Good Wednesday everyone. Our weather continues to look wet and stormy as we have several rounds of rain and thunderstorms to move across the state through the rest of the week. The first round comes in today as a wave of low pressure develops and moves right over us with heavy rainfall a good bet in many areas.
A FLOOD WATCH is out for parts of the area and I would think some more counties might get added to this farther west before all is said and done. Here is where the watch is as of this writing…
The axis of heaviest rains will be farther west and north from where we had the flooding rains of this past weekend. Here is my map for this go around…
We are going to be dealing with some thunderstorms today and that will make for a tougher call on the exact track of the heaviest rains. It will also mean we see an increased threat for Flash Flooding as these storms can put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. It will be interesting to watch the radar today as well. This type of a setup can often give a very cool presentation on radar as the rain and storms tries to swirl around the surface low pressure. You can watch that unfold here…
The good news with this is that it should be a very quick mover with rains quickly shutting off during the evening hours. The bad news is that we are by no means done with the heavy rains and flood threat. The setup is such that rain and storms will continue to fire up to our west and roll eastward across the area Thursday into early Saturday. We may get several rounds of strong thunderstorms that put down a whole lot of rain.
GFS Friday Afternoon
GFS Friday Night
The rain numbers the models are spitting out over the next 4 days are very impressive to say the least. Take a look at what the GFS shows…
That has trouble written all over it and means you will really need to keep an eye on the weather into the start of the weekend and the blog will be your source for all things weather. You can follow along here and through Twitter and you will find us located in the top right hand corner of the blog.
I will be watching the threat for severe storms as well. Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center…
I will have updates as needed. Take care.
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Hope those maps are right and most of the rain misses SE KY was not fun mowing the water yesterday
I picked a heckuva week to get married! Cross your fingers for Saturday to be CLEAR!!!!!! (at least by 3:30)
Congratulations Tab, fingers crossed for Saturday for you.
Going to be a late garden this year. Can’t plant it for the mud.
Morning all, and thanks for the update, Chris. Loks like the bluegrass is going to be rather soggy for the next little bit!
Tab, congrats to you, and I hope the weather clears for you on Saturday. Best wishes for a very happy life!
Chris, do I see some light at the end of the tunnel? OUr forecast has no rain in it on Sunday or Monday. Even two days right now would be a good thing. Hubby DID get the yard mowed last night, during the “break” from the rains. Thank goodness for that! No billy goats needed at this time! 😉
Have a safe day, everyone. Keep an eye on the weather, especially for strong storms, and flooding!
Thanks for the update Chris. Hubby got the yard mowed last night. Sounds like he did a good thing there!
Tab, congrats to you! Crossing my fingers for a nice day on Saturday for EVERYONE, but especially you and your bride!
Everyone stay safe today. Keep an eye on the weather, and the creeks and streams.
P.S. If I come up with 2 posts, I got moderated, so I tried again….
My sister is getting Married this weekend too. I hope it clears too.
My plants are drowning.
However, this is good weather for finals week. It would be a lot harder to study if it was pretty out.
I have my meteorology final TONIGHT!! Wish me luck!
Luck!
My softball team got a big win last night…field conditions were a little damp though. Anyway, today’s song is an oldie but a goodie, and one that always gets me into a good mood: Chuck Berry’s “Johnny B. Goode” Go Johnny Go.
I am hoping Saturday is clear too as it is my son’s birthday and we have an outdoor party planned. 5-6 4 year olds in our duplex sounds like a recipe for disaster!
Congrats on the marriage! Hopefully we will all get some nice weather.
congrats on getting married Tab!
this situation does not look good later on in the week.
I’m sick of all this rain. The only good news is the grass is real thick and all that seeding I done early in April is paying off with nice grass. The bad part is I can’t mow it due to all the rain. Can’t wait to get out of this weather pattern.
Now we know why LMK didn’t go with a Flood Watch. Once again, the heavy rain did not materialize.
Good Luck and your name couldn’t better describe our situation atm
Well actually it’s me and my husband…I’m a gal. haha
Looks like most of the energy is down south. Are those storms “stealing” energy from what is going over us?
Just a nice, steady rain here in Gtown today. I mowed, planted grass seed and a tree last night in preparation for today’s soaking. We are not nearly as wet as most of the state.
Thats great the only better news would be skies are clearing and its gonna be 95 today and tomorrow and then maybe by Friday i will be able to mow without getting stuck in the yard.
Can anyone give me a SIMPLE explination of latent heat?
I know the definition ect. but I need a good, simple, explination.
Bingo. All that MCS activity to our south means no moisture for intense rainfall here.
When you change the state (solid, liquid, gas) there in energy involved. This is the latent heat. Like, when water goes from liquid to ice…that energy involved is the latent heat.
Well, in the simplest terms, latent heat is the release or absorption of energy by a substance when undergoing a phase change.
An example of this around these parts, would be in the winter time with mixed precipitation. Lets say we have a pre-existing arctic airmass in place with surface temps in the lower 20s. We then get a southwesterly flow aloft which transports warmer and more moist air into the region. This would typically result in overrunning precipitation and since it would fall trough that arctic airmass, we would think we’d get snow.
However, if we had a synoptic system that brought a large amount of forcing with it and lift, we have to account for this as far as latent heat. If you have large scale lift, you will be lifting lots of air up. As this air cools due to the lapse rates/adiabatic effects, you will eventually change this warm air into cloud droplets or water droplets (i.e. condensation). Condensation is a phase change and you will end up releasing latent heat. If your lift is quite large, you could release lots of latent heat which end up creating warmer air aloft and may result in a substantial warm layer developing which may be enough to give you mixed precipitation with only surface temps in the lower 20s.
The opposite would be where we have evaporative cooling and as cold precipitation falls through a dry cold airmass. Here you would get the precipitation to evaporate, which would an example of the latent heat of vaporization…which is a cooling process and would allow your temps to drop at the surface as precip falls. We saw this in east KY earlier this year.
The models don’t pick up on this stuff very well as it is such a small scale. The higher resolution models do somewhat better though.
If the MCS’s down south are stealing the moisture transport to the north, then why do I see the entire state of Ohio covered in rain?
You do see rain, but what you don’t see is intense heavy rains that were forecast here. And that’s because the moisture is being consumed south of us.
There is a band of heavy rain in Eastern Knox County atm was hoping we would escape it but guess not
Something I found interesting. I have the AccuWeather application on my iPhone, mainly for its radar. The app also gives alerts for five days out and, of course, it changes according to the forecast. Sometimes it’s a bit difficult to believe, but I know it will change, and for the most part, it has only been a little off. However, I was SHOCKED to see the AccuWeather precipitation outlook for the next four days for the Ashland area (today included):
Today – 0.39
Thurs – 0.33
Fri – 4.02
Sat – 0.10
I know we’re going to be getting a lot of rain over the next several days, but four inches on Friday? Any thoughts why their computers are putting out that much rain, while every other forecast I’ve looked at has nowhere near that much for this area in one day?
plus this area has not had nearly as much rain as east ky.
If we got 4 inches in one day we would have to build an ark but i did find this total from today through Monday
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Some heavy rain/storms popping up now across the east.