AFTERNOON UPDATE

Good afternoon everyone and thanks for blogging with us. A few storms are beginning to develop across the south this afternoon and we will see some scattered stuff into the evening hours. These storms are developing in an area that had another round of strong storms and heavy rains last night so we will have to watch for some local high water problems.

Things remain on track for rounds of heavy rain and storms through Saturday. Our buddy MJ had a great extended forecast discussion this morning from the NWS in Louisville. The NWS Jackson discussion was just… hmmmm…. strange…

THE US MODELS ALMOST SEEMED TO BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
THE PRECIP AMOUNT IS OF BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WITH WET SOIL AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTION AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY A BIT LESS
THAN AND INCH AS OPPOSED TO THE 2 INCH FORECAST WITH THE GFS. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE TO THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES…BUT GENERALLY FAVORED THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

I guess it’s solved… no one in the extremely flood prone areas of southeastern or eastern Kentucky will see an inch of rain through the weekend. This means you can all sleep well as there will be NO THREAT for high water problems!

I say that tongue in cheek my friends.

Take care.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hi gang and welcome to Thursday! It is pretty much more of the same as far as the overall weather pattern is concerned across Kentucky and that is not good news as we are in one soggy setup.

We did catch a break with the rains Wednesday. They were quick movers for the most part and a big cluster of storms across the deep south robbed some of the deeper moisture from working northward into our region. Still… several areas picked up an additional half inch of rain with a local one inch amount here or there. Scattered storms started firing up during the evening and those continued into the wee hours today putting down locally heavy rains as well.

Today will not feature a big widespread wall of rain crossing the area. Instead, we will see more in the way of scattered showers and thunderstorms and you can track those here…



Today will also feature some hazy sunshine that will boost temps into the 70s. This will go along with an increase in dewpoints and will give us an almost muggy feel at times. The increase in “juice” in the atmosphere will combine with another front that will slowly meander it’s way across the region to produce more rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms into the start of the weekend.



Unlike the past few rounds of rainfall… we will be in the warm sector meaning thunderstorms may finally really begin to show themselves. They may do so in clusters that move from west to east along and just to the south of the sluggish front. My concern is increasing for strong or severe storms as well as possible flooding rains Friday into Saturday. Timing these clusters of storms across the region is always tough, but the NAM tries to do it anyway…



That will be a situation that we will continue to watch very closely and have updates as needed so be sure to check back with us. That includes the chance that we try to get in on a few scattered strong or severe storms later today. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Looking down the road a bit… I am becoming a little more worried that this front tries to hang around a little longer into Mother’s Day or early next week. It simply cannot get very far south given the flow aloft and it may be a close call on whether it can completely clear the area.

Next week is going to try to get really warm and humid for a few days before a new front arrives on the scene by the middle and end of the week.

Have a great Thursday and take care everyone!