Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog! Today is shaping up to be yet another very wet day across Kentucky… especially into the early afternoon hours as low pressure moves across the area.
Some of the rains will be locally heavy and we will have to watch water levels across the south as this is an area that has actually had some decent rains over the past few weeks. Here is the radar…
Some rumbles of thunder will be possible as well. Local amounts of an inch or so will be possible with this latest round of rain. This will be a quick moving system and will be pushing to our east by later this afternoon into the evening meaning some clearing will try to take place from west to east. Winds will be gusty and highs will head toward 60 again and maybe even higher than that for areas that do clear out.
The next storm gathering strength in the plains Friday is likely to become a big time severe weather producer for a lot of people. I can’t help but look at the computer model maps and think WOW! This can really become a major outbreak if everything falls into place. Check out what I am talking about…
That is an impressive set of maps from the GFS there folks! The best threat for severe weather around here will come Friday night into Saturday. Many factors will go into just how big of a threat this will be around here. But, it is something to really keep track of over the next few days.
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Kentucky in a slight risk for Friday…
Here is the Day 3 outlook for Saturday…
Click on it to pull it up full. I had to post it like that as the latest update was not available by the time I finished this blog.
One thing I have noticed with the overnight outlooks from the SPC in recent weeks is that they tend to be way to conservative with the risks. It seems the day shift folks come in and upgrade and I would expect the same thing to happen at some point today as I just cannot see areas to our southwest not being in a moderate risk for Friday!
I will have an update coming later this afternoon or this evening to update the severe risk this weekend.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
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Thanks Chris!! You do a great job!!
Still watching Saturday closely… Looks like we might be in at least a Moderate Risk soon.
well I hope you all the gave me hell are ready to lick my boots, cause as I said over a month ago, BILLY G is gone.
and he is.
now is it DONAVAN or CALIPARI?? well I put my money on Donavan to be announced monday, but we will see.
Yep, you did say it and it looks like it is about to happen! You also mentioned some player changes, too – anything more about that? (Or at least I think you did! If not, my apologies!)And what about Rick coming back? I kept hearing his name pop up yesterday as well – but then again, you always do. LOL! I kept hearing that he isn’t happy in L’ville and he may consider it? And what about all the rumors about Dan Issel?
And weather wise, a steady rain this morning! It is one of those “stay in bed with a cup of coffee, reading the paper” days.
Well, I head to West Kansas tomorrow to visit my grandparents, just when they are predicting a blizzard! They are calling for 8-16″ with winds 25-40mph! I only hope its not enough to close I-70, or I could be in for some not-so-fun times (could be regardless)!
Ricky P…please come back and make UK basketball what it should be again.
florida was in the NIT as well for 2 years in a row.
I think you wrong Rolo. Billy D is not who we will get. Calipari maybe, or Jay Wright, Patino’s name may come up, if Donavan is coach of UK Basketball I will Break my commemorative Makers Mark bottles and start drink’n Dickell!!!lol I still think Billy G will be our coach next year!
Well good soggy Thursday morning to everyone. Chris, I didn’t get to check the rain gauge at the house before I left for owrk, but I did have a river running down the drain way, and the rain woke me up a couple of times during the night, it was so hard.
I really hope we can deter the severe stuff a little bit, if not altogether! Wxman, thanks for your imput yesterday. I guess we are just going to have to really keep an eye on it.
Chris, I know you will be on top of things, and will keep us advised as well. Thanks for all the hard work.
As far as UK goes…I am not a BG fan really, but I still think it may not be the wisest thing to do to dump him after two seasons. JMO. But they will do whatever they do, and we will soon know. Stay dry out there, and have a good day. Stay safe on the roads!
Looks like the new NAM is taking the low up the MS River and sort of along the OH River…similar path to previous runs. It is going to be a close call but the main severe wx threat might stay in Tennessee. Waiting for GFS…
the timing is a bit later in the day which would allow for more instabilty. 30% for a day 3 risk is rather high portions of the south and tenn valley will likely see a moderate if not high risk. the nam also has a second band of storms which forms sw of the low sat night.
Actually, per the NAM, the warm-frontal storms Friday evening might be the ones to watch for us. I’ve seen that happen before…
The afternoon discussion from LMK is out, and it looks like they agree with me. Friday evening we could see our main show with strong/severe warm-frontal storms. Then Saturday is iffy..
Actually, Rick is happy in Louisville and indicates in his last book that he and his wife will have a permanent home in Louisville when he retires. I don’t see him back at UK but then, anything’s possible…….
I HOPE THE SEVERE WEATHER STAYS AWAY FROM ME…HATE IT!!! DONT WANT IT!!! DONT LIKE IT….
……………
What about the blizzard in the midwest, nothing short of amazing!!!…just heard on the weather channel snow drifts in AMARILLO COULD REACH 10-20 FT..!!! WOW!!!…they are saying its gonna be the worst blizzard for the area since 1992…Hmmm..wonder if that means ky. gets an EPIC snowstorm in APRIL!!!….I HOPE NOT!!!…but I think I’ll take the snow over TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…ANY-DAY-OF-THE-YR.!!!…
be careful what you wish for the 12z euro has snow for us next thu-fri.
it won’t take much to get things going late sat pm. i think all three batches will have a severe threat with them.
going back to what i had a few days ago for sunday’s highs my thinking has been 40 ish and the nws& others had 60 ish for several days. now there down to 46 for a forecast high i’m in the low 40’s bluegrass and have gone up to the upper 40’s east only b/c the front will be slower to clear the region.
my forecast method for sunday along with chris’s does not soley depend on the mos and climatological norms for temp forecasts instead i look at the models and raw data adjusting from that, just another example why the mos is garbage and will get burned again by at least 15* looking at it from a few days out.
Ahhhhhh, but Mitch, you see, that is the kiss of death for it, since it is stuck in the old “seven days out” spot! 😉
Actually, I can remember when I was growing up that we got a couple of our biggest snows in April. So, anything is possible, I guess…..
Speaking of the rain, we have had a total of an inch and a half since the first round began. So, if there is a possibility of a “soaking” rain again over the weekend, we could very well have some flooding. (minor) We actually had a little bit of sunshine and blue skies this afternoon. And then the temp went up a bit…now it’s cloudy again. ~sigh~
Well, b-ball is on, and I have a pool riding on this, so, i am gonna HAVE to watch some of it… 😉
So, what happens with BG, and UK? Is he out? Is he still in? Did Jodie REALLY miss shots to get rid of him?
Stay tuned, all these questions and more will be answered on the next episode of “SOAP, Kentucky Style” 😉
80-20 billy gets a pink slip.
sun duel for lex
a few days ago
me-40
nws/others-60
now
me-43
nws-46
why???
they rely on the mos which as i have gone over several times is a useless temp model which bases temps off climatic norms. use raw data folks, it saddens me some forecaters get burned over and over again by the mos and never learn.
Typical 7 day snow
i do not look foward to severe weather for the weekend. i hate it. im like tim, ill take snow and even the ice word over severe thunderstorms any day of the week, any hour of the day. i do not have cable, nor do i have any internet right now, only way i have to keep up with the weather is on my ham radio on the weather frequencys. i dont like severe storms when i can not see a radar via internet or live tv. hope we dont go in the moderate catagory, but with a 30% possiblity on day 3 for us, we very well could have a moderate or even a high risk. dont like that one bit. everyone stay safe during the next few days. it could get very rough around here in kentucky. (maybe i should of stayed in houston. dont think their severe threat was as high as ours is gonna be.)
Um, I think you need to read up on how MOS works. Its not simply based off climatic normals.
For what its worth, WHAS-TV in Louisville broke in during Grey’s and stated that they have independently confirmed that Billy G. is out. Apparently, they have very good sources…so they say.
Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a technique used to objectively
interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance.
using primarly climatic norms to interpret the model data.
lookign at the accuracy scores for our region the avg percent error is over 8% for 48 hrs which is rather high and can easily be over 4* off.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/verif/
snow showers still possibile sunday afternoon and my thoughts haven’t changed about the severe threat.