Good afternoon gang. The SPC is watching parts of western and central Kentucky into Tennessee for a possible TORNADO WATCH. Here is their map and discussion…
AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281758Z – 281930Z
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ALONG A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AMIDST MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 19-20Z.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 993 MB LOW NEAR SGF WITH AN ARCING
COLD FRONT FROM CGI TO TUP. BREAKS IN LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS AND
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO AROUND 70 F ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY…WHILE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 60 F GIVEN DOWNWARD MIXING/ADVECTION.
WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION…MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES OF 600 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE COMMON.
AS THE CYCLONE OVER THE OZARKS PIVOTS NEWD…LARGE-SCALE FORCED
ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS AN INTENSE /90 KTS AT 500 MB/ S-SWLY
MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY 21Z…WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4-KM WRF-NSSL AND 12Z GFS. WITH
BACKED S/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW…DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG
/AOA 60 KTS/ AND WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. WHILE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LAPSE RATES /AS
SAMPLED UPSTREAM BY 12Z LZK RAOB/ AND THE VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
I will have an update once the watch comes out. Take care.
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Thanks Chris…keep us posted.
I’ll admit it……around 2:30 this morning the radar didn’t look like it would be favorable for severe weather—the low wasn’t in the right position, moisture was poised to move in….but now the low has pivoted more north, the moisture has literally split over us, and we’re getting the heating of the day with a partially sunny sky.
Glad I woke up.
So what does this mean for Monticello?
Severe storms scare me so I’m freaking out right now.
No need to worry yet, Chris will give updates if things are to get any worse.
The SPC highlight zone is where they think the storms will form. From there, I personally can’t say which way they’ll go because supercells (if that’s what pops up here) have a tendency to move wherever they want to, but in a fairly fixed direction…..it’s kind of complicated to explain. lol
Just keep your TV on in case the weathermen need to break through later today. Anytime the SPC mentions supercells my ears always perk.
I’m just a casual weather watcher, but the radar doesn’t look like much of anything to me. Hope it stays that way. Cloudy and chilly here right now.
Sun is coming out here in Jessamine county, still pretty cool though, but I know the sun is NOT a good thing right now
what time is 20-21 z does anyone know
Wendy, that’s what happened to me earlier…the radar deceived me. Don’t let the radar fool you, as (For a little while anyway,) nothing will be there. And then the storms will explode. The dynamics of this storm system will (if the SPC is to be held to their wording) cause storms to virtually come up “out of the blue.”
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
TORNADO WATCH 91 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KYC003-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-085-091-101-107-139-141-
143-149-157-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-290200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0091.090328T1920Z-090329T0200Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAYSON HANCOCK HENDERSON
HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN
LYON MARSHALL MCLEAN
MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG UNION
WARREN WEBSTER
Firefighter, 20-21z depends on your location. For us, 20-21z is between 4 and 5 pm. For folks out in western kentucky it’s between 3 and 4 pm. Either way, the storms are expected to pop in the next hour to hour and a half.
Looks like storms are popping near Paducah
I was wondering about the radar too.It looks like it split and missed us,is that why they call them pop up thunderstorms? I know in the summer there is all that heat but what causes this in the winter or early spring?
Crystal, I was watching TWC earlier, I know they arent the most reliable, but they said there would be a second round of severe weather this afternoon and evening that would affect us.
Watch is up now…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0091.html
Thanks, I’ll keep an eye out.
Is it expected for these storms to weaken out some as it gets dark or will they rev up? Is it likely that the tornado watch area will move eastward (even more) or will that threat diminish? Thanks for the info. I really don’t like severe weather hitting after dark!
Looks like the storms are inching closer and closer, from the looks of the radar. chris, how long do you think before this stuff starts calming down a little bit?
thanks and stay safe, everyone. So far, when I look outside, all I can see is the clouds moving very fast to the northeast, and the moon shining.
Temp is still pretty warm though. At 9:00, it is still 70 degrees here.