Good Friday everyone and thanks as always for dropping by the blog. We have been advertising a very stormy and wet period for several days now and it appears we are on the cusp of what may turn out to be one heck of a heavy rain producer over the weekend into early next week.

Before we get to the overall setup for the weekend… let’s talk a bit about the weather today. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be rolling eastward across the state. These will have locally heavy rains with them and we will have a shot at some strong or severe storms later this afternoon into the evening. Round number one will be rolling across the region as we start this Friday then we may catch a break before the next cluster of rain and storms moves in. Radar should be lighting up through the day…



If we can break out into some sunshine this afternoon… the threat for strong or severe storms will be on the increase. That will be especially true for central and western Kentucky and points south and west. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state outlined for a slight risk for severe weather…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Here is a little different map for the SPC showing the risk area, the latest watches and radar…

SPC Products Overview

A front moves into the area later tonight and puts the brakes on as low pressure begins to develop across the southern plains by later in the weekend. This front will hang around into early next week and will be the focal point for torrential rainfall as clusters of rain and storms move over the same areas day after day. Here is a map I have drawn for you showing the cause for concern…



The FLOOD THREAT reaches from eastern Oklahoma all the way to the northeastern states. That puts our region squarely in the risk for high water this weekend. Here is my first call on rainfall…



Man… that’s a lot of rain and the totals could actually go higher than what I am showing. Let’s hope we can get enough space in between the rounds of storms to preclude any significant flooding. I don’t like the setup for this weekend, though and will have many updates and will likely do some video updates.

Keep checking back with the blog for the latest updates on this Derby Weekend as it should be a busy one. Have a great Friday and take care.