Good Wednesday everyone. As always I start with a big thanks to each of you for following the blog… I certainly appreciate it. The weather of the past few days has been full of some impressive cold. Now we make the transition toward some spring temps that will likely go along with several chances for rain and thunder over the next week. Oh yeah… winter is not done yet either.
Before the look ahead… let’s talk briefly about the cold. Much of the area hit the single digits Tuesday morning giving us 4 straight months of seeing temps that low. Lexington managed to hit 10 degrees which is tied for the 8th coldest March temperature since 1970. Consider we are doing it with a bare ground and the word WOW comes to mind.
Temps are slowly going to be recovering over the next few days. Highs today will head into the 40s in most areas as we see a mix of sun and clouds. Warmer air will then move in for Thursday with temps making a run toward 60.
Speaking of the 60s… we are likely to see temps well into the 60s Friday and Saturday. There will be some clouds around and the threat for a few showers will be there as well. If we can get enough sunshine… I can easily see a 70 around here! 
The pattern for the weekend into early next week will be a mild and windy one and one that looks increasingly wet. I am looking at a setup late this weekend into early next week that can lead to a pipeline of moisture streaming in here. This can lead to repeat showers and thunderstorms moving across the region. Considering this pipeline will be coming from the western Gulf of Mexico… it can bring a lot of rain to areas that get in on the action. Here is the GFS rainfall map from Monday through Friday of next week…
That is better than 2″ of rain the model shows in here next week. Just something to watch to see if that flow sets up like that.
Temps into the middle of next week will likely run warm ahead of a powerful cold front that the models are all jumping on moving in toward the middle or end of next week. This could be a big time severe weather producer for parts of the country. Check out the maps…
March 11th
That is a wicked setup to say the least with brutally cold air moving into the central plains! The next few weeks look wild folks with something for everyone likely on the weather menu. The Analogs for the ensemble runs are from some interesting periods of the past and they all point to winter not being over yet. 
I will have another update coming later today so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care everyone.
Select Page
Yeah, Chris, I see where you’re coming from with the discontent of the wintry weather. This winter has been one that’s been helpful and hurtful all at the same time.
Well, if we can’t get a thumping snow, then I guess it’s time for rumbling thunderstorms and breezy dry days in between.
What really gets my goat, though, is when that last system passed through, we actually had freezing rain for a period before it turned to a little bit of snow. With the low passing SO far to our south, and with SO much moisture being shunted off into Georgia and western Tennessee, and then east off into North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland, WHY did we see less snowfall as the dominant precip type? It absolutely makes no sense. You would think the tongue of warmer air would have been erased at the higher levels of the atmosphere.
Something about warm air here just really really likes us. Maybe it’ll play to our advantage in the future, who knows….
But I guess big snows are a thing of the ’70s and not the past 11 years…
If it can’t happen, it simply can’t happen.
=Aaron=
Chris, why can’t we get that setup you just showed with all of that being snow? What’s preventing it? That right there is almost exactly how we got some of our biggest snows around here in the 70’s. Big low south of us made for some huge snowfalls.
I know what’s going on, and no one will believe me. The southern stream has become so influential to our weather here that when it gets close enough to us, it makes all the difference between snow and freezing rain or just plain rain. But why? That’s what I plan on studying.
Hmmm…
What are the odds of, let’s say, a tropical system coming up from the gulf of Mexico (in March..hahah!!) joining up with a cold front that drops into the middle part of Tennessee? The tropical moisture moves east-northeast while the front itself moves east-southeast? Nah, that sounds like a system that would bury Virginia… geez….
The jet stream needs to phase just to our south and west if we want to get any type of huge snow here…and I’m talking middle Tennessee….say, west central Tennessee. Not the border, not the exact central, but west-central. And we need cold air that doesn’t stave off moisture.
Man, we’re really reaching now, aren’t we?
I hope winter isn’t over maybe us southerners can actually get some snow
Temps were a bust as well NWS forecasting 15 for a low only got down to 21 and at 6 am it was 25
Thunderstorms to maybe a touch of snow on the backside… gotta love KY weather ;D. I don’t care if the spring like weather is a false start, I need a few days of lows above 20 degrees!
Thanks Chris. Looks like these clouds are slowly breaking up, so hopefully most of us will see some sunshine by late this morning.
I vote to accept the first part of this blog entry right up to this statement:
I can easily see a 70 around here! Then completely block out or pretend the second 2/3 of the entry dont exist…LOL…I’m ready for spring to!! SUNSHINE AND 70* sounds MORE THAN GREAT TO ME!!
Good morning all. I am looking forward to topping 40 today. I’m tired of being cold and I’m tired of big heating bills. I want to see some sun on a warm day, and at least get a little teaser of spring.
Look how deep GFS makes that low in the midwest by Wednesday morning. Chris is onto something here..could be a bad severe wx week next week for sure. Need to watch this close.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_168s.gif
Isn’t March severe weather month?
I think Feb is becoming the new Severe weather months as last 2 yrs we have had outbreaks in Feb
Soooo Glad to see the warm weather coming in! Hope it stays this way I am done with winter! Come on spring!!!
We are at 38 here in Corbin, and boy doesnt it feel warm already compared to the last few days?
Are our climate patterns shifting here in KY? To me it just seems like we get TN’s old weather and its about a month ahead of what it should be. **This is just my completely non-scientific thinking our loud thoughts**
It is really starting to appear that Saturday is going to be a BEAUTIFUL day around the Bluegrass and eastern KY. I think we are going to see rain chances dropped to be very slim in upcoming forecasts. Firmly in the warm sector, the only rain we might see would be with isolated t-storm cells. Enjoy!
I think that for the middle of next week is another classic example of the gfs putting to much into the lead wave looks for more energy to linger in the southern plains and second wave to be stronger which would make for a longer period of unsettled weather into late next week.
i do think the ridge holds enough to squezze out rain free weather fri and sat.
Renee, yes, I think it is here is a web site to help people prepare for disaster. http://kyem.ky.gov/
Ok…are we finally all ready to chant it together? SPRING…..SPRING…..SPRING…..SPRING! I have been ready for spring since Dec.26th. I DETEST WINTER! My daffodils have peeked out of the ground…so that made my day!
43 degrees in Pikeville.I guess I am the only one that feels this way bring on a big snow lol!!!! I am A winter lover I can’t help it.Maybe its where us in the south hasn’t really had winter as far as snow fall is concerned some of you snow birds got fed this year we in the tropics did not lol!!!!!Bring back snow.Sorry spring lovers lol
43 already? I was just outside and it felt warmer yesterday bout 5 than it does now looking forward to 50 today
That is according to my Pikeville bank temperature lol!!!!
Guess it is right here is the temp maps
http://www.kymesonet.org/
just doesn’t feel that warm yet is all i was doubting you lol
Crystal, I’m not doubting you, it’s 44 here in London.
I know I am playing Andy lol!!!! How have ya been?
Gypsy I know you are not just messing with my good friend Andy
i am camping the 12-14th in indiana, bring on the -20s and snowstorm baby i am a mountain man!!! Jeremiah Johnson baby!!
Right there with you!
Doin so so i guess
49 and sunny here in Mt Sterling, kids are outside without jackets! And I do mean sunny, the sun has some strength to it that you can really feel now.
Of course last night it was still cold enough to freeze a lamb- so far 11 lambs, with 10 dead of the weather, directly or indirectly. A whole lot of which is not cold, but MUD- argghhhh, no more rain! If we are going to get it could it please be snow? Pretty please???? I’ll take cold over mud any day!
yo,yo
WHISKEY BENT and HELLBOUND today musac.
I havnt a clue what temp is er im at, I just got down with a 46 hour poker run.
and yes my luck changed, pick up a good chunk of change. going to take a nap and go back.
best game ive seen in 7-8 years. FULL OF MONEY.
u all have a go o d one, and ROLO SAYS TO HIS HOMIES, WINTER ISNT OVER.
4 INCH PLUS SNOW is a coming.
Thanks.
Good to see ya back rolo
Golly, I’m sorry about your lambs. So sad. What is it about the mud that is so dangerous for them?
Don’t say that Rolo. I know winter isn’t over, but I’m tired of this bearly covering the ground snow or the ice.
me to i hope we have some snow before its over
Normals for early March for LEX are low 50s for highs. Well if you look outside right now it’s sunny and around 50. So I guess this is a very “normal” day! 🙂 It’s a great change of pace.
need a couple more days of this to bring us back to avg at -17.8 atm
Yeah it’s going to be hard to recover from the first 3 days of bitter cold. Would take quite a number of days in the 70s this month to make it up. Not sure if that’s going to happen.
so your prognostication is we will be below normal for March ?
18z gfs more in line with what i’m thinking than the earlier runs for the middle of next week. it’s sure is going to be a wild ride.
I heard WeatherAmerica was forecast a snowfall potenially for the March 15th time frame with some good cold air end of next week.
BOYD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS-
*CLOSED THURS.
GREENUP COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS-
*CLOSED REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
OK there flip-flopper.
Evening all. It is good to get a chance to sit down and read the blog! Chris, we got up to 61 at my house today. Sure did feel good, too!
I liked seeing the sun today. It felt good. But Crystal, I will tell you that I still would not mind seeing a good snow. I just don’t expect one. And now that we are into March, I am getting the itch to get out into the flower garden. But if it should snow, that would be alright, too, provided we got enough to actually make it worthwhile.
Wxman, I had the same thoughts about next week. The one thing I really do not want is severe weather. Don’t like severe storms. Don’t mind storms, just don’t want severe ones.
Hard to fly a kite in snow, ain’t it? 😉
Have a good evening, gang, and thanks Chris, for the update. Looking forawrd to the next one.
Looks like its the ole NIT for the Cats. Can’t even beat Georgia at Rupp Arena.
I remember someone calling me an amateur when I said halfway through the season the Cats might not make the NCAA Tourney and that the SEC was one of the weakest major conferences.
Looks like I was right on this one.
Billy G could be in some trouble after this loss.
order up one pink slip for a Mr Billy G, the defensve stratagy leave them wide open really worked tonight they only shot 70% from 3. He’s lucky I’m not the AD b/c he would already be on vacation after the SC game. this is an awful way for me to go out as a UK senior the memory of the first UK team not to make the NCAA since 1991.
Had a few get angry at me a few weeks ago for saying UK was NIT-bound. Certainly looks that way after tonight. If Billy G wasn’t in hot water before, he sure is now…
Hopefully, someone learned from the mistakes made at UNC several years back and gets a new coach in before it’s two back to back years of NIT…one is bad enough, especially after having such a long-standing record of NCAA appearances as UK has.
The only positive that could come out of this is if Florida lost, which I know they were losing, but I don’t know the final outcome. But it looks as if UK could be a High seed …. in the NIT.
As as avid sport kite flyer, I’ve flown kites in thick snowcover at jacobsen park more times than I’d care to admit, even with snow falling… especially when I’ve gotten a fancy new one to fly 🙂
Billy G looking forward to Tampa and all the bars and Hootchie Coothchie girls!!! What the heck is a Hootchie Coothchie girl anyways??? How much will he blow on dollar bills??? I can see him having to play a nine o clock game after happy hour!!! “Take over for me, I gotta’ go whiz!” “Whooze a-hiccup-ahead anyways. Did we score a touchdown last time???”
next week is going to be wild with severe threats sunday and wednesday and a winter system to end the week!!!
the only hope in the sec tourney is to somehow get the E3 seed and play arkansas followed by auburn.