Good Evening everyone. The next round of heavy rain and thunderstorms we have been advertising will be arriving Wednesday from southwest to northeast. Eastern Kentucky is now under A FLOOD WATCH for Wednesday…



Kudos to the fine folks at the NWS in Jackson for getting ahead of the game by throwing the watch out there. It is more than justified given how much rain has fallen in recent days. The NWS in Louisville does not see things the same way and I was taken back a bit with the first line of their discussion…

I HAVE DISCOUNTED NAM WITH ITS NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM
AND HAVE RELIED ON THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

Well low and behold the GFS is correcting it’s famed feedback bias of being too far south and east and is trending toward the NAM in terms of the axis of heaviest rains…


While I do think the NAM is too far northwest… the model has been consistently farther northwest than the GFS with tomorrow’s Storm cluster. It also did better with the Sunday system as the GFS was again too far south and east with the heaviest rains. You simply cannot just take ONE model or run as the gospel let it make the forecast for you. Bad way to go there my friends!

Anyway… another round of very heavy rains will be moving northeastward across the state Wednesday. Unlike the last go around… thunderstorms could add to the rainfall and we could even see some strong storms.

Round 3 is waiting in the wings for later Thursday into Friday.

I will have a full update coming later tonight. Take care.