Good Sunday to everyone! The title of this blog is probably what many of you are asking when it comes to the weather across Kentucky. While we have had some rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms… the heavy rain has been a no show so far. Well… our Sunday and Sunday night will try to change that up a bit.
A couple of things happened to keep the heaviest rains out of here so far. First was that our front made it farther to the south than it looked like it would a few days ago thus bringing in a drier and cooler northerly wind flow. We also had the big time storms roaming across the deep south interrupting the northward transport of moisture into our region.
Low pressure is developing along our stalled out front and will bring it back to the north a bit by Tonight. This will mean rain and some thunderstorms will overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Rains will become heavy at times as well. Just how far north will the heaviest rains get? That is where we find the models battling it out with one another. The NAM is farthest north and west with the heavy rains and the GFS is farther south…
The past few days would lead to the GFS probably having a better handle on the heavy rain swath, but I am concerned it is suffering from some convective feedback issues. Regardless of which model turns out right… our Sunday will turn wetter as we go through the day into tonight and you can track the progress of the rains here…
The rains will begin to taper off from west to east on Monday as temps likely run below normal once again. Much of next week will see temps returning to normal but with an active pattern continuing… the chance for showers and storms will be with us every couple of days.
That’s all I have for you guys right now. I will watch the heavy rain threat and have updates as needed. Until next time… take care.
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Thanks Chris for the update!
thanks for the update, Chris. Justs let me know if we need to drag out the ark! 😉
I agree, the Derby was indeed an unexpected surprise. But it was enjoyable. Everyone stay safe, and watch out for water ponding on the roads and overflowing out of ditches.
we got 1 and 1/2 inches of rain here so far (belfry). we’re expected to get another inch today. 1-2 in. tonight and 1 in tomorrow. that would be bad if they had to cancel schools right in time for the CATS Test!
I only have 0.48in in Williamson.
well, i’ve been constantly watching the radar. if you’ll notice, there has been tiny little yellow and orange cells go over near the ky virginia line. we have been hit by a lot of those, with substantial downpours.
From the NWS in Jackson
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
FLOOD WATCH…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009
…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO EAST
KENTUCKY TONIGHT…
.THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. ROBUST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING LATER TONIGHT AND AS
A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY.
KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>120-040400-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FF.A.0002.090504T0000Z-090504T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-
KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…PRESTONSBURG…HINDMAN…
HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS…IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…MARTIN. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY…LAUREL…MCCREARY…PULASKI…WAYNE AND
WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…BELL…CLAY…FLOYD…
HARLAN…KNOTT…KNOX…LESLIE…LETCHER…PERRY AND PIKE.
* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
NOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE FALLEN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY AND AS A RESULT THEY
ARE PRIMED FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE GROUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA
ALREADY QUITE SATURATED…EXPECT THIS RAIN TO LEAD TO QUICK RISES
ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS INTO MONDAY MORNING…WITH THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. ALSO…SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE
RIVERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR INTO THE DAY TUESDAY POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO RIVER FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Bourbon County is patiently waiting for some rain. It’s been in the forecast for days but so far the rain gauge shows about 3/10ths of an inch for the week. We could use and inch or two before things start to heat up again.
The radar shows that rain is over us but nothing is hitting the ground. Not yet anyway.