Good Thursday afternoon everyone. I promised to drop by with several updates on the threat for snow later this afternoon into tonight for the southern half of the state. Everything is on track for an accumulating wet snow in this area.
Instead of putting snow totals on the board right now… here is the breakdown of who our chances for seeing snow on the ground by Friday morning…
The area I have outlooked in the LIKELY category has a shot at picking up 4″ or more of snow through Friday morning. Yes the ground is warm… but this is an area that should be able to get in on a period of heavy snows this evening and tonight that can overcome the warm ground.
I toyed with upgrading this to an Alert area but decided not to but that may come this afternoon as I see more data. I was very surprised to see this area have not be under a Winter Weather Advisory. Based on the data… there is no excuse for the NWS in Jackson not having that out. I realize the situation a few weeks ago didn’t work out… but we cannot let one forecast rule the future because no two situations are exactly the same.
A Mix of rain and snow is lifting quickly northward out of Tennessee into southern Kentucky this afternoon. The leading edge of this will be evaporating and this will help cool the column of air even more allowing for snow and sleet to take over. Here is the radar for your tracking pleasure…
You can also track the temps here…
To recap… a wet snowfall is likely across the southern half of the state later today into early Friday. A part of southeastern Kentucky has a shot at getting in on a period of heavy snow that can put down several inches. For areas getting the snow… get your cameras ready because this will be a postcard snow! 
More updates coming later. Time to head to B-Dubs to watch the Cats! 
Oh yeah…
GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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35* and cloudy at Herrington Lake in Boyle County.
F5 Winter http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id17.html
Thanks for the update. I’m over winter but, I’m just into the likely area…causes a bit of excitement still! Enjoy the game everyone….GO CATS!!!
Thanks Chris…GO BIG BLUE!!!!
So nothing has changed with your forecast since yesterday?
Thanks Chris, I’m tired of winter, as is everyone else. But we’ll see if any of it hits northern Estill Co. It’s always good for pictures :-). And all of you be safe if you do see wintry weather.
I hope all of you are able to enjoy the Cats win a big game, they sure need a win. Personally I’m kind of rooting for my daughter’s favorite team, Gonzaga out of Washington State, who just won their tourney down in Vegas.
Have a great day everyone.
Well, I’m smack dab in the middle of your “likely” (Northern Perry County)… I say bring it on, I’m “high” on basketball at the moment and will be indoors in front of the TV anyway..
I love March Madness, even if the cats aren’t a part of it!
I LOVE Gonzaga!!!!!
Well Andy you will notice the outlook near 2am this morning lowered totals a little.
Just for the sake of discussion. That “big storm” potential meandering around the east for next week showed, get this, up to 2 FEET possible for portions of central North Carolina next week.
does the include snow include bell co. it loon’s to be so close.
I’m not tired of winter and i think there maybe 1 or 2 others thats not ;). Only winter we have had in SE KY is cold weather very little in the way of snow
does the heavy snow include bellco it to be close.
I sure hope we don’t get no snow and freeing weather in Laurel County, our fruit trees are in bloom and I don’t want a repeat of a couple of years ago when it came a freeze after they were in bloom and caused us to lose all of our fruit.
His area of how much snow did not load for me. Could anyone tell me about Johnson County?
once again battle of the models and forecasts i guess everybody missed out on last one i guess we see if its same gain this time
We have a very light sleet falling for about the last 20 minutes. The atmosphere has finally moistened up enough.
Mixed precip falling in Nashville can be seen on this less than perfect cam http://www.earthcam.com/usa/tennessee/nashville/
According to Chris’s map Johnson County is in the “likely” area to get 4 inches. All the other stations are saying only light to no accumulations for most of the area.
From the looks of that radar, we should be gettin’ “plastered”, “blasted”, “pounded” &/or “hammered” by the snow. But as of right now, nothin’ is happenin’ here. Wind is blowin’ & it is cold out. But no snow.
GO CATS!!!!!!!!!!
I was getting ready to say the same….is it just not hitting the ground, but on radar? Can one of you explain to us non-metrologists?
Thanks.
Nothing falling in Versailles.
It’s referred to as “verga”
Afternoon all. Just now got a chance to catch up from yesterdays blog. Still reading but wanted to stop by and tell you that we have light sleet here in Somerset. (At least where I am) and a temp of 36 right now.
Chris, I am in your “Likely” map. IF there is a good chance, then bring it! But I have to say if it doesn’t make it this time, I hope it’s over for the winter. I am ready for spring, too.
Gypsy, I don’t think you will have to worry too much with this one, as the temps are forecast to go back up some by the weekend, from what I am hearing.
Chris, keep us posted. Have a good afternoon, everyone.
Much of it looks to be only showing up as light precip (probably virga as already mentioned), with some pockets of moderate precip showing up especially along the TN border. Of course different radars show different things too…
Weatherundergound not showing any precip across much of eastern KY, except the south.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JKL&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=50&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=99&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
I feel the same way you do. If it’s gonna snow, bring it on. If not, BRING ON SPRING!
From the 2:21pm NWS Jackson discussion:
LATE UPDATE THIS MORNING TRYING TO DIGEST INCOMING MODEL DATA WITH
CURRENT EVENTS. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY
WARM…RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S PER KY HIGHWAY ROAD
SENSORS. DO EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN…MIXING WITH
SLEET…AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
ANY FROZEN STUFF WOULD DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
I.E. WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND TEMPS.
EVEN WITH WET BULBING…ATTM FEEL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THERE WOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH ANY ACCUMULATION SLEET
OR SNOW…BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY JUST IN CASE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY. MAY ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTRY MIX.
HOWEVER…EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
***UPDATE***
We now have snow/sleet mix falling, and getting a little harder as it is coming down. Temp is still holding at 36 degrees.
UK ACTUALLY WON!! GO BIG BLUE!!! And as a teacher who is in dire need of sleep, I hope this snow decides to make it a little further north to MOREHEAD! Oh yeah, GO MSU EAGLES!!!
GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!! I LOVE MY CATS
That’s from earlier this morning.
Winter Weather Adv. for Bowling Green. We have light snow falling…. don’t know why NOAA is reporting rain because it is snow.
Heavy sleet out my back door
…SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TONIGHT…
.A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
KYZ055>057-062>067-070>078-081-082-130300-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WW.Y.0006.090312T1900Z-090313T1200Z/
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…
SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…
JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
256 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009 /156 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009/
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY.
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WHICH HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT. AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
BOWLING GREEN TO RICHMOND INCLUDING THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. HOWEVER
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS EVENING AS SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY
DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TODAY/
LATE UPDATE THIS MORNING TRYING TO DIGEST INCOMING MODEL DATA WITH
CURRENT EVENTS. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY
WARM…RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S PER KY HIGHWAY ROAD
SENSORS. DO EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN…MIXING WITH
SLEET…AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
ANY FROZEN STUFF WOULD DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
I.E. WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND TEMPS.
EVEN WITH WET BULBING…ATTM FEEL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THERE WOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH ANY ACCUMULATION SLEET
OR SNOW…BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY JUST IN CASE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY. MAY ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTRY MIX.
HOWEVER…EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
Time stamp put on by NWS said 2:21 PM
Here is the one from earlier this morning
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
.SHORT TERM…/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12…THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND
TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT…WITH ALMOST ALL SNOW FALLING BY 4Z FRIDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS BOTH SUPPORT THE
RAIN SNOW SCENARIO PRETTY MUCH EXCLUSIVELY. WITH SOME EVAPORATION
COOLING EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH BELOW FREEZING FOR THE RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SLEET…BUT FREEZING RAIN APPEARS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR NOW. THE WARMTH OF THE SURFACE WILL ACT TO MITIGATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT…WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR BY
12Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TWO INCH AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW
WILL ACCUMULATE MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
Heavy sleet falling in London and 38 degrees.
Ok so I guess this is my punishment for wanting snow all winter. I have tickets for Montgomery/Gentry tonight in Corbin. I have to travel from Pineville. Am I in trouble???
That’s still from this morning, they just updated the aviation part of it. 😛
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-112>120-130215-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0007.090312T2100Z-090313T1400Z/
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…
LONDON…MONTICELLO…WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…
BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…PRESTONSBURG…
JACKSON…HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…
WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
333 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
EDT FRIDAY.
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING…AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL
BECOME LIKELY. IN GENERAL…UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND
EXPOSED SURFACES. RIDGETOP LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY
SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WHERE LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS…
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES…OVERPASSES AND SECONDARY ROADS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
$$
RAY
Thanks Mitch
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Eastern Kentucky.
😉
they are basically saying the same thing no frozen precip or very little but they are wrong as usual heave sleet still falling here and snow starting to mix
maybe LoL but you got our # it may turn out like last time but at least there is frozen stuff falling unlike last snow
Ok the joke’s over! It can stop anytime now. I don’t want to be out $80 in tickets.
Sorry Marilee 🙁
Think I should cancel Andy. So far the traffic is still moving normal up here. UGG! This could make me sick. 🙁
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p12_012l.gif
Looks like a good slug of moisture, although I still think it will trend NNW
If it was me i wouldn’t i would just becareful and allow myself time to get both places prob extra 30 min in each direction 80 bucks is hard to come by nowadays
Changed over to all snow here now.
thats typical trend NW and SE KY gets nothing again
Very heavy snow atm
THE ROADSA AINT GETTING BAD UNLESDD WE GO BELOW 32 TONITE AND THAT AINT HAPPENING IN CORBIN AREA.
LORD JUST CAUSE IT A SNOWING DONE MEAN U CANT DRIVE IN IT,LOL
GROWE A PAIR IT A GRASSY AND ROOF SNOW NOT A ROAD SNOW.
Heavy snow, temp. 31* ground is white…
hey you wanna good laugh on me??…well My computer had never updated to show Chris’s noon update…SO DUMMY ME has been posting all day long on this mornings blog…LOL…LOL…I even said where is everyone?…BOY OH BOY…so I was pretty much just talkin to myself all day…lol..lol…yeah good one I know…ANYWAYS!!!!!!!!!
SNOW IS HEAVY AND WET AND STICKIN TO EVERYTHING DOWN HERE.
Snow is fallin’ here now. Big fat flakes…..Come on Snow……
Way To Go Cats!!!!!!!!!!
Rolo, you are my hero once again!!! 🙂
Well wish us luck. We are leaving now. Pray as I know I will be.
i dont’ think we get a couple inches on the grass with there being nothing on the Road Rolo its just like Chris said we will have to wait and see when it gets dark it will make a difference no schools for Knox Whitley tomorrow if everything pans out
Snowing here in Laurel County right now. This is a improvment from times past. We usually start out as rain! And then get very little snow. We may still get very little snow but at least we are starting out with sleet and snow! That’s a improvment in my book. lol
You wanna hear another good one? Same was going on here and I did a reply to you! lol
Not a thing to report here in East Bernstadt [yet] – just cold and dry for now.
chas…its been sleeting here steady since about 1pm then it turned to snow and now its heavy snow with HUGE FLAKES!!!…FIGURES I would be in the bullseye of 4+ since I was ready for spring…LOL…oh well I’ll go over to the dark side while it lasts…then go back to spring mode tomorrow…LOL…:)
so i guess its going to warm up in Corbin from this point on ? cause its 32 now
It just started snowing in downtown Lexington
You haven’t even seen sleet? I was at Walmart about a hour and a half ago and it was simply pouring the sleet. The closer I got to home it was changing to snow.
I GOT SNOWFLAKES THE SIZE OF QUARTERS!!! AND BIGGER FALLING RIGHT NOW, ABSOLUTELY AMAZING!!!!!!!
flurries in versailles.
Hwy 11 in Barbourville is covered in spots
FINALLY! Heavy sleet has just begun here within the last 10 minutes. Waiting for the changeover….
Still Virga in Northeastern Kentucky… Was it supposed to start snowing this early for you guys that are getting snow?
Went from light snow to heavy snow. Starting to accumulate.
right now i have HEAVY,HEAVY SNOW FALLING..almost 3/4″ to 1″ on the ground…CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS AS WARM AS ITS BEEN AND SNOW STICKIN TO EVERYTHING EVEN THE ROADS!!!!!!….and my wife is just now coming home from work!!!!…I sure dont need another calamity this week…DRAMA…GREY HAIR..
Hence the name change. Of course it would snow, Im on spring break!
It’s the beautiful kind too!
Wow, the changeover from heavy sleet to moderate snow happened pretty quickly! As much as I want Spring, I have to admit, I’m pretty giddy seeing snow one last time. 😉
working on over a half an inch and no signs of stopping i just hope Marilee makes it ok since the roads are now covered in Knox county
Over an inch on the front porch
I just finished my plate of beans, ham and cornbread, looked out the window, and IT’S SNOWING in MARCH!!!!!! just thought I would share my info. gotta go get more cornbread.
It’s snowing! Just north of Hazard.
Wow!
Looks like thunder may be possible down near the Tennessee border.
1 1/2 inches of snow in Knox County numerous wrecks in Knox and Whitley. So much for roads not getting bad
well heavy snow turned back to heavy sleet for about 15min.. now its back to heavy snow again and its a MESS DOWN HERE WRECKS EVERYWHERE!!! ROADS ARE snow and sleet covered….anywhere between 1-2″ on the ground…
just light flakes in southwest lex
Came out of retirement for this one…..love winter blog only….looks like Chris’s false spring forecast held up…..Ackerman was droning this morning about “nothing really to pay any attention too”….I think he was describing his forecasts….wtg Chris!
34* here….had rain then sleet then snow around 3pm….nothing since, but looks as if it could begin anytime….as usual Morgan County is split by Chris’s “likely snow” line and Meck’s accumulation line…amzazing….it’s like Morgan County is the Mason-Dixon line of SNOW, but it’s always a rush!
CORRECTION—-33* AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN IN MORGAN COUNTY…6:20PM