Good Thursday, everyone. Our break in the rounds of storms continues today as nice air continues for many areas. All of that is about to change as we get some serious steam to push into our region for the coming weekend. The closer we get to the weekend, the more and more it looks like scattered storms try to crash the party.

Tired of the summer talk? If so, I have some fall and winter talk later in this post. Winter weather lovers rejoice! 🙂

Highs today will be in the low and middle 80s across central and eastern Kentucky. Readings will push 90 in the west with humidity levels making it feel hotter.

Temps by Friday reach 90-95 in the west and may push 90 across central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels will make it feel unbearable. Heat index values around 100 will be possible for many with 105+ in the west. The steam continues into the weekend, but with a catch. That catch is… Wait for it… Wait for it… Scattered storms.

GFS

The trend for storms has been increasing a bit, so we will have to keep a close eye on that. A cold front approaches the region from the northwest by Monday and Tuesday…

GFS 2

The pattern for the next two weeks may try to actually skew normal to above instead of normal to below. Just something to keep an eye on.

This is the time of year I start looking around to see what some of the seasonal models are forecasting for the fall and winter ahead. The strengthening El Nino is likely to be strong or even reach “Super” status. No matter what some will say… the placement, timing and strength of this El Nino has no true analog.

The seasonal model from NASA shows our region near normal from August through October…

NASA Model

That same model run from November through January (as far as it goes) has a cold look for much of the country…

NASA ModeL 2

The latest CFS seasonal forecast shows a similar trend. Here’s the December-February look…

CFS

Notice how it grows even colder if we focus on the January through March period…

CFS 2As I said a few months ago, this El Nino is fascinating to me because I can’t really find anything to compare it to. Fun times!

Have a great day and take care.