Good Wednesday folks! Rain has arrived across the state and it looks like it wants to stick around the state for the next several days. Waves of showers and some thunderstorms will be with us through Thursday with the potential for some more active weather over the weekend.
The rains today will be off and on and is actually a welcome sight to much of the region that has been very dry since late January. The radar takes care of all your rain tracking needs…
Low pressure will be developing to our southwest Wednesday night and will come riding through here Thursday with another round of rain. Some of this rain will be heavy at times… especially across eastern Kentucky.
GFS Thursday Morning
GFS Thursday Afternoon
Many areas can easily pick up an inch or more of rain today and Thursday.
By Friday… another big time low pressure will be cranking up across the southern plains states. A warm front is likely to be hanging out across our region and this will make for a tough forecast. Not only for temps… but also for the chance for the chance for some scattered showers or storms.
That storm is likely to provide a major severe weather outbreak for areas to our southwest late Friday and Friday night. Can this severe threat move northward into our region on Saturday? Yes it can… and that is something to really keep an eye on. The models are likely having some major convective feedback issues right now and this will lead to low confidence in the severe parameters coming from them right now.
The GFS is having some of those issues right now. You can see with this Saturday morning image that it clearly shows a “bullseye” to the rainfall near Louisville…
Anytime you see that… you can usually attribute it to feedback issues from this far out. Now… that is also suggesting to me that the model “thinks” there could be some big time thunderstorms around here! With the track of that low… it is certainly possible that we could see some severe weather to go along with high winds and heavy rains.
The cold comes in once the low goes by… maybe some flakes?
GFS Sunday Morning
The pattern after this does not look very pretty for the first week of April!! 
I will have updates as needed later today so be sure to check back in. Have a wonderful Wednesday and GO BIG BLUE!!!!
Take care.
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Thanks Chris….It might as well rain I have to work everyday from now to forever! No end in sight! The rain will match my mood!
Chris…lately I’ve been thinking…perhaps “more than flurries-less than a Snowstorm” the first week or two of April??! Everyone is gettin’ on my butt about that..I’m stickin’ to it….??! I easily see around 2-4″+ around Central/E. KY. this time…??! It may not amount to much far as sticking around, but I DO SEE IT??!
anything below a foot is unacceptable now, maybe if it was january it would be fine but you talking april screw that!!!!!
Looks like the GFS still wants to put us near the occlusion and that is an area where you can get some spin-up tornadoes sometimes. In any case, a severe squall line is also looking more likely Saturday…
severe threat for saturday with the current track most of the severe weather is south of us or clipping southern ky with more isolated severe in cent and north ky.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Morning everyone. And what a wet morning it is turning out to be. We have had close to 3/4 an inch overnight. And it is still coming down. Looking at the radar, it looks like we might catch a short break in a little bit.
Wxman, and Chris, what do you guys think of the possibility of severe weather for Saturday? Do you agree with Mitch, or do you have a different take on it?
And Chris, do you expect anything strong to come with this batch today as it moves east? Thanks!
I concure.
I work 7 days a week as well it seems. As least we’re working. Hope all is well.
Well, here’s my $0.02: With the new 12Z run of the NAM coming closer to the GFS, and the 12Z GFS sticking to it’s guns, I’d say confidence is high that the low tracks just to our northwest. Also, timing is slower. Therefore severe wx IS possible here in the LEX area.
I am sooooooo done with snow. Can we move on to the warmer weather?
WxMan…
You think this for Saturday? I’m only asking because a board I’m on has an event on Saturday. Just checking to see if we should plan to move some things inside. Thanks for your comments.
Thanks for your imput Wxman. I appreciate it. Wanted to be able to give my daughter a heads up, as they are having an event for possible incoming freshmen at her college this weekend. She does not yet have a weather radio, so Mom is the next best thing, other than this blog.
Yeah but the latest discussion from the NWS does not agree with me. They do not feel severe wx is going to occur here Saturday. So, there is nothing certain. It depends on the track of that low…so we’ll watch it..
What about Dodge City Kansas!!..man they’ve had 3″ of snow all winter long, and slightly above normal temps. and now they are expected to get a BLIZZARD in the coming days..YUCKO!!!…Blizzards,flowers,green grass in March,and APRIL just not a good combination…not by any means…
………….
Not a whole lot of rain here today, just breezy,with occasional shower from time to time..temps. right around 58*… Got the garden plowed, the grass mowed yesterday, flowers are blooming..ahhh..sigh, and double sigh!! that we’ve got to get through more cold, and YUCKY weather, dare I even say the ( S ) Word….LOL..!!..
later all
SPRING!!!…Come on down your the next contestant on ” THE WEATHER IS RIGHT!!..LOL..LOL..
What about Dodge City Kansas!!..man they’ve had 3″ of snow all winter long, and slightly above normal temps. and now they are expected to get a BLIZZARD in the coming days..YUCKO!!!…Blizzards,flowers,green grass in March,and APRIL just not a good combination…not by any means…
………….
Not a whole lot of rain here today, just breezy,with occasional shower from time to time..temps. right around 58*… Got the garden plowed, the grass mowed yesterday, flowers are blooming..ahhh..sigh, and double sigh!! that we’ve got to get through more cold, and YUCKY weather, dare I even say the ( S ) Word….LOL..!!..
later all
i’d pay alot of money to be along colorado front range right about now friend in evergreen says 12-18 inches expected!!
No Snow For Me !!!! 🙂
I need to get my garden plowed and planted…so I need Sunshine Please!!
The last few days have spoiled me big time..I hope all the bloggers and Chris Bailey are all doing GREAT !! 🙂
WELL HERE’S SOMETHING THAT AMARILLO TEXAS DON’T SEE EVERYDAY!!!…
…BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING…
…WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS REPLACES
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SNOWFALL WILL GET HEAVIER…AND STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THIS MAY FREQUENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR
LESS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME AREAS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE 12 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW BEFORE
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY
……………………………….
GOOD GRIEF WOULD’NT THAT BE SOMETHING!!..AND OUR LUCK HERE IN KY. THAT WOULD BE IT..BUT IN APRIL!!..:(
how long is this stomach virus lasting? my son has been to the er & they said it was all viral. he has had it since sunday & he has puked, had diaherra & a fever. it was high for a day or so now its low grade but he will not eat, hes drinking (thankfully) but hasnt eaten since saturday really. hes 4 & all hes wanted to do is sleep. its like hes in & out of it. Hes just so tired
Megan, that does not sound like a virus to me. It sounds more like intestional flu. I had that about three years ago, and it took me nearly a week to get over it. I was just so tired. Make sure that he keeps drinking, and if nothing else, give him some popsicles. they will taste good to him, and give him fluids at the same time. As far as eating goes, don’t force it, but try a couple of crackers in addition to the popcicles. Hope that helps.
Well, the Cats are out of it. All I heard on the TV all night was about how Ky was only using Meeks and Patrick. And how bad it would be if BG were to go. I wanted to just tell them that “Hey guys. Uh, who is the LAST SEC TEAM left standing in EITHER tournament? The KENTUCKY WILDCATS, that’s who!” Yes, they lost, and now the season is over. So, we rest a few days, pick ourselves up, and rev up recruiting, and get ready for next year!
Weather wise, looks like I need to plan on getting the wading boots out for the next little bit. Tim, maybe yo need to make sure that the pitch on the ark is in good shape. We just may need it! But, Texas can KEEP the blizzard! (But you are right, Now that we don’t want it, it will come! 😉 )
Ah well, almost bedtime, before long. I am looking forward to what your thoughts are on the weekend set up, Chris. Have a good night, everyone.
the rain will be ok, but i really dont want the severe weather.
thanks coffeelady. the er drwed blood & took urine & said it all looked good, but im like u, i think its the flu. his belly sounds like a jet going off, its just so tore up. hes so wek & tired & so pale. He does drink & is going to the bathroom so i know hes not dehydrated or he couldnt use the bathroom. its going around so bad yet our county is the ONLY one that hasnt closed down because of it, how i dont know cause I know there has been only 12 kids in a class at a time. theres so much going around, he could have a combo of all of it. many sleppless nights. nothing like when ur babies are sick, it tears me up. i have 2 girls also & im hoping that it doesnt just keep passing through the house. i would take it & keep it if thats what it took for them not to get this.
as for the severe weather the low track would keep the best threat to our south it could be quite a outbreak, if the track shifts nw more of ky could be in line the spc outllok takes the risk into southern ky.
the wed-thu storm for next week has also sparked my intrest i could see this one either as a winter storm or severe weather threat
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=ama&map.x=86&map.y=49
i have slept in my car behind a shell in boise, city oklahoma that town has amazing beef jerky, and apparently blizzard conditions with up to 12” by friday
hey Mike M…I was thinking of you today! You’re so right we are lucky. I just get so tired. 2nd shift leaves no room for a decent dinner meal or time with family. I miss all those things.