow mover over the weekend and is expected to bring 10″-20″ of rain to parts of the Gulf States with Louisiana in the bullseye. Major flooding is a strong possibility with Lee.
You also see Katia entering the right hand corner of the sat shot. Here is where the NHC has this storm going…![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/023614W5_NL_sm.gif)
Katia may end up making for some nervous moments along the east coast toward the middle of next week.
If you are a regular reader, you know the word I have been using to describe the weather over the past few years… EXTREME! Does anything in this blog post suggest anything other than extreme weather?
I will have updates as needed and don’t forget to follow my twitter feed as I will send out rapid fire updates on the heat and next week’s potential.
Have a great Friday and take care.
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good morning from the town of wayne. it is 2am and the temp is in the mid 70s. allthose rain fall maps are scary to say the least.
we need rain here in knox co. My yard hasn’t had a good soaker in over 3 wks.!! Having to water shrubs just to keep them from dying!
All of this EXTREME weather is just the sign of the times with no end to it.
good morning from the town of wayne, wva. it is 11:20am with a temp now in the mid 80s with a dew point of 72 with a heat index of 90 or so. very ironic that after the very hot summer we have had that it waits until september to have the hottest temps of the summer, go figure…. thank you for your time and god bless you and your family.
It is way too hot this early. Lol. It is 89f at my house. Ouch! Haha. Those rain maps are a bit much, but I’ll take them.
Jake
My Texas relatives cannot believe that so much rain is so close and yet so far. If that system would just shift to the west. Oh, the good it could do!!!
Lexington getting close to 100! Since 1872 its only hit 100 9 times in September in Lexington. This is some impressive heat!
According to car thermometer, anywhere between 99 and 102 in Richmond right now. Everybody stay cool!
oh how i wish my yard would get one of those storms thats popping up today..
….. …
wow !!! TWC just showing rainfall forecast for the next 5 days..6-10 inches all the way to the tn/ky border…
We had a bake sale today in Clay County and nearly baked ourselves in the process! When I left around 5 pm, my car thermometer said it was 95 degrees.
Hailing and pouring rain with wind blowing trees like crazy here in Burgin….and the sun is still shining!!
good evening from the town of wayne, wva. it is going on 9pm and the temp is 87 with a heat index of 95 and a dew point of 74 making for a very muggy night for high school football. most temps in the wayne area topped out in the mid 90s today and some local mets are saying that saturday could make for the hottest day of the entire summer with temps soaring into the upper 90s and just maybe a 100 possible but it is probably a long shot the further east you live and most likely the further west you live. looks as though we may go from 1 extreme to another from hot and dry to cool and soggy but then again we would not have it any other way here in the ohio valley, would we? as the ole saying goes…if you do not like the weather here in the ohio valley, wait 5 minutes and it will change. then we all can have some thing else to gripe about…..lol!!!! thank you for your time and may god bless you and your family.
According to my car thermometer here in Owensboro, it made it 102 air temp today. I am so ready for fall and cooler temps. I moved here two months ago(from Corbin) and I don’t remembering it raining for more than 5 minutes the entire time I’ve been here. The grass is very brown and crunchy.