A big hello to one and all and welcome to a new work week! Here we are coming off a July like weekend and we have one more day of the super duper heat before we head into a stormy pattern for the rest of the week.

Let’s put this hot spell in context for you. This is the hottest stretch April weather we have seen around here since 1990… a span of 19 years. In looking back through the years… only a hand full of years have featured a prolonged hot spell in April so what we are seeing is pretty darn impressive.

We have a chance to add to that 19 year stretch out there today as temps may go even higher than we have seen over the past few days. 90 or a few degrees better is once again a very strong possibility so we will keep watch on the record books yet again. What a pattern!! I know many of you are saying “this is going to be a scorching hot summer if we are already this hot”. Not so fast, my friends. I have warned you weeks ago about a “false signal” for summer coming toward the end of April and again in May. It is my contention that the heat we have now is not an indication of the summer ahead of us. I have my thoughts on it and will share those soon.

Heat busting showers and thunderstorms are ahead of us in what is sure to become a very active weather pattern for us for the middle and end of the week. The plains states have been hammered over the past couple of days with severe weather and I think this is the beginning of a severe weather week that should shift a little farther east toward us.

The folks who are in charge of severe weather outlooks and watches are known as the Storm Prediction Center. They put out risk maps for Days 1-3 and over the past year or so a 4-8 day general outlook map. One thing I have noticed is that, apparently, the forecasters there do not like the 4-8 day map. I say this because many days it is left blank looking like this…



The above forecast map was from last Tuesday. It was for the period of Friday through this coming Wednesday. The term “Predictability Too Low” makes me cringe. Why bother putting out a daily map if you are NOT going to make a forecast? Just stop doing it because it is embarrassing to NOT make a forecast. That is especially true when you say “Predictability Too Low” and then you turn out with a map from today that looks like this…



We had a rare HIGH RISK from the SPC on Sunday for the plains. My point is… if you get a high risk out of something that you had NOTHING for just days earlier… what the heck is the point? Either scrap the 4-8 day severe forecast or actually do some work on it and issue a forecast! Forecasting severe weather is hard enough on day 1 or 2. Of course you are going to have a lower predictability for days 4-8, but it does NOT mean there isn’t a risk!

Now we see the same thing on their latest severe weather risk map for the middle and end of this week…



Seriously… forecast or stop putting out a map with nothing. And by the way… there is LIKELY to be severe weather during the time frame from above.

Here is the setup for Wednesday through Friday…



The first front you see off the east coast will bring some showers and storms to us Tuesday. The back end of the front will hang up across our region meaning we have to watch our northwestern skies for clusters of thunderstorms developing and rolling southeast toward us.

The plains low will head toward the Great Lakes by Friday and sweep a cold front in here to start the weekend. This will put us into an area that will have to be watched for possible severe weather.

The colder air you see moving in from Canada will likely move in here at some point this weekend. No, this is NOT going to be like the recent chilly shots… but it will be much cooler for a day or two. Probably just a few degrees below normal as of right now.

We will track the heat out there today and be on records watch. Help us out by posting your temps this afternoon. Have a great Monday and take care.