Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pound the bluegrass state today and Tuesday. We’re likely facing a significant severe weather and flash flood threat during this time.
Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out…
– Clusters of thunderstorms continue to dive in here from the northwest to start the day.
– Damaging winds, a lot of lightning (LOL) and torrential rains will be possible with the early day action.
– A big complex of thunderstorms will then develop to our northwest later today and come rolling in here through tonight. This could bring widespread damaging winds to our region.
– There is the threat for a few tornadoes to form from this afternoon into tonight. That will especially be the case if we can get some supercell storms to fire up ahead of the complex of storms.
– Tuesday should find additional clusters of big storms developing across our region. Severe weather will again be possible.
– The flash flood threat continues to run incredibly high through tomorrow. Thunderstorms can drop several inches of rain in a short amount of time. This has the potential to inundate a few areas. I cannot stress enough to watch the flood threat!
I have you all set to track today’s nasty weather…
Today’s risk area
Current watches
Possible watch areas 
Constant updates and full breaking weather coverage comes your way today on WKYT-TV.
Stay safe and take care.
It’s a reverse of Where’s Waldo today where everyone tries to *not* find Jim Cantore near them.
Speaking of, I really wish TWC would hire Jim Ross to do in-studio commentary of the active footage they show with Cantore and their other people; “MY GAWD JIM, IT JUST RIPPED THAT TREE CLEAR IN HALF!!”
If Jm Cantore shows up in Louisville today, I’m leaving!
We joke about Cantore…”oh, crap….”
Hope this isn’t relevant today but here’s to lowering the anxiety level.
http://i.imgur.com/Jt2iOWg.jpg
Funny!
Looks like they’ve adjusted the categorical outlook farther to the west now as of 0845 7/13.
SPC’s latest update just came out. The Moderate Risk area has shifted a bit more to the west; Owensboro, Evansville, Land Between the Lakes areas still a Moderate Risk, but Lexington no longer (now an Enhanced Risk) and Louisville is borderline. Damaging winds still by far the risk with the greatest chances for most of Kentucky. Tornado threat now a tad lower for our area if not zero, the main tornado risk remains over Illinois.
Stay safe!
I have had my doubts there was much of a tornado threat to begin with and now the damaging wind threat is less unless you’re in NW Kentucky.
Still Flash Flooding is a huge concern I would think.
Well, almost all of Kentucky still has a relatively high risk of damaging winds, especially later today and this evening from a likely second wave of storms.
July tornadoes in Kentucky (and Tennessee) tend to be relatively few and weak anyway. Neither state has ever had a July tornado fatality, at least in recorded history. But there can always be a first time. Even an EF1 twister can destroy a mobile home.
Street flooding already in parts of Indiana, not a good sign 🙁 . The line that hit Chicago this morning now on Indianapolis’s doorstep. Kentucky of course would be next. Only a handful of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with this line so far but yes flooding is a big concern throughout the day.
Can they un-hype the hype? Moderate to enhanced and maybe to slight.
Yeah Im getting that unhype feeling from the SPC!
Think the next update comes at 11;30 from the spc…Sure was a big change from earlier..
Don’t let your guard down. I agree with Chris. Just look what’s coming right at us from the north.
Not really sure why the SPC decided to downgrade the risk (SPC probably doesn’t know either ) all the ingredients are there for big time storms. SPC is either spot on or dead wrong half the time. Louisville at 10:30am is sitting at 86 degrees with a dewpoint in the mid 70’s. Hmmmmm….. SPC let’s review here shall we
Eastern and North Central Illinois and Central Indiana now under a severe threat from the NWS storm prediction center
Timing is always an issue with these complexes. Main ring of fire exists just to the west. Early arrival should keep it just west of initial forecast. However, until that ring of fire pushes to our east, severe chances remain in play at least through Tuesday.
“It” represents most damaging part of storm complex
Local Louisville weather saying round 1 coming in earlier than initially thought, like 2:30 here.
Louisville NWS conference call continues to treat the ongoing risk as moderate despite SPC westward placement. Expects another line tonight and possibly another one tomorrow.
Do we anticipate the leading energy to strengthen as it moves south during midday heating/destabilization?
Thanks.
Dewpoint 75 in Lex.
MIKE S – What do you mean ring of fire just to our west? Could you explain?
Chris I respect the job you have to do.I really do.its just that there are people like myself who are afraid of storms so do you have anything to say to us to keep us from freaking out and having a panic attack?
I’m with you. Running my vacuum cleaner in the hall to drown out the roar of strong wind doesn’t work if we lose power!
The heat ridge just to our west. NW winds aloft love to initiate storms along the outer periphery of this kind of boundary.
Sorry…this comment was answer to MarkLex
I see. I just looked and the dewpoint is now 77 in Lex. That is a very high dewpoint. I once remember it was 81 or 82 during a heatwave.
Update from the SPC will be out in the next 10-15 minutes.
Could this turn into possibly a derecho event?
Somebody at work stated a met suggested this a possibility, but not who the met was.
Indianapolis wind damage…60-65 mph winds common
Looking at the flow of the map, it seems to be moving more east than west and central & east central are in the main spot more than western KY. Let’s hope it loses some juice on it’s trek our way. Seems though the moisture and warm air will keep it steady. Boo!
Looks like things are refueling nicely for round 2 later tonight..Reports of numerous trees down in Indy..Nws mentions much of Central ky for moderate risk..Derecho winds..
Back under the moderate risk. SPC Lol
You guys look less as of the brunt the more it moves south. It is moving south-east so far. At least on the map above.
Yeah,I would even say it weakened some. Might pulse back up. I don’t know?
looks like its starting to move more south now..Central ky is gonna get hammered if this thing holds together
Missed your post. Yep, looks that way.
FWIW, the person at the SPC who put out the latest update is saying that the MCS that is bearing down on Kentucky will INTENSIFY and that will increase the damaging wind threat up to a Moderate Risk.
I believe it. Because the dewpoint is high and humidity is very high for what the actual temp is outside. 87…..It seems like perfect ingredients to intensify…….I hope not…I hope it splits or something…..I used to crave things like this, but not anymore…….
Fuel
You would probably crave events like this more if you live in SE KY where all the T-storms lines and individual cells usually fall apart before reaching the area. But then again, I would not want to kind of damage most of Central and Eastern KY has been getting lately…I do hate missing all of the action all of the time though:(
I was never a fan of bad summer storms due to damage and power, but after the two big snows in a row, I am not a fan of those now either. My back still hurts.
High end watch…probabilities greater than 95% for widespread wind damage, including a 60% chance of at least one report for hurricane force winds.
Heading more due south now. Was favoring more SE.
Boo!
Although warning is in place in Jefferson county, I am going to station myself just east of my current location in Valley Station. Probably near Fairdale and Okolona, closer to the I-65 corridor.
Looks like a big red chunk on the radar is about to smack Louisville.
Man, the area between Lexington and L-ville look to get crushed based upon the best reflectivity and curve on radar at this very moment!!!
If you call 45 mph winds and some rain getting crushed then yeah.
That weak!?! If that is all you all are getting there, it will be nothing more than a T-shower by the time it reaches me!!! Radar reflectivity is not enough to tell the full story, is it?
That would be better than the ominous implications by some media folks so far 🙂 I am hoping for less energy from the systems 🙂
Cards, that describes what we got where I’m at in SW Ohio. But there has been damage reported in the Cincinnati area.
Like Chris has mentioned, I hear another wave will likely blow through overnight that could be worse than this one.
It better be impressive. Because if not then all the hype for days by the media wasn’t really necessary.
Not really. It’s so expansive. If it saves even ONE life, it is worth it.
In their defense it is hard for them to win. If understated and hit bad they would be even more dinged.
Well what disgust me the most is when they try to make it seem worse than it really is. They show one random tree limb laying on the ground and try to sell it for all its worth.
My favorite is when reporters are sitting in boats talking about a flood and people walk past them laughing and waving 🙂
Wave 3 is still on the air talking about nothing. They have been on since 1 p.m. Every other station in Louisville went back to regular programming awhile ago.
At the rate the whole system is moving, I would add that the T-storm watch is going to be cancelled early too!
Can you say blown significantly out of proportion?
I much prefer that to having events downplayed and being caught off guard.
I completely agree; I’m just simply not a fan of causing panic and hysteria. Some people are terrified of storms and to hear Micah Harris say on air that this event is not weakening and that there will be flooding issues is taking things too far.
The flooding is the story. The wind not so much. Sure you had a tree down here in there. Maybe tonight I’ll have to eat my words? At least Chris kept hammering home the flooding issues. Everyone else was talking about 70-80 mph winds. Like I said, we will see tonight if that pans out?
What are you talking about? We’ve had all kinds of flooding issues. Take a chill pill.
Addendum: I did not mean to suggest I thought today’s events were blown out of proportion. 5 miles up the road from me, 60 or 70 houses were flooded, people are in shelters, cars in the creek. Pretty bad stuff, imo.
Elk,
You are incorrect.
Here in Johnson County several houses are completely destroyed from the flooding. Water rescues are ongoing throughout our community and lives have been lost. A twelve year old child was forced to cling to branches on a tree to survive the flood waters. Sir I think you should look around and be thankful for the hype so to speak because it could have saved lives today. It’s complete devastation here.
I for one was glad round one here didn’t do much. With the flooding rains the east end of Louisville received yesterday, there were plenty of flooded basements, and cars nearly underwater. Although I do love a good storm being a child of a meteorologist, could do without the damage they bring. :o)
You can see the mountains tearing apart the storms as the line is losing some color and consistency on radar entering SE KY!
Got to complain chris. Sorry.
Wkyt live feed is nothing but commercials. Had it on since 4:05, all i watched was commercials.
Just now switched it to 57 wymt feed.. it works.
Have station look into this.
So far so good here at my place. But just down the road the road is covered with water and some parts of the country are flooded. Creek is way up as well. Hearing some reports of flooding in other places as well.
Seeing that we are supposed to have more strong storms tonight. Which will probably have big rain. Then more storms tomorrow and tomorrow night if the forecast for my area is correct.
Good job on the forecast Bailey. Seems like people need to keep an eye out for more flooding. Even in areas not so hard hit yet here in eastern ky.
We have a huge tree down and part of our barn roof was blown away. The entire yard is covered in sticks and leaves. The sky went completely black around 3 and the wind was very strong.
To me, this storm was bad!!!
These lines of storms like this are strange in that you think the entire line will be horrific as it moves through, but there are weak spots within the line and very strong spots within the line…..I couldn’t believe how DARK it got mid-afternoon, but at my place it really wasn’t that bad, but I could tell on the radar WHY it wasn’t that bad…..I’ve seen much worse here before but other places you could tell on radar got hit much harder.
Yeah,it was very hit and miss earlier. You can already see on radar storms firing up in Illinois,Missouri,and Wisconsin. Round two.
A neighbor had all her outdoor tables and chairs blown into her pool, plus lots of broken tree limbs. Another neighbor lost two huge trees in her front yard.
The North Middletown/Little Rock area east of Paris took a hard hit.
Do we have any timing on round two? Man…I saw Chris say that it might be worse?! Really???
It was not that bad in north Richmond, so perhaps same for next batch 🙂
Lorraine,It could be worse. Nothing is set in stone though. My favorite thing about today. I just read on the Wave 3 weather blog that the wind damage potential is a 10/10 for tonight and flooding is 9/10. Five minutes later on the same weather blog flooding will be the main issue for tonight.
Let them have their adrenaline posts! 😉 🙂
Frick. nocturnal supercells. I’m so tired of this, I think I might move back to hurricane country.
If bad storms are your thing, happy to disappoint you 🙂
There is a tropical storm in the Atlantic off the northeast coast. You will have to move to Nova Scotia Bill if you want to experience it.
Awful, awful pics coming in from Johnson and Rowan co. I feel for those folks.
Wow, just woke up to a much worse storm than the one that blew through Berea about 4 PM yesterday. This overnight activity seem so much stronger which seems counter-intuitive but there you have it.
Time to go scope out what’s happened in the area before the next wave hits!
Marathon Man CB…you’re going to need to rest. Analogs for today are bullish for severe storms this afternoon.
Incredible rainfall rates in Jefferson County…St Matthews is getting hard hit with 4″/hour rainfall rate. I saw another automated rain gauge in the eastern part of the county register 5.40″/hr.
WAVE 3 has been terrible since Belski was forced out and Harned became the Chief.